YL
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Post by YL on May 3, 2022 16:58:08 GMT
If "other" became the second largest (or largest) designation, I thinks matters change. Yes, relying on wikipedia (dubious, I know, but until someone corrects me...) the respective nominations for FM and DFM go respectively to the largest party (measured by MLAs) of the largest designation and the largest party of the second largest designation. So to get into contention Alliance would need to win more MLAs than either SF + SDLP or DUP + UUP + TUV. (I'm presuming that e.g. UUP or SDLP would not re-designate as "other", though if both of them did simultaneously I would probably die laughing at the reaction of both DUP and SF). There's then a later bit which says that if the largest party isn't of the largest designation then the largest party get FM, and the largest party of the largest designation get DFM. This is why Sinn Féin are seen as likely to get FM, because they do if they're the largest party even if Unionists are still the largest designation. See section 16A and section 16C of the Northern Ireland Act 1998 as amended. The case where the largest party isn't of the largest designation is 16C(6). I don't know why it's written like this; presumably it's something to do with the amendments after the St Andrews Agreement changing the rules. Greens and PBP are "Other", yes. I assume Aontú would be Nationalist in the unlikely event of them getting anyone elected. |
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obsie
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Post by obsie on May 3, 2022 19:33:49 GMT
Alliance second preferences in the poll tend quite strongly towards nationalism over unionism: SDLP 33.1, Green 22.7, UUP 15.1, SF 15.1, DUP 6.2, PBP 4.8, TUV 1.3, Aontú 1.2 UUP transfers are predominantly unionist but even there there's a sizeable ADUP vote: DUP 32.6, TUV 27.1, All 23.9, SDLP 5.4, Green 3.6, Aontú 1.2 DUP transfers on the other hand strongly favour their main rivals over the TUV: UUP 62.8, TUV 24.3, SDLP 4.4, All 4.4, Green 3.2 TUV transfers tend to go back to their parent party: DUP 54.0, UUP 18.9, Green(!) 18.9, PBP(!!!) 2.7To complete the set: SF - SDLP 52.2, All 17.4, Green 9.4, Aontú 7.4, PBP 7.4, TUV(!) 0.4 SDLP - All 37.8, SF 24.3, Green 14.6, UUP 9.7, Aontú 7.3, PBP 4.8 Green - All 50.0, SF 30.0, PBP 10.0, DUP 5.0 PBP - SF 53.3, Green 20.0, SDLP 6.6, All 6.6, Aontú 6.6Well, it doesn't take a genius, just a professional data analyst, to point out that the TUV sample size is likely to be just 37 and 2.7% represents 1 person, and that 18.9% represents 7 people. Similarly, the sample size for PBP is likely to be just 15 people. Oh, I know but a whole seven TUV -> Green voters is a bit of a stretch. |
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obsie
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Post by obsie on May 3, 2022 19:42:29 GMT
Yes, relying on wikipedia (dubious, I know, but until someone corrects me...) the respective nominations for FM and DFM go respectively to the largest party (measured by MLAs) of the largest designation and the largest party of the second largest designation. So to get into contention Alliance would need to win more MLAs than either SF + SDLP or DUP + UUP + TUV. (I'm presuming that e.g. UUP or SDLP would not re-designate as "other", though if both of them did simultaneously I would probably die laughing at the reaction of both DUP and SF). There's then a later bit which says that if the largest party isn't of the largest designation then the largest party get FM, and the largest party of the largest designation get DFM. This is why Sinn Féin are seen as likely to get FM, because they do if they're the largest party even if Unionists are still the largest designation. See section 16A and section 16C of the Northern Ireland Act 1998 as amended. The case where the largest party isn't of the largest designation is 16C(6). I don't know why it's written like this; presumably it's something to do with the amendments after the St Andrews Agreement changing the rules. Greens and PBP are "Other", yes. I assume Aontú would be Nationalist in the unlikely event of them getting anyone elected. PBP/SWP are "other" but officially pro-UI whereas the other two are uncommitted. |
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Post by Cú Chulainn on May 3, 2022 23:00:27 GMT
Latest NI leader's debate
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Post by andrew111 on May 4, 2022 9:45:22 GMT
Latest NI leader's debate That is a real hammering for Donaldson compared to everyone else including Beattie |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on May 4, 2022 12:03:11 GMT
Latest NI leader's debate That is a real hammering for Donaldson compared to everyone else including Beattie It is but, again, we need to take into account that it was conducted by a politically engaged panel What effect it has on those less engaged but going to vote is what will be interesting. |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 29, 2023 22:29:35 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 15, 2023 7:57:11 GMT
Basically 60/40 split for union over unification.
