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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 5, 2013 7:57:12 GMT
Congratulations to Obscurityknocks and also to Andrew for an almost spot on prediction in Swansea (we have had lower faults than this recorded but not often in a four cornered contest I think)
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 5, 2013 8:25:09 GMT
Congratulations to obscurityknocks for a good debut effort and also to lancastrian for his predictions (if not his timing).
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 5, 2013 15:32:34 GMT
Broadland Aylesham - amended for Labour vote of 181 not 188 as reported last night.
Mark Senior 5.6 faults, Catholic Left 8.4, Pete Whitehead 14.2, PhilDav 14.4, jamesdoyle 16.4, obscurityknocks 20.4, Lancastrian 11.6+20., Andrew Teale & hempie 22.4+10, greatkingrat & Robert Waller 24.4+10, Just Looking 53.6+10+30
Newcastle-under-Lyme, Silverdale & Parksite - amended for Labour vote 387 not 386 as reported last night
obscurityknocks 16.6 faults, jamesdoyle 18.6, Mark Senior 24.6, Pete Whitehead 24.4+10, greatkingrat & hempie 24.6+10, PhilDav 26.2+10, Lancastrian 16.6+20, Robert Waller 26.8+10, Andrew Teale & Catholicleft 34.6+10, Just Looking 24.6+10+30
Swansea, Llanamlet
Andrew Teale 2.2 faults, Robert Waller 7.9, jamesdoyle 11.7, greatkingrat & hempie 13.8, Pete Whitehead 15.2, obscurityknocks 17.8, PhilDav 22.8, Catholicleft 23.8, Just Looking 2.2+30, Lancastrian 15.8+20, Mark Senior 37.8
Vale of White Horse, Fitzharris
PhilDav 5.9 faults, Pete Whitehead 9.7, obscurityknocks 9.9, Mark Senior 10.5, hempie 13.5, Catholicleft 14.5, Robert Waller 21.9, AndrewTeale 23.9, Lancastrian 5.9+20, greatkingrat 22.5+10, jamesdoyle 31.9+10, Just Looking 25.9+10+30
and with North Tyneside, Riverside to come: - amended as above
Obscurityknocks 64.6 faults, Pete Whitehead 73.4, Mark Senior 78.4, Phildav 79.4, jamesdoyle 88.5, Catholicleft 91.3, hempie 94.3, Robert Waller 101.0, Andrew Teale 103.1, greatkingrat 115.3, Lancastrian 129.7 including 80 late faults, Just Looking 256.2 including 120 late faults.
North Tyneside, Riverside
greatkingrat & jamesdoyle 0.7 faults, Robert Waller 1.3, Pete Whitehead 3.7, PhilDav 4.7, hempie & Mark Senior 5.3, Andrew Teale 7.3, obscurityknocks 9.3, Catholicleft 17.3, Just Looking 7.3+30, Lancastrian 21.3+20
and for the first week of July
73.9 obscurityknocks
77.1 Pete Whitehead
83.7 Mark Senior
84.1 PhilDav
89.3 jamesdoyle
99.5 hempie
102.3 Robert Waller
108.5 Catholicleft
110.3 AndrewTeale
116.0 greatkingrat
171.0 Lancastrian (includes 100 late faults)
293.5 Just Looking (includes 150 late faults)
Objections please by 10.00 am Sunday
3 contests next week, predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.
We shall be away for a couple of days. If the DRO could please take over and I will verify the results Friday evening.
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Post by obscurityknocks on Jul 6, 2013 11:48:07 GMT
I think it was just be a case of beginners luck. Next week, I'm sure, will show me to be the prediction fraud I really am.
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Post by lancastrian on Jul 9, 2013 14:42:01 GMT
Not going to be late this week, though the independents might rack up 100 points anyway.
