Northern Ireland polls

[stb12]

Despite all the hype over a Sinn Fein First Minister, it doesn’t really seem like nationalist representation is going to rise much if at all

[andrew111]

Apr 6, 2022 14:13:20 GMT clyde1998 said:

Apr 6, 2022 13:09:01 GMT andrew111 said:

If I read that right, APNI voters are now more Catholic than Protestant. (and pretty Green)

Edit: although perhaps there is a mistake since the row adds up to a lot more than 100%!

Sorry, the transfers are the columns rather than the rows. So Sinn Féin gain 0.7% of DUP transfers and the DUP gain 2.0% of Sinn Féin transfers.

Alliance voters do seem more likely transfer more to nationalist parties than unionists though - however that's going to be more to do with pragmatic reasons that Alliance voters suddenly becoming rabid republicans.

They do gain a large amount of transfers from both the SDLP and UUP, which will no doubt help them win a sizable number of seats.

Thanks, that makes more sense!

I was not trying to pretend the Alliance were rabid republicans, but transfers to SDLP vs UUP I was assuming indicated which community they came from? I have seen it said on here that the Alliance was originally mainly from the Protestant community

It would be interesting to know if any of the large transfer from SF to SDLP continues on to APNI in lower preferences

[MeirionGwril]

The loyalist loons are now trying to argue that even if DUP is not largest party, they should still get 1st minister if total vote has more unionists than nationalists. The opinion poll noted above shows that it's difficult to assess this. If the Greens are counted with nationalists then it would seem nationalists have the larger share. As the Greens put themselves with the alliance as 'neither', then unionists lead. But one would also have to know the split among the independents and others. If the count is done by seats on the projected numbers of seats (above) then nationalists would be the largest. Interesting to see what actually happens!

[Smartie]

There is a real switch in politics in NI amongst the under 35s from a unionist background, where they simply don't concede that they have to vote DUP/UUP to maintain their identity. The DUP have really been seen as the problem creators in Brexit/protocol/ crashing the assembly, which has caused the move to Alliance/Green voting.

[CatholicLeft]

May 2, 2022 7:56:05 GMT Smartie said:

There is a real switch in politics in NI amongst the under 35s from a unionist background, where they simply don't concede that they have to vote DUP/UUP to maintain their identity. The DUP have really been seen as the problem creators in Brexit/protocol/ crashing the assembly, which has caused the move to Alliance/Green voting.

Yes, however polling evidence seems to suggest that young people from Nationalist backgrounds are more likely to vote Alliance or Green, though the evidence is also there for a growing number from a unionist background.

[CatholicLeft]

Another poll coming for the Irish News tomorrow - Northern Irish political bod, David McCann, says it will "give some leaders a spring in their step in the final days."

[clyde1998]

May 2, 2022 16:35:55 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Another poll coming for the Irish News tomorrow - Northern Irish political bod, David McCann, says it will "give some leaders a spring in their step in the final days."

Presumably that's the University of Liverpool poll; will be interesting to see if there's any differences to the LucidTalk polling. They've had the TUV significantly lower in each of their polls.

[CatholicLeft]

May 2, 2022 17:52:31 GMT clyde1998 said:

May 2, 2022 16:35:55 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Another poll coming for the Irish News tomorrow - Northern Irish political bod, David McCann, says it will "give some leaders a spring in their step in the final days."

Presumably that's the University of Liverpool poll; will be interesting to see if there's any differences to the LucidTalk polling. They've had the TUV significantly lower in each of their polls.

It is indeed - from what is being flagged, it may well be different from LT. 

[mattbewilson]

[CatholicLeft]

May 3, 2022 12:21:14 GMT mattbewilson said:

Total  vote for the three main Unionist parties at 36% is too low, and the APNI vote to high. I suspect this is this year's outlier. I expect the Alliance to do well, but not this well.

[LDCaerdydd]

I also can’t see the Alliance doing that well/coming second.

Hypothetically though if The Alliance Party came second which party would get the dFM role? I don’t think a party designating as ‘other’ is in contention. Could it still be the DUP even though they finish a close third?

[CatholicLeft]

May 3, 2022 13:25:35 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

I also can’t see the Alliance doing that well/coming second.

Hypothetically though if The Alliance Party came second which party would get the dFM role? I don’t think a party designating as ‘other’ is in contention. Could it still be the DUP even though they finish a close third?

"Other" cannot take the dFM role,  it must be a community designation, and, even if DUP come third (which I doubt) they will be the largest party in the designation of Unionist, so would get the role. It really is time for Stormont to have normal politics with an Opposition. Watching 5 leader's debate when they are all in government is rather farcical - arguing about how many seats each get at the table.

[mattbewilson]

May 3, 2022 14:13:24 GMT CatholicLeft said:

May 3, 2022 13:25:35 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

I also can’t see the Alliance doing that well/coming second.

Hypothetically though if The Alliance Party came second which party would get the dFM role? I don’t think a party designating as ‘other’ is in contention. Could it still be the DUP even though they finish a close third?

"Other" cannot take the dFM role,  it must be a community designation, and, even if DUP come third (which I doubt) they will be the largest party in the designation of Unionist, so would get the role. It really is time for Stormont to have normal politics with an Opposition. Watching 5 leader's debate when they are all in government is rather farcical - arguing about how many seats each get at the table.

I actually quite like it.

I'm not always keen on coalition politics but I think in the case of northern Ireland forcing the two sides to work together is a good idea imo.

[LDCaerdydd]

May 3, 2022 14:13:24 GMT CatholicLeft said:

May 3, 2022 13:25:35 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

I also can’t see the Alliance doing that well/coming second.

