clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765 
|
Post by clyde1998 on Jan 22, 2022 11:29:03 GMT
Oth 7%: (Grn 3%, PBP 1%, Oth 3%).
|
|
relique
Socialist
Posts: 1,732
Member is Online
|
Post by relique on Jan 22, 2022 12:19:53 GMT
Oth 7%: (Grn 3%, PBP 1%, Oth 3%). Not so bad for the unionists. If transfers are not desperately bad, this would leave them with the most numerous side and the first minister position. SF would need a high Alliance vote siphoning the soft unionist vote to get the first minister position, and bad unionist transfers. |
|
|
|
Post by jollyroger93 on Jan 22, 2022 14:23:20 GMT
Oth 7%: (Grn 3%, PBP 1%, Oth 3%). I expect the Alliance and TUV votes to get squeeze by UUP and DUP. |
|
|
|
Post by seanryanj on Jan 22, 2022 17:21:43 GMT
I wonder if that tuv number is a bit high
I would not have guessed that 12 percent of people knew the name of the party. The Alliance vote should be interesting they only got 8 percent last time so they would be in a good position at even 12 percent a 50% increase and transfer friendly. The dup looks to be in a bad place and I read somewhere that they are expecting retirements so one can see why the wanted mps to run.
|
|
obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 866
|
Post by obsie on Jan 23, 2022 3:17:08 GMT
Oth 7%: (Grn 3%, PBP 1%, Oth 3%). I expect the Alliance and TUV votes to get squeeze by UUP and DUP. TUV by DUP, perhaps, although alienation may be enough that a considerable numbers of their votes will just exhaust on elimination and not transfer.
This is, however, not your father's Alliance Party - a middle-class coalition of ecumenically-minded churchgoing Protestants and status-quo supporting Catholics with tactical Nationalist support in south Antrim, north Down and the nicer Belfast suburbs. The party now presents itself as a "progressive" non-sectarian alternative appealing to the middle ground tired of the usual bickering and pro-change (ironically enough, this same "change" vote is a major factor in SF's surge in the republic) and attitudinal surveys have shown a plurality of Alliance support now being pro-UI. I'm not entirely sure that the party leadership itself has fully internalized that change.
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,452
|
Post by iain on Jan 23, 2022 14:28:26 GMT
Will the TUV even run candidates in every seat? I don’t think they ever have before.
|
|
|
|
Post by MeirionGwril on Feb 14, 2022 8:48:14 GMT
'Poll puts Sinn Féin on course to be largest Stormont party'
Sinn Féin is on course to become the largest party at Stormont after the May 5 Assembly elections, according to a new opinion poll.
The Institute of Irish Studies University of Liverpool/The Irish News survey puts Sinn Féin at 23.2% of first preference votes among decided voters, well ahead of the DUP on 19.4%.
The poll shows the Alliance Party emerging as the third force in the Assembly with 15.6%, ahead of the Ulster Unionists on 14%, the SDLP on 9.9%, the TUV on 6.4% and the Green Party on 6.3%.
If the results were replicated in the Stormont election in 11 weeks’ time, it would put Michelle O’Neill on course to become first minister, although neither of the main unionist parties have yet indicated if they would nominate for the role of deputy first minister in the event of Sinn Féin becoming the largest party.
The poll also shows that little more than one in 10 unionists regard the Northern Ireland Protocol as the most important issue in the election.
Just 6.7% of all respondents said the post-Brexit trade arrangements were their biggest concern, with unionists (11.7%) roughly four times more likely to regard it as the most important issue compared to nationalists (3%).
The DUP withdrew Paul Givan as first minister in protest at the protocol and have demanded that the UK Government scrap the Irish Sea border.
But the opinion poll indicates that health is a bigger priority among unionists with 29.6% indicating it was their biggest concern, while 22.9% said the economy and 17% cited Covid recovery as the highest priority.
Nationalists polled also regard health (41.5%), the economy (22.5%) and Covid recovery (11.9%) as the most important issues.
The poll also shows that one in five voters do not know who they will vote for at the Assembly elections and 11.9% of those surveyed said they will not vote.