Brighton & Hove, Hanover and Elm Grove: Green 41 Lab 37 Con 9 UKIP 6 LD 5 TUSC 2
Conwy, Caerhun: Ind 42 Con 29 PC 16 Lab 13
Forest Heath, Exning: Ind 52 Con 48
North Kesteven, Sleaford Holdingham: Jackson 31 Con 22 UKIP 17 Lab 15 Fernandes 15
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 10, 2013 11:37:36 GMT
Getting my predictions in early as I have a visitor for the next couple of days.
Brighton and Hove, Hanover and Elmgrove:
Greens:43%
Labour:36%
UKIP:8%
Conservative:6%
TUSC:4%
Liberal Democrat:3%
Conwy, Caerhun:
Independent:36%
Conservative:30%
Plaid Cymru:19%
Labour:15%
Forest Heath, Exning:
Cole: 55%
Conservative: 45%
North Kesteven, Sleaford Holdingham:
Labour:24%
Conservative:22%
UKIP:18%
Edwards:27%
Independent:9%
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Post by lancastrian on Jul 10, 2013 13:19:45 GMT
There's an Edwards in Conwy, but not Sleaford.
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Post by obscurityknocks on Jul 10, 2013 18:50:13 GMT
I have a strong feeling this week will see my crown slip somewhat. I am so unsure about a few of these predicitions as I have no knowledge of at least two of the councils. I have become very unstuck with the Welsh one...
Brighton and Hove, Hanover and Elmgrove:
Greens 40%, Labour 36%, UKIP 10%, Conservative 7%, Lib Dem 5%, TUSC 2%
Conwy, Caerhun
IND 37%, Conservative 30%, Labour 19%, PC 14%
Forest Heath, Exning
Conservative 53%, IND 47%
North Kesteven, Sleaford Holdingham
IND Jackson 28%, Conservative 25%, Labour 23%, UKIP 18%, IND Fernandes 6%
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 10, 2013 20:07:20 GMT
Brighton & Hove (Hanover & Elm Grove): Green 43%, Lab 39%, UKIP 8%, Con 5%, TUSC 4%, LibDem 1%
Conwy (Caerhun): Ind 39%, Con 30%, Lab 18%, PC 13%
North Kesteven (Sleaford Holdingham): UKIP 30%, Con 21%, Jackson 18%, Fernandes 18%, Lab 13%
Forest Heath (Exning): Ind 61%, Con 39%
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 10, 2013 21:17:36 GMT
Brighton & Hove, Hanover and Elm Grove: Green 44.5 Lab 40 Con 5 UKIP 6 LD 3 TUSC 1.5
Conwy, Caerhun: Ind 41 Con 33 PC 16 Lab 10
Forest Heath, Exning: Ind 49 Con 51
North Kesteven, Sleaford Holdingham: Jackson 27 Con 22 UKIP 23 Lab 18 Fernandes 10
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 10, 2013 23:42:53 GMT
BRIGHTON - Lab 39.5, Grn 38.5, UKIP 10, Con 7, LD 3, TUSC 2
CONWY - Ind 35, Con 33, PC 18, Lab 14
NORTH KESTEVEN - Fernandes 28, UKIP 22, Con 20, Lab 16, Jackson 14
FOREST HEATH - Con 65, Ind 35
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Post by hempie on Jul 11, 2013 6:51:02 GMT
Brighton, Hanover & Elmgrove: Green 41, Lab 37, UKIP 8, Con 5, LD 5, TUSC 4
Conwy, Caerhun: Ind 31, Con 30, Lab 20, PC 19
Forest Heath, Exning: Con 60, Ind 40
North Kesteven, Sleaford Holdingham: UKIP 29, Con 26, Lab 25, Jackson 13, Fernandes 7
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Post by marksenior on Jul 11, 2013 7:36:35 GMT
Brighton/Hove Green 44 Lab 36 UKIP 8 Con 7 LD 3 TUSC 2
Conwy Ind 40 Con 29 Plaid 17 Lab 14
Forest Heath Ind 54 Con 46
N Kesteven Ind J 29 Con 21 Lab 20 UKIP 18 Ind F 12
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Post by Philip Davies on Jul 11, 2013 8:09:51 GMT
