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Post by froome on Jul 26, 2013 15:02:47 GMT
As we don't get much to crow about in by-elections, just to note that 20 year old Green Party candidate Ian Welsh won the Green's first seat on Hadleigh Town Council (Suffolk) last night in North Ward, gaining 132 votes to Labour candidate Angela Wiltshire's 127.
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Post by marksenior on Jul 26, 2013 16:03:20 GMT
A further TC result from yesterday
Thorpe St Andrew TC South East ward Con 436 Lab 196 LD 193 UKIP 135 Con hold 2011 result highest vote for each party Con 1245 Lab 662 LD 378
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 26, 2013 20:24:32 GMT
Braintree, Braintree East - Labour hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 BE | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Labour | 461 | 46.6% | -0.3% | +4.7% | +4.2% | +11.2% | +11.8% | | Conservative | 267 | 27.0% | -5.9% | -14.7% | -13.7% | -6.3% | -5.6% | | UKIP | 194 | 19.6% | +8.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +3.4% | +2.7% | | Green | 67 | 6.8% | +0.4% | -9.5% | -10.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dems |
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| -15.1% | -15.6% | | No Description |
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| -2.7% |
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| | Total votes | 989 |
| -192 | -829 | -763 | -651 | -581 |
Swing Conservative to Labour 2.8% since 2012 by-election, ~9% since 2011 and 2007 East Northants, Thrapston Market - Conservative hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 396 | 43.1% | -12.4% | -9.5% | | Independent | 210 | 22.9% | -21.6% | -24.5% | | Labour | 166 | 18.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | UKIP | 146 | 15.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Total votes | 918 |
| -440 | -356 |
Swing, if meaningful, some 5% Independent to Conservatives Elmbridge, Weybridge South - Conservative hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2010 | since 2008 | | Conservative | 274 | 48.6% | -20.9% | -15.6% | -13.2% | | Lib Dems | 150 | 26.6% | +7.8% | -2.4% | +9.1% | | UKIP | 140 | 24.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour |
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| -11.7% | -6.8% |
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| -20.7% | | Total votes | 564 |
| -354 | -1,701 | -534 |
Swing Conservative to Lib Dems ~14% since 2012, ~7% since 2010 and ~11% since 2008 Kingston-upon-Thames, Beverley - Conservative gain from Lib Dems | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | since 2006 "top" | since 2006 "average" | | Conservative | 1,033 | 35.1% | +2.2% | +2.7% | +4.7% | +5.3% | | Lib Dems | 760 | 25.9% | -14.7% | -15.9% | - 17.9% | -18.8% | | Labour | 717 | 24.4% | +11.9% | +13.1% | +15.5% | +15.5% | | UKIP | 223 | 7.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 207 | 7.0% | -4.0% | -4.6% | -6.0% | -6.4% | | CPA |
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| -3.0% | -2.9% | -3.9% | -3.2% | | Total votes | 2,940 |
| -2,332 | -2,059 | -255 | -170 |
Swing Lib Dems to Conservative 8½% / 9¼% since 2010 and 11% / 12% since 2006 Lambeth, Tulse Hill - Labour hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2010 BE | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | since 2006 "top" | since 2006 "average" | | Labour | 1,575 | 69.3% | +17.1% | +18.5% | +17.6% | +20.3% | +18.8% | | Lib Dems | 277 | 12.2% | -19.3% | -15.5% | -15.7% | -5.8% | -3.0% | | Green | 177 | 7.8% | -3.0% | -4.1% | -3.6% | -14.3% | -15.7% | | TUSAC | 76 | 3.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 74 | 3.3% | -0.7% | -6.3% | -5.7% | -7.6% | -7.5% | | UKIP | 64 | 2.8% | +1.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent | 20 | 0.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | SPGB | 11 | 0.5%
| from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Total votes | 2,274 |
| -92 | -4,089 | -3,713 | -968 | -780 |
Swing Lib Dems to Labour ~17% / 18% since both May 2010 and July 2010 by-election and ~11% / 12% since 2006 North Somerset, Weston-super-Mare North Worle - Independent gain from Conservative | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Independent M | 531 | 25.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 471 | 22.6% | -27.5% | -26.4% | -23.8% | -24.1% | | Labour | 445 | 21.4% | -1.9% | -2.6% | +8.2% | +9.3% | | Lib Dems | 321 | 15.4% | -11.2% | -11.5% | -9.8% | -10.0% | | UKIP | 220 | 10.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +3.0% | +2.8% | | Independent L | 93 | 4.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent |
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| -7.7% | -7.9% | | Total votes | 2,081 |
| -498 | -352 | +43 | +105 |
2007 was a deferred election Swing not particularly meaningful but around 25% Conservative to Independent, who was a well known Conservative supporter Uttlesford, Felsted - Conservative hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Conservative | 557 | 54.1% | -24.9% | -24.4% | -4.4% | -3.8% | | Lib Dems | 253 | 24.6% | +3.6% | +3.1% | -16.9% | -17.5% | | UKIP | 181 | 17.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 38 | 3.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Total votes | 1,029 |
