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Post by andrew111 on Aug 29, 2021 17:56:02 GMT
UUP+TUV+DUP = 43% SF+SDLP+PBF+Gr = 42% One wonders what the split in Alliance would be at a referendum? Possibly you will be able to see that rather small crossbreak when the tabs are published on Tuesday or Wednesday (according to twitter). As said below the Alliance vote is traditionally Protestant, but perhaps they are Protestants who would prefer a united Ireland along with EU membership? |
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 29, 2021 18:07:20 GMT
UUP+TUV+DUP = 43% SF+SDLP+PBF+Gr = 42% One wonders what the split in Alliance would be at a referendum? Possibly you will be able to see that rather small crossbreak when the tabs are published on Tuesday or Wednesday (according to twitter). As said below the Alliance vote is traditionally Protestant, but perhaps they are Protestants who would prefer a united Ireland along with EU membership? My friend who votes Alliance says that in his area they are a mixture of Catholics, because noone lies as low as a Larne Catholic, and Protestants who are pragmatic and certainly at the moment prepared to go with the flow on a United Ireland. He is Protestant and his sister is one of Arlene's best friends - they used to run the Unionist society at Queen's. |
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obsie
Non-Aligned
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Post by obsie on Aug 29, 2021 18:07:22 GMT
UUP+TUV+DUP = 43% SF+SDLP+PBF+Gr = 42% One wonders what the split in Alliance would be at a referendum? Alliance (and to a lesser extent the Greens) largely attract middle class people from a Protestant background. Their voter bases will have traditionally been modestly but overwhelmingly unionist, and despite recent slippage I suspect push comes to shove they would mostly vote to remain part of the UK. At this point, I would suspect their support is drawn roughly 50:50 (slightly more "unionist" for Alliance, slightly more "nationalist" for the Greens) - a mixture of old-school liberal/ecumenical Protestants, middle-class cultural Catholics who are either very small "u" pro-union or live in areas where the SDLP is not competitive, and predominantly younger secular voters from both sides who consider themselves "progressive" and "post-tribal". |
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 29, 2021 18:19:39 GMT
Diving into the data the figures are actually awesome for the UUP Beattie is by far the most popular leader in NI and Swann is by far the most popular Minister, still a long way to go till the election but if I was the UUP I’d be looking to becoming the first unionist party once again. Remember when a young (for the province) politician left the UUP almost immediately after it stopped being the largest Unionist party? Who would have though a UUP revival would be the thing that could stop him becoming the leader of the leading Unionist party at an election? |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 29, 2021 18:23:20 GMT
Diving into the data the figures are actually awesome for the UUP Beattie is by far the most popular leader in NI and Swann is by far the most popular Minister, still a long way to go till the election but if I was the UUP I’d be looking to becoming the first unionist party once again. Remember when a young (for the province) politician left the UUP almost immediately after it stopped being the largest Unionist party? Who would have though a UUP revival would be the thing that could stop him becoming the leader of the leading Unionist party at an election? "Karma"
or something.
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
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Post by Toylyyev on Aug 29, 2021 18:38:59 GMT
I was astonished (at the low position of the DUP) when I saw that tweet this morning, but when I clicked on it I found that most of the replies were about the decline in support for the Alliance Party. Of course that decline is only recent and from a relatively high position. I think people are also missing the rise of the TUV, even more right wing than the DUP looks like moderate DUP voters are going UUP and more right wing voters going TUV I have had the TUV Jim's shop as preferred choice among this brand of Nats for some time, but have yet to find a vote matcher that reveals my more right wing inclination.  |
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Post by therealriga on Aug 29, 2021 19:31:43 GMT
There's another possibility in this, which is that the Lucid Talk poll is, as it often is, a load of old tosh. I can well believe Alliance will be up, DUP will be down a good bit, and TUV benefitting from the latter but the figures look suspect.
