Prediction Competition for July 2013

[middleenglander]

It looks like 17 by-elections during the month
- 5 on the 4th July
- 3 on the 11th
- 2 on the 18th
- 7 on the 25th

6 of the contests are in District Councils where the previous elections were in 2011
3 are in District Councils with annual elections last held in 2012
2 are in Unitary Authorities last contested min 2012
1 is in a Metropolitan Borough last contested in 2012
2 are in London Boroughs where the last elections were in 2010
3 are in Wales last contested in 2012

The Conservatives are defending 7 seats, 6 arising from a resignation and 1 from disqualification for non-attendance
Labour are defending 6 seats, 4 following the death of the previous councillor and 2 a resignation
Lib Dems are defending 1 seat following a resignation
Independents are defending 2 seats and Greens 1 all following a resignation.

Amended now all the nominations are in:
The Conservatives are contesting all 17 seats, Labour 16 and the Lib Dems 10
UKIP are contesting 11 seats, Independents have 7 candidates contesting 6 seats, Greens 4, TUSAC 3 whilst there is 1 National Front, 1 Plaid Cymru, 1 Socialist and 1 No Description
- a total of 72 candidates.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on the day of the election.

[Robert Waller]

BROADLAND - Aylsham (Conservative resigned)

Malcolm KEMP (Labour Party Candidate) 20%
Judi MEREDITH (The Conservative Party Candidate) 42
Steve RILEY (Liberal Democrats) 38

NEWCASTLE-UNDER-LYME - Silverdale and Parksite (Labour resigned)

Elaine BLAKE (UK Independence Party) 48
Amelia ROUT (Labour Party Candidate) 43
Richard STEELE (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 3
James VERNON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 6

NORTH TYNESIDE - Riverside (Labour resigned)

Wendy LOTT (The Labour Party Candidate) 85
Barbara STEVENS (The Conservative Party Candidate) 15

SWANSEA - Llansamlet (Labour died)

Robert CLAY (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 71
James HATTON (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 13
Samuel REES (Welsh Liberal Democrats) 10
Claire THOMAS (National Front) 6

VALE OF WHITE HORSE - Abingdon Fitzharris (Conservative resigned)

Jeanette HALLIDAY (Liberal Democrat) 41
Monica LOVATT (The Conservative Party Candidate) 38
George RYALL (Labour Party Candidate) 21

[obscurityknocks]

BROADLAND - Aylsham
Lib Dem 40, Conservative 39, Labour 21

NEWCASTLE-UNDER-LYME - Silverdale and Parksite
Labour 46, UKIP 39, Conservative 11, TUSC 4

NORTH TYNESIDE - Riverside
Labour 81, Conservative 19

SWANSEA - Llansamlet
Labour 69, Conservative 16, Lib Dem 12, NF 3

VALE OF WHITE HORSE - Abingdon Fitzharris
Lib Dem 48, Conservative 37, Labour 15

[Deleted]

BROADLAND - Aylsham

Lib Dem 46, Conservative 38, Labour 16

NEWCASTLE-UNDER-LYME - Silverdale and Parksite

UKIP 48, Labour 37, Conservative 10, TUSC 5

NORTH TYNESIDE - Riverside

Labour 77, Conservative 23

SWANSEA - Llansamlet

Labour 66, Lib Dem 18, Conservative 13, NF 3

VALE OF WHITE HORSE - Abingdon Fitzharris

Lib Dem 43, Conservative 41, Labour 16

[marksenior]

Broadland LD 48 Con 36 Lab 16
Newcastle Lab 42 UKIP 40 Con 15 TUSC 3
N Tyneside Lab 83 Con 17
Swansea Lab 60 Con 22 LD 16 NF 2
Vale Of White Horse LD 45 Con 40 Lab 15

[Deleted]

Broadland LD 42 Con 40 Lab 18
Newcastle Lab 45 UKIP 42 Con 11 TUSC 2
N Tyneside Lab 86 Con 14
Swansea Lab 80 Con 12 LD 7 NF 1
Vale Of White Horse Con 38 LD 36 Lab 26

[hempie]

Broadland, Aylsham: Con 42, LD 39,Lab 19
Newcastle under Lyme, Silverdale & Parksite: UKIP 44, Lab 42,Con 12, TUSC 2
North Tyneside,Riverside: Lab 83, Con 17
Swansea, LLansamlet: Lab 70, Con 14,LD 12, NF 4
Vale Of White Horse, Abingdon Fitzharris: LD 43.5, Con 40.5, Lab 16

[greatkingrat]

BROADLAND - Con 42, LD 38, Lab 20
NEWCASTLE UNDER LYME - UKIP 45, Lab 42, Con 10, TUSC 3
NORTH TYNESIDE - Lab 86, Con 14
SWANSEA - Lab 72, Con 13, LD 13, NF 2
VALE OF WHITE HORSE - Con 40, LD 39, Lab 21

[Philip Davies]

Jul 3, 2013 23:13:37 GMT Philip Davies said:

I double checked I filled all the numbers in this time!