| -495 | -447 | -380 | -323 |
Swing Conservative to Lib Dems ~14% since 2011 but ~7% Lib Dems to Conservative since 2007
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 26, 2013 21:33:17 GMT
Thats a terrible result for the LDs. Very good for Labour (and good for the Tories of course). These Kingston by-elections have become unpredictable with the LDs holding up well in traditionally strong Tory areas like Berrylands and Surbiton HIll but suffering bad adverse swings in their own strongholds such as here and in Grove which they almost lost a while back Ahem, I think the circumstances of the by-election made it virtually impossible for us to have anything but a terrible result (how betrayed must the local populus feel?). Though there might be a trend elsewhere, trying to read too much into this result would be a mugs game. While I agree the circumstances were very bad for the Lib Dems, and also that both Kingston and Richmond have been swinging back and forth between The Tories and Lib Dems for thirty years now, (after decades of Tory domination), it is interesting that Labour managed to improve its position so impressively rather than being squeezed or just holding our ground. The contrast in the interviews with the Lib Dem and Labour candidates on the local website that David Boothroyd referenced for the mid day exit poll was quite telling. It would have been interesting to hear how the Tory candidate, now Cllr saw things. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 29, 2013 10:27:08 GMT
Close. Creditable UKIP results in contrast to most of the other results. Obviously the absence of Tory candidates will have helped though. Tory and UKIP combined outpolled Labour in Harwich in May and Labour tend to be stronger in the Eastern part of the town I think How far back does that go? I've got no idea about pre-2003 results, but in 2003 West seems to have been Labour's best ward - possibly the 2011 dominance in the east of the town was more a vote for Ivan Henderson than for Labour. The lack of a Tory candidate is probably related to the circumstances behind the by-elections - if the Callenders flounced off in a strop, I'm not sure the Tories had that many other fallback options in Harwich, and they may have preferred giving UKIP a chance to embarrass Labour anyway. |
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The Bishop
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Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 29, 2013 10:32:35 GMT
Ah right, hadn't realised that these were actually two Labour gains  |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 10:40:53 GMT
Ivan Henderson is leader of Harwich Town Council. He is an impressive campaigner, who I wouldn't be surprised to see re-elected to parliament over the next couple of elections, if he chose to keep campaigning. Even though the new seat seems less kind to Labour, it is not beyond the possibility of a good campaign.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 29, 2013 10:44:14 GMT
I can only see one reason for Ivan not to get re-elected - if he decides not to stand for re-election. Given he's now on the county council as well, I don't see any indication of that yet. Otherwise he's unbeatable.
He's also best known for being the MP for Harwich 1997-2005.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2013 10:51:51 GMT
He will have to overturn a 12,000 majority against an MP who will have been in situ for ten years by then, so it isn't easy but certainly possible in 2015. He'll still only be in his early 60s by 2019/20 so would certainly be a good bet then.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 30, 2013 10:21:00 GMT
He will have to overturn a 12,000 majority against an MP who will have been in situ for ten years by then, so it isn't easy but certainly possible in 2015. He'll still only be in his early 60s by 2019/20 so would certainly be a good bet then. Sorry, I think I misread your original comment. I see no reason for Ivan Henderson not to be re-elected to the town and district councils. I'd be extremely surprised if he managed to win Clacton in 2015, given that local election results in the town itself haven't been stellar in recent years and that Labour need to win it by a country mile to win the seat, given how unpromising most of the rest of the seat is. If anybody could do it it's Ivan, but a 14% swing isn't exactly easy to obtain. |
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Post by bill on Jul 30, 2013 16:29:30 GMT
Wellington Town Council (Taunton Deane, Somerset)
26 July 2013 Wellington East Ward, Town Council By-Election 25th July 2013
Results
Mark Lithgow (Lib Dem) - 269
Jill Mitton (Labour) - 113
Andrew Sully (Conservative) - 308
Con gain from Lib Dem
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