Hypothetically though if The Alliance Party came second which party would get the dFM role? I don’t think a party designating as ‘other’ is in contention. Could it still be the DUP even though they finish a close third?

"Other" cannot take the dFM role,  it must be a community designation, and, even if DUP come third (which I doubt) they will be the largest party in the designation of Unionist, so would get the role.

Thanks 😊

[CatholicLeft]

May 3, 2022 14:51:59 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

May 3, 2022 14:13:24 GMT CatholicLeft said:

"Other" cannot take the dFM role,  it must be a community designation, and, even if DUP come third (which I doubt) they will be the largest party in the designation of Unionist, so would get the role.

Thanks 😊

If "other" became the second largest (or largest) designation, I thinks matters change.

[obsie]

Alliance second preferences in the poll tend quite strongly towards nationalism over unionism:

SDLP 33.1, Green 22.7, UUP 15.1, SF 15.1, DUP 6.2, PBP 4.8, TUV 1.3, Aontú 1.2

UUP transfers are predominantly unionist but even there there's a sizeable ABDUP vote:

DUP 32.6, TUV 27.1, All 23.9, SDLP 5.4, Green 3.6, Aontú 1.2

DUP transfers on the other hand strongly favour their main rivals over the TUV:

UUP 62.8, TUV 24.3, SDLP 4.4, All 4.4, Green 3.2

TUV transfers tend to go back to their parent party:

DUP 54.0, UUP 18.9, Green(!) 18.9, PBP(!!!) 2.7

To complete the set:

SF - SDLP 52.2, All 17.4, Green 9.4, Aontú 7.4, PBP 7.4, TUV(!) 0.4
SDLP - All 37.8, SF 24.3, Green 14.6, UUP 9.7, Aontú 7.3, PBP 4.8
Green - All 50.0, SF 30.0, PBP 10.0, DUP 5.0
PBP - SF 53.3, Green 20.0, SDLP 6.6, All 6.6, Aontú 6.6

[obsie]

Peter Shirlow of the IIS was pushing the line a few months back that the large number of undecided voters in his polls at the time were predominantly stay-at-home unionists (this has been a consistent and ideologically-convenient theme of his over a long period) and that as the number of undecided declined closer to the election, then unionist parties would stage a recovery.

This has not really been borne out by events. It's much more likely that unenthusiastic voters are those disproportionally ideologically uncommitted to either nationalism or unionism.

[No Offence Alan]

May 3, 2022 16:17:56 GMT obsie said:

Alliance second preferences in the poll tend quite strongly towards nationalism over unionism:

SDLP 33.1, Green 22.7, UUP 15.1, SF 15.1, DUP 6.2, PBP 4.8, TUV 1.3, Aontú 1.2

UUP transfers are predominantly unionist but even there there's a sizeable ADUP vote:

DUP 32.6, TUV 27.1, All 23.9, SDLP 5.4, Green 3.6, Aontú 1.2

DUP transfers on the other hand strongly favour their main rivals over the TUV:

UUP 62.8, TUV 24.3, SDLP 4.4, All 4.4, Green 3.2

TUV transfers tend to go back to their parent party:

DUP 54.0, UUP 18.9, Green(!) 18.9, PBP(!!!) 2.7

To complete the set:

SF - SDLP 52.2, All 17.4, Green 9.4, Aontú 7.4, PBP 7.4, TUV(!) 0.4
SDLP - All 37.8, SF 24.3, Green 14.6, UUP 9.7, Aontú 7.3, PBP 4.8
Green - All 50.0, SF 30.0, PBP 10.0, DUP 5.0
PBP - SF 53.3, Green 20.0, SDLP 6.6, All 6.6, Aontú 6.6

Well, it doesn't take a genius, just a professional data analyst, to point out that the TUV sample size is likely to be just 37 and 2.7% represents 1 person, and that 18.9% represents 7 people.
Similarly, the sample size for PBP is likely to be just 15 people.

[Adam in Stroud]

May 3, 2022 15:05:36 GMT CatholicLeft said:

May 3, 2022 14:51:59 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Thanks 😊

If "other" became the second largest (or largest) designation, I thinks matters change.

Yes, relying on wikipedia (dubious, I know, but until someone corrects me...) the respective nominations for FM and DFM go respectively to the largest party (measured by MLAs) of the largest designation and the largest party of the second largest designation.

So to get into contention Alliance would need to win more MLAs than either SF + SDLP or DUP + UUP + TUV. (I'm presuming that e.g. UUP or SDLP would not re-designate as "other", though if both of them did simultaneously I would probably die laughing at the reaction of both DUP and SF).

EDIT: Oops, clearly should have included Greens, Aontu and PBP in that. Presumably Greens and PBP are both listed as "other?"

[Khunanup]

May 3, 2022 16:39:41 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

May 3, 2022 15:05:36 GMT CatholicLeft said:

If "other" became the second largest (or largest) designation, I thinks matters change.

Yes, relying on wikipedia (dubious, I know, but until someone corrects me...) the respective nominations for FM and DFM go respectively to the largest party (measured by MLAs) of the largest designation and the largest party of the second largest designation.

So to get into contention Alliance would need to win more MLAs than either SF + SDLP or DUP + UUP + TUV. (I'm presuming that e.g. UUP or SDLP would not re-designate as "other", though if both of them did simultaneously I would probably die laughing at the reaction of both DUP and SF).

EDIT: Oops, clearly should have included Greens, Aontu and PBP in that. Presumably Greens and PBP are both listed as "other?"

Yes they are.