Other polls in the thread especially nuanced views about restarting the Assembly.
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Post by rcronald on Nov 15, 2023 8:09:29 GMT
Basically 60/40 split for union over unification. Other polls in the thread especially nuanced views about restarting the Assembly. I wonder if the 6% of TUV voters who support a United Ireland simply support a United Ireland under British rule. 😬 |
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relique
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Post by relique on Nov 15, 2023 12:40:28 GMT
Basically 60/40 split for union over unification. Other polls in the thread especially nuanced views about restarting the Assembly. So basically, any united-ireland promoter only needs to convince the 10% of people voting SF but also not to be a united Ireland and the few % of people voting SDLP but not to be a united Ireland . Doesn't seem difficult. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 15, 2023 13:22:20 GMT
Basically 60/40 split for union over unification. Other polls in the thread especially nuanced views about restarting the Assembly. So basically, any united-ireland promoter only needs to convince the 10% of people voting SF but also not to be a united Ireland and the few % of people voting SDLP but not to be a united Ireland . Doesn't seem difficult. This remark expresses a view that many hold which shows, and I do not intend this to be taken in an offensive way, a deep misunderstandiing of the politics of Northern Ireland.Many people vote tribally, or in opposition to another party. If you are a Catholic, you may be strongly opposed to the views of a DUP/TUV candidate and, whilst not being pro-UI, wish to ensure that such a person loses. This is true vice-versa, of course. The SDLP vote was always an anti-violence, pro-civil rights'vote as much as a Nationalist one, and also had the support of many on the left at the time it was at its peak. The SF vote is more solidly pro-UI, but a significant number will vote to stop another candidate rather than in favour of the party's raison d'etre. Trying to change minds on a United Ireland will be more difficult than you imagine, even among Catholic voters. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Nov 15, 2023 17:15:35 GMT
Regarding the recent poll having Sinn Fein on 31% (+8.2) DUP on 25% (-5.6) APNI on 15% (-1.8) SDLP on 9% (-5.9) and UUP on 11% (-.7), any thoughts on how this would translate in seat terms?
I would anticipate unlike what electionmapsUK has predicted that the DUP would hold on to Upper Bann through tactical voting and based on the 2022 Assembly election.
Off the back of the 2022 Assembly election, Foyle would be a gain for Sinn Féin from the SDLP. Should Sinn Féin choose to stand in Belfast South (whose boundary expands into Unionist Mid Down) then the seat could emerge as a target for the Alliance Party. Belfast East very marginal between DUP and Alliance.
That takes the seat tally to
SF 8 (+1)
DUP 8 (=)
APNI 1 (=)
SDLP 1 (-1)
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Nov 15, 2023 17:25:13 GMT
A lot of variables at play though.
TUV+DUP vote is 32% (up 1.4% on 2019 as TUV didn't stand). Unionist vote on 42% (-1), Nationalist vote on 38% (-1).
Tactical considerations are very important in NI.
Belfast North is very divided between Nationalists and Unionists, so electoral pacts between parties will be pivotal there. Unionist turnout here has been poor in recent elections, so that may assist Sinn Fein in holding the seat as the DUP are in a mess at the moment.
Belfast East is a target seat for the Alliance Party. If the UUP or TUV stand there and split the Unionist vote, it may be curtains for Gavin Robinson.
Belfast South is another Alliance target, which they could feasibly win if there is no pact between Nationalist parties or a breakdown of the moderate SDLP vote towards Alliance.
South Antrim is winnable for the UUP if the TUV stand and split the DUP vote.
Upper Bann and East Londonderry become markedly safer for the DUP if the TUV stand down for them in those constituencies.
