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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 11, 2013 23:14:13 GMT
Brighton: Greatkingrat 8.5, James Doyle 20.3, Catholic Left and Hempie 23.1, Lancastrian 23.7, Phildav 24.2, Robert Waller 24.7, Mark Senior and Obscurityknocks 25.1, Pete Whitehead 26.1, Andrew Teale 27.4 (all include wrong winner faults except gkr)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 12, 2013 7:44:24 GMT
Caerhun: Andrew Teale 8.8, Lancastrian & Mark Senior 13.4, Obscurityknocks 15.4, Catolicleft 16.8, greatkingrat and Robert Waller 21.4, James Doyle 22.8, Hempie 26.8, Phildav76 28.6, Pete Whitehead 31.6 +10
Lancastrian narrowly leading Mark Senior for the week and would be ahead for the month but for his late entry last week. As is Mark Senior remains narrowly ahead of Obscurity knocks for the month with other contenders some way behind. All will depend on who wins Exning.
I'm likely to be away from a a computer for most of the rest of today so perhaps a DDRO could
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 12, 2013 7:49:06 GMT
It will help said DDRO to know the situation in lieu of the Exning result
Weekly
Lancastrian 63.4
Mark Senior 64.9
catholic Left 73.8
Obscurity 78.4
Robert Waller 84.5
A Teale 87.9
gkr 97.7
James Doyle 103.8
Hempie 125.8
PW 125.9
phildav 144.6
For the month
Mark Senior 148.5
Obscurity 152.3
catholic Left 182.3
Robert Waller 186.8
James Doyle 193.1
A Teale 198.2
PW 203.0
gkr 213.7
Hempie 225.3
phildav 228.7
Lancastrian 234.5
Justlooking 593.5
I think I may achieve the extremely rare, perhaps even *very unique* feat of predciting a full slate of wrong winners this week
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 12, 2013 8:56:29 GMT
I'm fairly sure that going by past precedent, Middle Englander will not count the Exning election anyway, as it was only posted a couple of days beforehand.
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 12, 2013 21:54:25 GMT
I'm fairly sure that going by past precedent, Middle Englander will not count the Exning election anyway, as it was only posted a couple of days beforehand. greatkingrat is quite right, the rule is the by-election has to be known about at least 13 days before the contest, in the case of this week's contests by Friday June 28th. The Forest Heath, Exning election was not known about until earlier this week so does not form part of the prediction competition. In any case last Friday I posted there were 3 contests this week so again indicating Forest Heath was not included. I cannot let CatholicLeft's error go unnoticed so he gets 10 additional faults for a late posting in North Kesteven, Sleaford Holdingham. It does appear that the Labour vote in North Kesteven was 29 and not the 79 reported last night and used by the Deputy Returning Officer. Therefore there are amend figures here. I agree with all the DRO's figures for Brighton & Hove, but in Conwy I make ObscurityKnock's faults 24.8 not 15.8 whilst agreeing the rest. So the full result is: Brighton & Hove, Hanover & Elmgrove greatkingrat 8.5 faults, JamesDoyle 10.3+10, CatholicLeft & hempie 13.1+10, Lancastrian 13.7+10, Phildav 14.2+10, Robert Waller 14.7+10, Mark Senior & ObscurityKnocks 15.1+10, Pete Whitehead 16.1+10, Andrew Teale 17.4+10 Conwy, Caerhun Andrew Teale 8.8 faults, Lancastrian & Mark Senior 13.4, Catholic Left 16.8, greatkingrat & Robert Waller 21.4, JamesDoyle 22.8, ObscurityKnocks 24.8, hempie 26.8, PhilDav 28.6, Pete Whitehead 31.6+10 North Kesteven, Sleaford Holdingham Lancastrian 30.4, Mark Senior 40.4, Robert Waller 48.4, Obscurity Knocks 54.4, Andrew Teale 47.0+10, CatholicLeft 50.4+10, JamesDoyle 51.0+10, greatkingrat 59.0+10, Pete Whitehead 60.0+10, hempie 82.4+10, PhilDav 98.4+10 - I did consider limiting PhilDav to 100 but have let the 108.4 stand. So for the week we have: Lancastrian 67.4 faults, Mark Senior 78.8, Andrew Teale 93.1, Robert Waller 94.5, greatkingrat 98.9, CatholicLeft 100.2, JamesDoyle 104.0, ObscurityKnocks 104.2, Pete Whiteheade 137.6, hempie 142.2, PhilDav 161.1 and after 2 weeks: 162.6 Mark Senior 178.1 ObscurityKnocks 193.3 JamesDoyle 196.8 Robert Waller 203.4 Andrew Teale 208.8 CatholicLeft 214.7 Pete Whitehead 214.9 greatkingrat 238.4 Lancastrian - would have been 138.4 and in the lead if had posted on time last week. 241.8 hempie 245.2 PhilDav 593.5 Just Looking Objections please by 10.00 am Sunday. Two contests next week. Predictions by 9.00 am Thursday. |
