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Post by independentukip on Jul 22, 2013 20:52:06 GMT
It doesn't say much for your party that you're concentrating on whether UKIP will win or not. I see nothing which suggests anything other than Labour wins in both seats. I don't think that's the case. I expect Labour to win, because I expect Harwich UKIP to have no campaigning chops. But Harwich has identical demographics to a lot of places where UKIP performed incredibly strongly in May, and this time they won't have to contend with Ivan Henderson on the ballot paper. That might seem fair but in advance of the May elections your analysis of the Tendring area was consistent throughout in that UKIP didn't merit a single mention for any ward. I therefore find it difficult to give great credit to your present nous that UKIP should suddenly now be expected to be winning seats in Harwich. However, I do acknowledge you have put your head over the parapet on elections in Essex and thank you for that. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 23, 2013 9:57:03 GMT
I don't think that's the case. I expect Labour to win, because I expect Harwich UKIP to have no campaigning chops. But Harwich has identical demographics to a lot of places where UKIP performed incredibly strongly in May, and this time they won't have to contend with Ivan Henderson on the ballot paper. That might seem fair but in advance of the May elections your analysis of the Tendring area was consistent throughout in that UKIP didn't merit a single mention for any ward. I therefore find it difficult to give great credit to your present nous that UKIP should suddenly now be expected to be winning seats in Harwich. However, I do acknowledge you have put your head over the parapet on elections in Essex and thank you for that. I can't speak for Rural East, but I spent most of the month after the election in the other division they won in Tendring (Brightlingsea) and couldn't find any trace of a UKIP campaign, even in the pubs. That leads me to believe that they won largely because nobody else bar the Lib Dems really did any work in the division, and the Lib Dem vote was overwhelmingly concentrated in one village that was too small to be decisive. That suggests that the base UKIP vote in Tendring is high enough to win if nobody at all campaigns. Granted, Brightlingsea division's demographics are somewhat different from Harwich's, but my instinct is that UKIP's support will have been highest in the ward that's most like Harwich - because the Lib Dems won Alresford by a mile and the Tory candidate is a district councillor in Great Bentley. If this is the case - and whilst I haven't proved it beyond reasonable doubt, I think it's as good a conjecture as any - then a failure of UKIP to win would be best explained either by a drop in national polling numbers - which by-election results aren't really picking up yet - or by another party campaigning better than UKIP. Harwich Labour have known about the by-elections for a couple of months, are reasonably active and will call in support from elsewhere if they think they need it. I therefore think they can hold on, unless UKIP know where their support lives and are able to get them out. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 25, 2013 21:57:19 GMT
Elmbridge - Weybridge South - Conservative Hold
Con 274 (48.6%)
LD 150 (26.6%)
UKIP 140 (24.8%)
Uttlesford - Felsted - Conservative Hold
figures tbc
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,773
Member is Online
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Post by andrea on Jul 25, 2013 22:02:09 GMT
Braintee East
Labour 461
Conservative 267
UKIP 194
Green 67
turnout 18.96%
Con hold Felsted
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 25, 2013 22:04:47 GMT
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Post by nigelashton on Jul 25, 2013 22:08:41 GMT
From Twitter
1 LibDem gains from Lab Maghull TC Merseyside tonight
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Post by nigelashton on Jul 25, 2013 22:09:35 GMT
From Twitter 1 LibDem gains from Lab Maghull TC Merseyside tonight And now, also from Twitter A second Lib Dem gain from Lab Maghull TC Mersyside |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 25, 2013 22:14:58 GMT
Derek Mead (Independent) wins North Worle wins Worle East town council seat.
The district council seat is still to declare.
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 25, 2013 22:24:47 GMT
Labour hold Tulse Hill
Labour 1575, LD 277, Gre 177, TUSC 76, Con 74, UKIP 64, Ind 20, Soc 11
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 25, 2013 22:29:14 GMT
Derek Mead (Independent) wins North Worle wins Worle East town council seat. The district council seat is still to declare. He's just won that one as well. |
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Post by marksenior on Jul 25, 2013 22:31:44 GMT
Uttlesford result Con 557 LD 253 UKIP 181 Lab 38
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Post by danlew on Jul 25, 2013 22:59:28 GMT
Maghull North Ward and Maghull East ward combine to make the exact ward boundaries of Sudell ward on Sefton MBC. The combined popular vote across Sudell had Lib Dems 106 ahead of Labour. We also came 9 votes behind in Maghull South.
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 25, 2013 23:04:40 GMT
North Somerset result from the council twitter
Mead 531
C 471
Lab 445
LD 321
UKIP 220
Ling 93
That's a win with about 25.5% of the vote
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 25, 2013 23:07:56 GMT
Conservatives gain Beverley ward, Kingston.
Result:
C 1,033
L Dem 760
Lab 717
UKIP 223
GP 207
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 25, 2013 23:10:11 GMT
Thrapston has been reported as a Tory hold but no other details at present.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 25, 2013 23:15:32 GMT
Conservatives gain Beverley ward, Kingston. Result: C 1,033 L Dem 760 Lab 717 UKIP 223 GP 207 Thats a terrible result for the LDs. Very good for Labour (and good for the Tories of course). These Kingston by-elections have become unpredictable with the LDs holding up well in traditionally strong Tory areas like Berrylands and Surbiton HIll but suffering bad adverse swings in their own strongholds such as here and in Grove which they almost lost a while back |
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Post by marksenior on Jul 25, 2013 23:20:34 GMT
Conservatives gain Beverley ward, Kingston. Result: C 1,033 L Dem 760 Lab 717 UKIP 223 GP 207 Thats a terrible result for the LDs. Very good for Labour (and good for the Tories of course). These Kingston by-elections have become unpredictable with the LDs holding up well in traditionally strong Tory areas like Berrylands and Surbiton HIll but suffering bad adverse swings in their own strongholds such as here and in Grove which they almost lost a while back True but you have to allow for the cause of this by election hence my forecast of a Con gain . |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 25, 2013 23:20:52 GMT
Conservatives gain Beverley ward, Kingston. Result: C 1,033 L Dem 760 Lab 717 UKIP 223 GP 207 Con 35.14% LD 25.85% Lab 24.39% UKIP 7.59% Green 7.04% |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,012
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 25, 2013 23:22:35 GMT
Conservatives gain Beverley ward, Kingston. Result: C 1,033 L Dem 760 Lab 717 UKIP 223 GP 207 Thats a terrible result for the LDs. Very good for Labour (and good for the Tories of course). These Kingston by-elections have become unpredictable with the LDs holding up well in traditionally strong Tory areas like Berrylands and Surbiton HIll but suffering bad adverse swings in their own strongholds such as here and in Grove which they almost lost a while back Ahem, I think the circumstances of the by-election made it virtually impossible for us to have anything but a terrible result (how betrayed must the local populus feel?). Though there might be a trend elsewhere, trying to read too much into this result would be a mugs game. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 25, 2013 23:25:53 GMT
Thats a terrible result for the LDs. Very good for Labour (and good for the Tories of course). These Kingston by-elections have become unpredictable with the LDs holding up well in traditionally strong Tory areas like Berrylands and Surbiton HIll but suffering bad adverse swings in their own strongholds such as here and in Grove which they almost lost a while back True but you have to allow for the cause of this by election hence my forecast of a Con gain . I'd forgottrn what the cause was but now remember all the kerfuffle from the time. I think I was minded to predict a Conservative gain when the by-election was first announced for this reason |
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