Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2013 15:19:07 GMT
This is the real first chance we can see how UKIP votes fall
UKIP eliminated
67 to Con, 35 to Lab, 31 to SNP, 31 to Greens, 9 to LD.
Interesting eh ? and maybe shows that they are attracting a lot of protest votes for all but Tories are going to be hiut far worse a swe suspected.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2013 15:28:00 GMT
Wowzers.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2013 15:47:58 GMT
bloody phone ..
but far worse as we suspected
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Post by middleenglander on Jun 21, 2013 17:42:49 GMT
Allerdale DC, Boltons - Independent hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 | | Independent F | 175 | 35.7% | from nowhere | | Conservatives | 157 | 32.0% | -1.8% | | Independent Mrs M | 103 | 21.0% | from nowhere | | Green | 55 | 11.2% | from nowhere | | Independent Mr M | | | -66.2% | | Total votes | 490 | | -271 |
Swing not meaningful Edinburgh UA, Liberton & Gilmerton - Labour gain from SNP | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2010 BE | since 2007 | | Labour | 2,893 | 39.5% | -1.4% | -5.3% | +4.0% | | SNP | 2,248 | 30.7% | -0.9% | +9.9% | +4.1% | | Conservatives | 823 | 11.2% | -1.0% | -4.2% | -3.4% | | Lib Dems | 605 | 8.3% | +0.7% | -2.6% | -6.3% | | Green | 412 | 5.6% | +0.5% | +2.6% | +2.1% | | UKIP | 235 | 3.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent | 64 | 0.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Pirate | 47 | 0.6% | from nowhere | +0.0% | from nowhere | | SSP / Socialist | | | -2.5% | -2.5% | -1.6% | | Solidarity | | | | | -1.0% | | Independents | | | | -1.9% | | | Total votes | 7,327 | | -1,741 | +688 | -5,720 |
Swing on first preference votes small since both 2012 and 2007 but 7½% Labour to SNP compared to September 2010 by-election. Fife UA, Glenrothes North, Leslie & Markinch - Labour hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2007 | | Labour | 1,896 | 45.8% | +4.9% | +14.5% | | SNP | 1,711 | 41.3% | -6.2% | -8.7% | | Conservatives | 272 | 6.6% | +0.8% | -0.8% | | UKIP | 176 | 4.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dems | 83 | 2.0% | +0.5% | -4.0% | Pensioners
Green | | | -4.2%
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-1.3% | | SSP | | | | -1.7% | | Independent | | | | -2.4% | | Total votes | 4,138 | | -1,199 | -2,706 |
Swing on first preference votes SNP to Labour 5½% since 2012 and 11½% since 2007 Milton Keynes UA, Bletchley & Fenny Stratford - Labour hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | since 2008 | | Labour | 1,356 | 39.9% | +3.1% | +3.8% | +8.9% | +8.6% | | UKIP | 855 | 25.2% | +14.3% | +17.6% | +18.0% | +15.7% | | Conservatives | 779 | 22.9% | -12.5% | -15.0% | -22.0% | -27.8% | | Green | 277 | 8.2% | -4.0% | -4.0% | +4.3% | from nowhere | | Lib Dems | 128 | 3.8% | -0.9% | -2.4% | -9.1% | -4.7% | | Total votes | 3,395 | | -54 | -1,075 | -3,044 | -435 |
Swing Labour to UKIP around 5½% since both 2011 and 2012 - but Conservative to Labour 7.8% since 2012, 9.4% since 2011, 15% since 2010 and 18% since 2008 Salford MB, Weaste & Seedley - Labour hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | since 2008 | | Labour | 785 | 44.4% | -10.3% | -3.6% | +2.0% | +16.5% | | UKIP | 401 | 22.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservatives | 260 | 14.7% | +2.1% | +1.1% | -6.5% | -4.9% | | Green | 80 | 4.5% | from nowhere | -3.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | BNP | 74 | 4.2% | -4.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent S | 64 | 3.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dems | 58 | 3.3% | -15.4% | -11.3% | -33.2% | -49.2% | | TUSAC | 30 | 1.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent V | 15 | 0.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Community Action | | | -5.2% | | | | | Independent | | | | -15.8% | | | | Total votes | 1,767 | | -500 | -1,010 | -2,681 | -675 |
Swing not meaningful
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 21, 2013 19:03:04 GMT
This is the real first chance we can see how UKIP votes fall UKIP eliminated 67 to Con, 35 to Lab, 31 to SNP, 31 to Greens, 9 to LD. Interesting eh ? and maybe shows that they are attracting a lot of protest votes for all but Tories are going to be hiut far worse a swe suspected. I think you're reading too much into that. For a start some of those votes may have started with the independant. Secondly anybody who's paid attention to the transfers knows they tend to go in all and no directions. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 21, 2013 21:30:47 GMT
Yes. It's always been something if a dustbin vote which can disappear when a particular councillor goes. Happened in my own ward. In 2004 there were 3 LD councillors. Last year they came last behind Ukip , the Tories and the Greens with about 70 votes Church ward in Bootle? Ahem....Crosby if you don't mind - Bootle constituency! The time where we lost all three seats was in the thrust of the Iraq war which went down very badly in the Waterloo end of the ward. I'd left the party over the issue. It was depressing because all our candidates opposed the war but got taken down with it. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Jun 21, 2013 21:58:35 GMT
Has anybody seen transfers for the Glenrothes result yet?