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Post by lancastrian on Jul 17, 2013 20:45:39 GMT
Flintshire, Connah's Quay Golftyn: Ind 45 Lab 42 Con 13
South Cambridgeshire, Sawston: Con 37 Lab 24 UKIP 21 LD 18
To be honest, I fully expect to come last with these. I'm not sure I've guessed the result of the indy's leaflets correctly.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2013 21:32:19 GMT
Flintshire, Connah's Quay Golftyn:
Labour: 58%
Independent: 31%
Conservative: 11%
South Cambridgeshire, Sawston:
Conservative:51%
Labour:23%
UKIP: 16%
Liberal Democrat:10%
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 17, 2013 23:36:40 GMT
Flintshire, Connah's Quay Golftyn: Ind 44 Lab 48 Con 8
South Cambridgeshire, Sawston: Con 45 Lab 25 UKIP 25 LD 5
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Post by obscurityknocks on Jul 17, 2013 23:52:13 GMT
Flintshire, Connah's Quay Golftyn:
Labour 51%, IND 35%, Conservative 14%
South Cambridgeshire, Sawston:
Conservative 41%, Labour 32%, UKIP 23%, Lib Dem 4%
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Post by marksenior on Jul 18, 2013 5:46:16 GMT
Flintshire Lab 49 Ind 42 Con 9
S Cambs Con 42 UKIP 28 Lab 18 LD 12
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 18, 2013 6:13:51 GMT
FLINTSHIRE - Lab 52, Ind 36, Con 12
SOUTH CAMBRIDGESHIRE - Con 47, UKIP 23, Lab 22, LD 8
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2013 6:40:13 GMT
Flintshire (Connah's Quay): Con 11, Lab 51, Ind 38
South Cambs (Sawston): Con 40, Lab 24, LD 8, UKIP 28
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Post by hempie on Jul 18, 2013 6:50:34 GMT
Flintshire, Connah's Quay Golftyn: Lab 53, Ind 42,Con 5
South Cambridgeshire, Sawston: Con 49, UKIP 23, Lab 22, LD 6
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Post by andrewteale on Jul 18, 2013 7:41:04 GMT
CONNAH'S QUAY GOLFTYN: Lab 59 Ind 36 C 5
SAWSTON: C 40 Lab 31 UKIP 24 LD 5
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 18, 2013 9:08:21 GMT
South Cambs - Sawston Con 39.2% Lab 27.0% UKIP 21.1% LD 12.7% Flintshire - Connahs Quay Lab 46.2% Ind 44.9% Con 8.9% |
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 18, 2013 20:48:42 GMT
11 entries this week - the same as last week.
Flintshire, Connahs Quay Golftyn: 10 Labour holds with Lancastrian opting for an Independent gain.
South Cambridgeshire, Sawton: 100% Conservative gain from Independent who are not contesting the seat.
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 18, 2013 22:46:58 GMT
Both results in early.
By my very rough calculations, Mark Senior increases his lead for the month, James Doyle may have closed on the second place of Obscurityknocks, Greatkingrat moves up a few places to about fifth.
Hempie will be hard to beat for the week.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 18, 2013 22:53:57 GMT
Are they really the results? I wasn;t sure they weren't a late prediction on the wrong thread. Its unusual for one person to post both results simultaneously and the implied turnout is rather low (about 18% in both cases)
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 18, 2013 22:57:11 GMT
Oh, I hadn't thought of that - as no one had made such a comment on the byelection thread.
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 18, 2013 23:01:42 GMT
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