The UUP will probably still be competitive in Fermanagh & South Tyrone despite Sinn Féin's apparent rise in the polls so long as they are the only Unionist party standing in the constituency.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Nov 15, 2023 18:24:46 GMT
So Belfast North and Fermanagh+South Tyrone will likely stay SF thanks to the good polling
I'm inclined to agree on Upper Bann- it'll probably be a lot closer but I think tactical voting will save the DUP. Same with the other two unionist-leaning seats that SF could have a theoretical chance in (East Londonderry and South Antrim)- they'll get a lot closer but not be able to pull off a win.
Alliance gains Belfast East thanks to the DUP's poor position, I would say. They'll also probably at least try to pose a credible challenge in Lagan Valley, Strangford, and East Antrim- none of which are likely to actually fall, but the theoretical prospect will probably worry the DUP a bit and leave them on the defensive.
Foyle... it being a clear SDLP vs SF race will make things a bit harder for SF. 2019 saw a drop in the unionist vote that can only really be explained by tactical voting for the SDLP. Colum Eastwood is a strong incumbent too. It'll definitely be closer than 2019 of course, but if I had to guess, I'd say Eastwood holds on.
Belfast South is an entirely different matter. Massive SDLP majority in 2019 but a very poor performance in the 2022 Assembly election (much worse than their performance in Foyle). Certainly no de facto anti DUP pact this time; I think we'll be seeing another four-way SDLP vs DUP vs Alliance vs Sinn Fein race like in 2015/2017. Boundary changes will marginally help the DUP but they have a low ceiling still. Significant Green/UUP vote too eating into other parties' vote shares. Alliance and Sinn Fein are doing better now than when they were 3rd/4th here in 2015/2017, but Paula Bradshaw always seems to underperform a bit for Alliance at Westminster elections and I see no reason to not believe she will again (a lot of the Alliance voters in 2022 will probably go for Claire Hanna). Both Sinn Fein and the DUP have a shot if the winner gets a low percentage of the vote, but neither is realistically likely crack 30%. I think on the basis of candidate quality (assuming Deirdre Hargey for Sinn Fein and Paula Bradshaw for Alliance), I'll predict a narrow Sinn Fein gain, but this is definitely the seat I'm least sure of.
So...
SF 8 (+1)
DUP 7 (-1)
APNI 2 (+1)
SDLP 1 (-1)
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Nov 15, 2023 18:38:16 GMT
South Antrim is winnable for the UUP if the TUV stand and split the DUP vote. It's also worth remembering that in South Antrim in the 2022 Assembly election, Sinn Fein got 20.1%, and the combined nationalist vote (including PBP) was 29%. South Antrim is probably one of the seats where the unionist vote is the least unified behind the DUP- the UUP are a major presence, the TUV won't win but aren't entirely insignificant, Alliance performs decently among the soft unionist voters- add on the potential of lower unionist turnout, and there is an actual chance of a Sinn Fein win here with a low (sub-30%) share of the vote. I'm not expecting it to actually happen, requires a perfect storm for Sinn Fein so I'd give it a less than 10% chance, but the fact it's even a possibility is quite strange to think. |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 15, 2023 18:57:34 GMT
So Belfast North and Fermanagh+South Tyrone will likely stay SF thanks to the good polling I'm inclined to agree on Upper Bann- it'll probably be a lot closer but I think tactical voting will save the DUP. Same with the other two unionist-leaning seats that SF could have a theoretical chance in (East Londonderry and South Antrim)- they'll get a lot closer but not be able to pull off a win. Alliance gains Belfast East thanks to the DUP's poor position, I would say. They'll also probably at least try to pose a credible challenge in Lagan Valley, Strangford, and East Antrim- none of which are likely to actually fall, but the theoretical prospect will probably worry the DUP a bit and leave them on the defensive. Foyle... it being a clear SDLP vs SF race will make things a bit harder for SF. 2019 saw a drop in the unionist vote that can only really be explained by tactical voting for the SDLP. Colum Eastwood is a strong incumbent too. It'll definitely be closer than 2019 of course, but if I had to guess, I'd say Eastwood holds on. Belfast South is an entirely different matter. Massive SDLP majority in 2019 but a very poor performance in the 2022 Assembly election (much worse than their performance in Foyle). Certainly no de facto anti DUP pact this time; I think we'll be seeing another four-way SDLP vs DUP vs Alliance vs Sinn Fein race like in 2015/2017. Boundary changes will marginally help the DUP but they have a low ceiling still. Significant Green/UUP vote too eating into other parties' vote shares. Alliance and Sinn Fein are doing better now than when they were 3rd/4th here in 2015/2017, but Paula Bradshaw always seems to underperform a bit for Alliance at Westminster elections