The Institute of Irish Studies director, Professor Peter Shirlow, told the Irish News: “The majority of those who are as yet undecided are either unionists or in the middle ground, which suggests they have been influenced by recent events.
“The survey began amid the fallout from (Ulster Unionist leader) Doug Beattie’s Twitter controversy and continued through Paul Givan’s resignation – it’s very possible these two factors had a bearing on people’s hesitancy.”
Prof Shirlow said the proportion of nationalists who had yet to make up their mind was comparatively small.
“We know that this group of undecideds tends to be pro-union and socially liberal, so it would appear to be a battle between the middle ground and elements of political unionism for that vote.”
The Institute of Irish Studies University of Liverpool study in conjunction with The Irish News was conducted by Social Market Research Belfast from a sample of 1,002 people between January 25 and February 7. Margin of error: 3.1 per cent +/-.
From Irish Examiner, 14/02/2022
|
|
obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 866
|
Post by obsie on Feb 15, 2022 8:00:02 GMT
The Institute of Irish Studies director, Professor Peter Shirlow, told the Irish News: “The majority of those who are as yet undecided are either unionists or in the middle ground, which suggests they have been influenced by recent events. “The survey began amid the fallout from (Ulster Unionist leader) Doug Beattie’s Twitter controversy and continued through Paul Givan’s resignation – it’s very possible these two factors had a bearing on people’s hesitancy.” Prof Shirlow said the proportion of nationalists who had yet to make up their mind was comparatively small. “We know that this group of undecideds tends to be pro-union and socially liberal, so it would appear to be a battle between the middle ground and elements of political unionism for that vote.” What I've seen from their own data suggests that the undecideds are predominantly agnostic on the issue rather than pro-union, so I'm not convinced by Shirlow's editorializing here which happily coincides with his own preferred politics. |
|
|
|
Post by redtony on Feb 15, 2022 21:03:16 GMT
There must be a chance that alliance or the UUF willl come second to SF which will be intersting Id alliand comes second to SF would cause problems under the Good Friday agreement on Power sharing.
But I would saygood problems
|
|
clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
|
Post by clyde1998 on Feb 16, 2022 1:09:16 GMT
There must be a chance that alliance or the UUF willl come second to SF which will be intersting Id alliand comes second to SF would cause problems under the Good Friday agreement on Power sharing. But I would saygood problems Yes - it's entirely possible for the DUP to finish fourth if the poll's suggestions about undecided voters are true. Transfers will be very important though; I don't recall seeing a poll asking about second preferences for this election. Unfortunately, most of the easily accessible data on transfers in 2017 include intra-party transfers (eg. from a DUP candidate to another DUP candidate) - however there was a push in 2017 for UUP voters to second preference the SDLP and vice-versa. This suggests the UUP received the largest amount of SDLP transfers, while the SDLP and Alliance won more transfers combined than the DUP did from UUP first preference voters. |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Feb 16, 2022 12:54:16 GMT
There must be a chance that alliance or the UUF willl come second to SF which will be intersting Id alliand comes second to SF would cause problems under the Good Friday agreement on Power sharing. But I would saygood problems Yes - it's entirely possible for the DUP to finish fourth if the poll's suggestions about undecided voters are true. Transfers will be very important though; I don't recall seeing a poll asking about second preferences for this election. Unfortunately, most of the easily accessible data on transfers in 2017 include intra-party transfers (eg. from a DUP candidate to another DUP candidate) - however there was a push in 2017 for UUP voters to second preference the SDLP and vice-versa. This suggests the UUP received the largest amount of SDLP transfers, while the SDLP and Alliance won more transfers combined than the DUP did from UUP first preference voters. Polls on the NI assembly should routinely ask people to rank the Parties in order. Lower preferences than second can easily make a difference, but modelling that is quite complicated. |
|
clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
|
Post by clyde1998 on Mar 28, 2022 19:15:53 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 28, 2022 19:43:34 GMT