BROADLAND - Aylsham

Malcolm KEMP (Labour Party Candidate) 19.7
Judi MEREDITH (The Conservative Party Candidate) 37.3
Steve RILEY (Liberal Democrats) 43.0


NEWCASTLE-UNDER-LYME - Silverdale and Parksite

Elaine BLAKE (UK Independence Party) 48.7
Amelia ROUT (Labour Party Candidate) 42.4
Richard STEELE (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 2.0
James VERNON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 6.9


NORTH TYNESIDE - Riverside

Wendy LOTT (The Labour Party Candidate) 83.3
Barbara STEVENS (The Conservative Party Candidate) 16.7


SWANSEA - Llansamlet

Robert CLAY (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 68.8
James HATTON (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 11.6
Samuel REES (Welsh Liberal Democrats) 17.6
Claire THOMAS (National Front) 2.0


VALE OF WHITE HORSE - Abingdon Fitzharris

Jeanette HALLIDAY (Liberal Democrat) 47.3
Monica LOVATT (The Conservative Party Candidate) 41.0
George RYALL (Labour Party Candidate) 11.7

[Tony Otim]

Nice to see a couple of new competitors, even if I'm sitting out this month (away for next three weeks).

FWIW, I think my predictions this week wold have been pretty similar to Phil's, although I might have gone a bit closer in Newcastle Under Lyme.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 3, 2013 8:30:05 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

North Tyneside MB - Riverside

Lab 83.8%
Con 16.2%


Broadland DC - Aylsham

LD   43.1%
Con 39.3%
Lab 17.6%


Newcastle under Lyme BC - Silverdale & Parksite

UKIP 45.1%
Lab   42.1%
Con    9.1%
TUSC  3.7%


Vale of White Horse DC - Abingdon Fitzharris

LD   47.3%
Con 37.8%
Lab 14.9%


Swansea CC - Llansamlet

Lab 70.4%
Con 17.8%
LD    8.9%
NF    2.9%

[lancastrian]

Very late. Network trouble. I'll go back to posting first next week.

Broadband, Aylsham LD 45 Con 36 Lab 19
Newcastle-under-Lyme, Silverdale & Parksite Lab 46 UKIP 43 Con 9 TUSC 2
North Tyneside, Riverside Lab 75 Con 25
Swansea, Llansamlet Lab 72 Con 15 LD 12 NF 1
Vale of White Horse, Abingdon Fitzharris LD 49 Con 38 Lab 13

[Deleted]

Just come back from a few days away, lass not impressed that I rushed onto pooter


Broadband, Aylsham Lab 40 CON 31 LD 29
Newcastle-under-Lyme, Silverdale & Parksite UKIP 43 LAB 42 Con 9 TUSC 6
North Tyneside, Riverside Lab 82 Con 18/
Swansea, Llansamlet Lab 75 Con 12 NF 7 LD 6
Vale of White Horse, Abingdon Fitzharris con 39 ld 38 Lab 23

[andrewteale]

Jul 3, 2013 23:25:03 GMT andrewteale said:

Hello middleenglander,

I'm back this month and here are my predictions for this week.

ABINGDON FITZHARRIS: LD 40 C 38 Lab 22
AYLSHAM: C 40 LD 39 Lab 21
LLANSAMLET: Lab 76 C 13 LD 6 NF 5
RIVERSIDE: Lab 82 C 18
SILVERDALE AND PARKSITE: UKIP 44 Lab 37 C 13 TUSC 6

[middleenglander]

12 entries this week with

[middleenglander]

12 entries this week with jamesdoyle and obscurityknocks joining for the first time.
Lancastrian gets 100 additional faults for a late entry (5 seats by 5 faults by up to 4 hours for posting between noon and 1 pm) whilst Just Looking gets 150 additional faults (as postings after 1 pm get 10 faults per seat for each hour or part of after 1 pm).

Broadland: 7 Lib Dem gain from Conservatives, Andrew Teale, hempie, greatkingrat & Robert Waller Conservative hold, Just Looking Labour gain
Newcastle-under-Lyme: 9 UKIP gain from Labour, jamesdoyle, Lancastrian, Mark Senior obscurityknocks Labour hold
Newcastle-upon-Tyne: 100% Labour hold
Swansea: 100% Labour hold
Vale of White Horse: 9 Lib Dem gain from Conservative, greatkingrat, jamesdoyle & Just Looking Conservative hold

[Tony Otim]

Looks like Mark's taken an early lead with the Broadland result.

[Tony Otim]

I think at the moment lancastrian must be cursing those network problems, because I think he'd be doing very well without the late faults.

[Pete Whitehead]

Yes he would be well ahead if he had been on time. As it is I think Obscurityknocks has a lead which cannot be overturned by the result from North Tyneside

[Robert Waller]

Roughly:
Obscurityknocks - luminous first effort
Pete W
Mark
Phil
then close between James Doyle, Catholic Left and Hempie

But best predictions by Lancastrian