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Post by relique on Aug 29, 2021 22:00:18 GMT
There's another possibility in this, which is that the Lucid Talk poll is, as it often is, a load of old tosh. I can well believe Alliance will be up, DUP will be down a good bit, and TUV benefitting from the latter but the figures look suspect. There's probably a bit more inertia in the northern irish electorate than in those studies, but the trends' indications are probably accurate. |
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Post by seanryanj on Aug 29, 2021 23:19:48 GMT
There's another possibility in this, which is that the Lucid Talk poll is, as it often is, a load of old tosh. I can well believe Alliance will be up, DUP will be down a good bit, and TUV benefitting from the latter but the figures look suspect. There's probably a bit more inertia in the northern irish electorate than in those studies, but the trends' indications are probably accurate. In fairness swann has preformed well under difficult circumstances...in this years elections snp and Labour in Wales and even tories in England did well and all had the health jobs! Beastie at least can get some soft unionists back from all! It is the tuv vote that is head scratching? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2021 9:05:50 GMT
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 30, 2021 9:33:48 GMT
Haven't we been discussing this poll on this thread for the past couple of days? |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 30, 2021 9:34:27 GMT
Yes, that's the poll we have been discussing  |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Aug 30, 2021 9:49:59 GMT
Do they ever include VI figures for Westminster? Would be interesting to see those as well as for the Assembly.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Aug 30, 2021 9:55:04 GMT
Haven't we been discussing this poll on this thread for the past couple of days? Ah, that requires having a ‘receive’ mode rather than just ‘transmit’. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2021 10:26:39 GMT
🙄
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2021 11:49:28 GMT
Haven't we been discussing this poll on this thread for the past couple of days? In my defence, I only saw the tweet today and don't really go to this thread. |
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Post by seanryanj on Nov 5, 2021 0:31:55 GMT
Latest bbc view poll
SF 23.5
DUP 20.6
ALL 17.3
UUP 13
SDLP 11.4
TUV 5.6
GP 3.9
Oth 4.7
Probably more interesting..
More room for dup to play 1st min card
Strong showing by alliance and very transfer friendly
Otherwise uup will be disappointed
Sdlp and sf nothing to write home about!
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Post by seanryanj on Nov 5, 2021 1:04:58 GMT
Latest bbc view poll SF 23.5 DUP 20.6 ALL 17.3 UUP 13 SDLP 11.4 TUV 5.6 GP 3.9 Oth 4.7 Probably more interesting.. More room for dup to play 1st min card Strong showing by alliance and very transfer friendly Otherwise uup will be disappointed Sdlp and sf nothing to write home about! Most pundits are slow to put alliance up there in seats put at this stage you have to say they have a chance of 50% increase in vote and thats put them above other runners who might transfer to them. Dup can defo push the unionist vote...and can sf squeeze the sdlp vote Eastwood is a strong performer! The debates will be interesting |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Nov 13, 2021 11:28:57 GMT
New LucidTalk (changes from last poll)
Sinn Fein - 24 (-1)
DUP - 18 (+5)
APNI - 15 (+2)
UUP - 14 (-2)
SDLP - 12 (-1)
TUV - 11 (-3)
Green - 2 (-)
PBP - 2 (-)
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Dec 12, 2021 12:30:08 GMT
There's a new big Lord Ashcroft poll of Northern Ireland.
Some headline figures are:
54% are in favour of the union in a border poll vs. 46% in favour of reunification. However, the age disparity is huge. 71% of those aged 18-24 are in favour of reunification whilst only 25% of those aged 65+ are.
55% are in favour of a border poll in the next decade whilst 45% are against.
57% are in favour of keeping the NI protocol vs. 43% against.
67% think Brexit makes reunification more likely whilst only 13% think it makes it less likely.
Majorities in both unionist and nationalist communities think the cost of living and taxation would go up in a united Ireland although they diverge greatly on things like investment, education standards and unemployment.
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