In terms of quotas per constituency, that averages out roughly as: SF -0.1 quota, DUP -0.5 quota, APNI +0.4, UUP 0, SDLP -0.1, TUV +0.4 compared to 2017 (usual caveat about rounding). |
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Apr 4, 2022 11:31:21 GMT
I leave this here, though I am not necessarily convinced by the pollsters:
|
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on Apr 4, 2022 14:36:20 GMT
I leave this here, though I am not necessarily convinced by the pollsters: That poll also asked about the key issues. It seems that the Protocol isn't the main concern even among Unionists. To Unionists 21% see that as the main issue as against 30% for the economy and 25% for health. Only 2% of Nationalists ranked it as their main concern. That suggests that the DUP emphasis hasn't been particularly effective so far (though its salience among Unionists has increased since the question was last asked). |
|
clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
|
Post by clyde1998 on Apr 4, 2022 15:38:07 GMT
I leave this here, though I am not necessarily convinced by the pollsters: I'm not convinced by them either, however that might partially come down to LucidTalk polling more people than even a GB poll would - which minimises the risk of a certain demographic having a outlying result - and LucidTalk's prior accuracy. That being said compared to the last LucidTalk poll, which was conducted at basically the same time, only the TUV and Greens are more than a single percentage point different. This poll also includes a constitutional question (which I'd argue is not an optimal question): I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrowAgree 30.0% Disagree 45.3% Neither 18.7% Don't know 6.0% This poll does also ask about second preferences (which due to the small sample size, of 1,000, should be taken with a pinch of salt - especially for the smaller parties): The top row shows the first preferences
| DUP | SF | SDLP | UUP | APNI | TUV | Grn | PBP | | DUP | X | 2.0% | 5.3% | 17.0% | 2.8% | 40.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% | | SF | 0.7% | X | 15.8% | 0.0% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 18.8% | 26.7% | | SDLP | 6.6% | 49.3% | X | 7.0% | 26.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 20.0% | | UUP | 49.7% | 2.5% | 10.5% | X | 16.5% | 20.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% | | APNI | 4.6% | 13.4% | 43.4% | 31.0% | X | 0.0% | 46.9% | 0.0% | | TUV | 21.2% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 22.0% | 1.8% | X | 0.0% | 0.0% | | Grn | 2.0% | 10.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 18.3% | 2.5% | X | 20.0% | | PBP | 0.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 0.0% | 9.4% | X | | Aontu | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0%
| | Con | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0%
| | DK | 6.0% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 17.4% | 17.5% | 9.4% | 13.3% | | None | 8.6% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 0.9% | 15.0% | 6.3% | 20.0% |
|
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Apr 6, 2022 10:05:55 GMT
For sheer bloody-minded stupidity, this tweet is brilliant.
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Apr 6, 2022 13:09:01 GMT
I leave this here, though I am not necessarily convinced by the pollsters: I'm not convinced by them either, however that might partially come down to LucidTalk polling more people than even a GB poll would - which minimises the risk of a certain demographic having a outlying result - and LucidTalk's prior accuracy. That being said compared to the last LucidTalk poll, which was conducted at basically the same time, only the TUV and Greens are more than a single percentage point different. This poll also includes a constitutional question (which I'd argue is not an optimal question): I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrowAgree 30.0% Disagree 45.3% Neither 18.7% Don't know 6.0% This poll does also ask about second preferences (which due to the small sample size, of 1,000, should be taken with a pinch of salt - especially for the smaller parties): The top row shows the first preferences
| DUP | SF | SDLP | UUP | APNI | TUV | Grn | PBP | | DUP | X | 2.0% | 5.3% | 17.0% | 2.8% | 40.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% | | SF | 0.7% | X | 15.8% | 0.0% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 18.8% | 26.7% | | SDLP | 6.6% | 49.3% | X | 7.0% | 26.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 20.0% | | UUP | 49.7% | 2.5% | 10.5% | X | 16.5% | 20.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% | | APNI | 4.6% | 13.4% | 43.4% | 31.0% | X | 0.0% | 46.9% | 0.0% | | TUV | 21.2% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 22.0% | 1.8% | X | 0.0% | 0.0% | | Grn | 2.0% | 10.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 18.3% | 2.5% | X | 20.0% | | PBP | 0.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 0.0% | 9.4% | X | | Aontu | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0%