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Post by thirdchill on Jun 22, 2013 10:14:30 GMT
The other interesting thing about the transfers is that for all of the other parties, there are more transfers going to Labour than the SNP. I would expect it for some parties but I wouldn't have expected it for all parties.
If labour can do this for other seats where they are marginal between labour and the SNP then they might make some good gains from the SNP in future elections. Only time will tell.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 22, 2013 15:34:18 GMT
The other interesting thing about the transfers is that for all of the other parties, there are more transfers going to Labour than the SNP. I would expect it for some parties but I wouldn't have expected it for all parties. If labour can do this for other seats where they are marginal between labour and the SNP then they might make some good gains from the SNP in future elections. Only time will tell. The SNP were surprisingly un-transfer friendly in Edinburgh last May as well, so I'm not that surprised about that. In fact, if you look at the results for this ward last May, you would probably have expected the second SNP candidate to overhaul the small advantage the Conservative had with transfers, but they failed to attract sufficient transfers, so I'm not really surprised that they almost all broke in favour of Labour here. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2013 19:00:09 GMT
I'll comment more on the Edinburgh by-election later, but one thing that really stuck me at the count was the number of people voting Labour 1 and SNP 2 or vice versa. If you add both variations together and take them as essentially a vote for both parties, then I'd say that it was probably the most common option.
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Post by AdminSTB on Jun 22, 2013 22:57:22 GMT
I don't think it's that surprising since Labour and the SNP probably had by far the largest campaigns, so voters are going to probably see them as the big two to vote for.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 28, 2013 16:05:50 GMT
Have the transfers for the Fife seat been released yet?
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Post by marksenior on Jun 28, 2013 17:44:19 GMT
Have the transfers for the Fife seat been released yet? Yes . |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 29, 2013 9:38:53 GMT
Have the transfers for the Fife seat been released yet? Yes . where are they? |
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Post by marksenior on Jun 29, 2013 10:08:35 GMT
On the website fifedirect.org.uk June by election 2013 , election results for june byelection
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 29, 2013 10:14:24 GMT
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Post by marksenior on Jun 29, 2013 10:23:08 GMT
Hi Andrea , I found it by going
A to Z
E
Election Results
June By election 2013
Election results for June by election 2013
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Post by AdminSTB on Jun 29, 2013 10:43:07 GMT
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jun 29, 2013 10:50:59 GMT
Thanks to both of you.
I got lost because they had a Local Government By-Election 20 June 2013 section and a Election results for June by election 2013 section. The former with just first preferences results and the second with all transfers!
Transfers
LD:
31 to Lab, 15 to Con, 13 to SNP, 8 to UKIP. 16 Non Transferables
UKIP eliminated:
48 to Con, 39 to Lab, 37 to SNP. 60 Non Transferables
Con eliminated:
129 to Lab, 53 to SNP. 153 Non Transferables
First prefes among postal votes
Lab 590
SNP 462
Con 114
UKIP 70
LD 40
Voting on the day
Lab 1306
SNP 1249
Con 158
UKIP 106
LD 43
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