and I see no reason to not believe she will again (a lot of the Alliance voters in 2022 will probably go for Claire Hanna). Both Sinn Fein and the DUP have a shot if the winner gets a low percentage of the vote, but neither is realistically likely crack 30%. I think on the basis of candidate quality (assuming Deirdre Hargey for Sinn Fein and Paula Bradshaw for Alliance), I'll predict a narrow Sinn Fein gain, but this is definitely the seat I'm least sure of. So... SF 8 (+1) DUP 7 (-1) APNI 2 (+1) SDLP 1 (-1) I am less sure about the SDLP holding Foyle than South Belfast, and I am sure that Colum Eastwood will, with a much reduced majority, hold that seat. Claire Hanna is a perfect fit for the constituency, has cross-party support and, if it seemed likely SF would gain the seat, the moderate unionists will vote for her. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Nov 15, 2023 19:42:31 GMT
I am less sure about the SDLP holding Foyle than South Belfast, and I am sure that Colum Eastwood will, with a much reduced majority, hold that seat. Claire Hanna is a perfect fit for the constituency, has cross-party support and, if it seemed likely SF would gain the seat, the moderate unionists will vote for her. She is a good fit for the constituency but has the problem that the SDLP is very weak in Belfast South (probably the weakest party of the four main contenders) and that there are plenty of people who would compete with her voters. Green and Alliance of course, and if Deirdre Hargey is selected for Sinn Fein, she's a former Lord Mayor of Belfast who doesn't exactly have radical vibes. Being a good politician doesn't guarantee you keeping your seat (look at Nichola Mallon). |
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Post by boondock on Jan 27, 2024 11:04:04 GMT
Peter Shirlow of the IIS was pushing the line a few months back that the large number of undecided voters in his polls at the time were predominantly stay-at-home unionists (this has been a consistent and ideologically-convenient theme of his over a long period) and that as the number of undecided declined closer to the election, then unionist parties would stage a recovery.
This has not really been borne out by events. It's much more likely that unenthusiastic voters are those disproportionally ideologically uncommitted to either nationalism or unionism. Only just found this thread. This above post is so true. I find it so frustrating when Shirlow constantly spouts this on TV and no-one ever challenges him. He always says Alliance voters are pro-union and no polls have ever shown otherwise .... Except for plenty of er actual polls and any election result transfers but let's just ignore them. I find it baffling that the Irish news, one of the leaders of civic nationalism keeps using his awful polls. I mean why in this day and age do they still use face to face polling FFS. Is it right for someone with such a clear bias to be so heavily involved with polling, polling that seems to carry more weight than actual election results on influencing whether any future referendum is held or not. At least Bill White at Lucid keeps his personal views more discreetly |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 27, 2024 12:37:28 GMT
I mean why in this day and age do they still use face to face polling FFS Easy to forget now that this was the main method of polling well within living memory - I took part in some face to face surveys for Gallup back in 1990 (my stint just happened to cover Thatcher's fall and Major's rise, and the change in public sentiment in that period was indeed quite real) |
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obsie
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Post by obsie on Jan 27, 2024 14:45:31 GMT
I find it baffling that the Irish news, one of the leaders of civic nationalism keeps using his awful polls. I mean why in this day and age do they still use face to face polling FFS. Is it right for someone with such a clear bias to be so heavily involved with polling, polling that seems to carry more weight than actual election results on influencing whether any future referendum is held or not. At least Bill White at Lucid keeps his personal views more discreetly It's not, to be fair, that the two sets of polls are producing drastically different results (as opposed to the NILTS surveys, which might be useful looking at trends over time but are garbage when it comes to voting intentions). The issue is Shirlow spinning the results in the cause of his preferred political position. It's not on the scale of Goodwin but it's not especially helpful in actually understanding what might be happening. Face-to-face can be problematic in a society like Northern Ireland where people have incentives not to reveal their true opinions to strangers - although less so than in the past - but looking at the Republic, the panel pollsters have a long-running habit of overstating the most Online parties (currently the Social Democrats) and understating the most "normie" parties, so the two things can balance out. |
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