| | Con | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0%
| | DK | 6.0% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 17.4% | 17.5% | 9.4% | 13.3% | | None | 8.6% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 0.9% | 15.0% | 6.3% | 20.0% |
If I read that right, APNI voters are now more Catholic than Protestant. (and pretty Green) Edit: although perhaps there is a mistake since the row adds up to a lot more than 100%! |
|
clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
|
Post by clyde1998 on Apr 6, 2022 14:13:20 GMT
I'm not convinced by them either, however that might partially come down to LucidTalk polling more people than even a GB poll would - which minimises the risk of a certain demographic having a outlying result - and LucidTalk's prior accuracy. That being said compared to the last LucidTalk poll, which was conducted at basically the same time, only the TUV and Greens are more than a single percentage point different. This poll also includes a constitutional question (which I'd argue is not an optimal question): I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrowAgree 30.0% Disagree 45.3% Neither 18.7% Don't know 6.0% This poll does also ask about second preferences (which due to the small sample size, of 1,000, should be taken with a pinch of salt - especially for the smaller parties): The top row shows the first preferences
| DUP | SF | SDLP | UUP | APNI | TUV | Grn | PBP | | DUP | X | 2.0% | 5.3% | 17.0% | 2.8% | 40.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% | | SF | 0.7% | X | 15.8% | 0.0% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 18.8% | 26.7% | | SDLP | 6.6% | 49.3% | X | 7.0% | 26.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 20.0% | | UUP | 49.7% | 2.5% | 10.5% | X | 16.5% | 20.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% | | APNI | 4.6% | 13.4% | 43.4% | 31.0% | X | 0.0% | 46.9% | 0.0% | | TUV | 21.2% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 22.0% | 1.8% | X | 0.0% | 0.0% | | Grn | 2.0% | 10.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 18.3% | 2.5% | X | 20.0% | | PBP | 0.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 0.0% | 9.4% | X | | Aontu | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0%
| | Con | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0%
| | DK | 6.0% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 17.4% | 17.5% | 9.4% | 13.3% | | None | 8.6% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 0.9% | 15.0% | 6.3% | 20.0% |
If I read that right, APNI voters are now more Catholic than Protestant. (and pretty Green) Edit: although perhaps there is a mistake since the row adds up to a lot more than 100%! Sorry, the transfers are the columns rather than the rows. So Sinn Féin gain 0.7% of DUP transfers and the DUP gain 2.0% of Sinn Féin transfers. Alliance voters do seem more likely transfer more to nationalist parties than unionists though - however that's going to be more to do with pragmatic reasons that Alliance voters suddenly becoming rabid republicans. They do gain a large amount of transfers from both the SDLP and UUP, which will no doubt help them win a sizable number of seats. |
|
clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
|
Post by clyde1998 on Apr 6, 2022 14:35:26 GMT
I just did a rough calculation of seats based on the most recent polling:
SF 27 (nc)
DUP 20 (-8)
APNI 16 (+8)
UUP 11 (+1)
SDLP 9 (-3)
TUV 3 (+2)
Grn 2 (nc)
PBP 2 (+1)
Oth 0 (-1)
This is based on rough uniform multiplicative adjustments for each party which will over or understate parties in certain constituencies. As there isn't a base figure for the TUV, they're missing a candidate in a number of seats in this calculation, which will overstate their position in other seats.
Additionally, this is based on the candidate list on Wikipedia last night, plus a Sinn Féin candidate in Strangford. To estimate how well each individual candidate might do, I calculated using: ((n+1) - r) / ((n²+n) / 2) where n is the number of candidates and r is the 'rank' of the candidate (ie. the 'r'th place candidate of each party) - so if there are three candidates for a single party, the 1st placed candidate was given 3/6 (50%) of the party's first preferences, 2nd got 2/6 (33.3%) and 3rd received 1/6 (16.6%). A different distribution of votes would lead to different seat figures.
As a rough estimate, it looks plausible.
|
|