BRIGHTON AND HOVE - Hanover and Elmgrove Phil CLARKE (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 1.5 Emma DANIEL (Labour and Co-operative Party Candidate) 38.5 Lev EAKINS (Liberal Democrats) 2.5 David GIBSON (Green Party) 44.9 Robert KNIGHT (Conservative Party Candidate) 7.6 Patricia MOUNTAIN (UKIP) 5.0 CONWY - Caerhun Neil BRADSHAW (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate / Ymgeisydd Plaid Geidwadol Cymru) 31.6 Goronwy EDWARDS (Annibynnol / Independent) 36.7 Pered MORRIS (Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales) 12.4 Sian PEAKE-JONES (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 19.3 FOREST HEATH - Exning Simon Cole (Independent) 60.5 Marion Fairman-Smith (Conservative) 39.5 NORTH KESTEVEN - Sleaford Holdingham Mike BENTHALL (Labour Party Candidate) 42 John DILKS (UK Independence Party) 25 Ken FERNANDES (Independent) 7 Lucille HAGUES (Conservative & Unionist Party) 21 Grenville JACKSON 5 |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2013 9:36:23 GMT
Bugger it - Sleaford should read Jackson, not Edwards. I appeal for clemency!!!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 11, 2013 11:20:51 GMT
Brighton & Hove - Hanover & Elm Grove Grn 42.3% Lab 37.1% Con 8.5% LD 5.4% UKIP 3.6% TUSC 3.1% Forest Heath - Exning Ind 52.1% Con 47.9% North Kesteven - Sleaford Holdingham UKIP 23.7% Lab 23.3% Con 20.3% Ind 19.2% ND 13.5% Conwy - Caerhun Con 32.5% Ind 31.7% Lab 19.9% PC 15.9% |
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Post by andrewteale on Jul 11, 2013 17:42:32 GMT
Hello middle englander, Here are my predictions for this week. CAERHUN: Edwards 40 C 24 PC 19 Lab 17 EXNING: Ind 57 C 43 HANOVER AND ELM GROVE: Grn 45 Lab 35 UKIP 7 C 6 LD 4 TUSC 3 SLEAFORD HOLDINGHAM: Fenandes 26 Jackson 20 C 19 Lab 18 UKIP 17 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 11, 2013 20:37:00 GMT
11 entries this week with Just Looking just looking this week.
Brighton has 10 Green holds all in the range of 4% to 10% lead with greatkingrat predicting a narrow Labour gain
Forest Heath has 7 Independent gains mahority ranging from 4% to 12% with greatkingrat, Hempie, Obscurityknocks and Rpbert Waller predicting a Conservative gain
IN North Kesteven there are four predicted winners (with only the Conservatives being fancied by no-one). Catholic Left, Lancastrian, Mark Senior, Obscurityknocks and Robert Waller favour Jackson (no description). Hempie, James Doyle and Pete Whitehead predict a UKIP gain. Andrew Teale and greatkingrat predcit an Independent (Fernandes) hold and Phildav76 predicts a Labour gain
In Conwy there is almost unanimity for an Independent gain with only Pete Whitehead predicting a Conservative hold.
No additional faults AFAICT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 11, 2013 22:37:53 GMT
North Kesteven: Lancastrian and MArk Senior 26.4, Catolic Left 33.9, Obscurityknocks 37.9, Robert Waller 38.4, Andrew Teale 41.7 +10, Pete Whitehead 48.3 +10, James Doyle 50.7 +10, greatkingrat 57.7 +10, Hempie 65.9 +10, Phildav 81.9 +10
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Post by Robert Waller on Jul 11, 2013 22:50:51 GMT
Think that's Mark into the lead for the month, after the first result
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