Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2013 12:18:45 GMT
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 19, 2013 13:10:14 GMT
Indeed. I do think they could get 3rd in Fife though... |
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Post by lancastrian on Jun 19, 2013 16:06:45 GMT
They could get third in Fife only because of how derisory the Tory and Lib Dem votes will be, Edinburgh- well, can they beat the Pirate?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2013 19:12:46 GMT
Some information on the Weaste & Seedley candidates: Mary Ferrer (Green) is the former LD Councillor for the next-door Claremont ward. She lost her seat in 2010, failed to regain it in 2011, and stood as a LD in Weaste & Seedley in 2012. Her proposer is John Deas, a former LD Councillor for this ward. Adam Kennaugh (Conservative) is the only candidate who lives in the ward. One of the independents is a couple of streets out. UKIP, Labour and TUSC candidates come from particularly far away. Wilson (Labour) is the son of one of the current ward Councillors. He lives in Swinton. Interesting that both the Green candidate and their proposer were extremely recent Lib Dem councillors. Are they nakedly acting as entryists? Probably not, no. |
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Post by lancastrian on Jun 19, 2013 19:16:58 GMT
Do we still have all nine candidates in Salford?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2013 19:29:38 GMT
Do we still have all nine candidates in Salford? Yes. |
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Post by linders on Jun 19, 2013 20:30:51 GMT
Candidates have been warned about leaking information from the postal vote opening for Weaste & Seedley after a breach was noticed by the Electoral Commission. Curious.
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Jun 19, 2013 20:48:52 GMT
Candidates have been warned about leaking information from the postal vote opening for Weaste & Seedley after a breach was noticed by the Electoral Commission. Curious. Where did you get that from? Nothing on their website or on any news website I could find. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 19, 2013 21:39:41 GMT
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Post by linders on Jun 19, 2013 22:08:36 GMT
Candidates have been warned about leaking information from the postal vote opening for Weaste & Seedley after a breach was noticed by the Electoral Commission. Curious. Where did you get that from? Nothing on their website or on any news website I could find. Candidates have been e-mailed to remind them of the law. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2013 22:44:06 GMT
I think it's fair to say that we have run a much bigger campaign than either the LibDems or UKIP, and possibly the Tories as well. How much impact this will actually have of course remains to be seen. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2013 23:04:20 GMT
I think it's fair to say that we have run a much bigger campaign than either the LibDems or UKIP, and possibly the Tories as well. How much impact this will actually have of course remains to be seen. What would you consider a good result? ~5% last time wasn't it.. but with no campaign? |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2013 23:29:14 GMT
What would you consider a good result? ~5% last time wasn't it.. but with no campaign? I'd be very disappointed with less than 10% given the effort we've put into it, and I'm hoping for more than that. Though in all honesty, I feel that the main outcome of our campaign will be that we get tons of Labour and SNP second preferences. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 19, 2013 23:37:15 GMT
Based on the full preference information from the 2012 elections, and assuming the final two candidates are Labour and SNP, here is how the other parties votes could be transferred in the two Scottish contests.
EDINBURGH
Con - 1111 votes - 236 (21.2%) Lab, 151 (13.6%) SNP, 724 (65.2%) none
Grn - 469 votes - 166 (35.4%) Lab, 149 (31.8%) SNP, 154 (32.8%) none
LD - 687 votes - 241 (35.1%) Lab, 172 (25.0%) SNP, 274 (39.9%) none
SSP - 228 votes - 84 (36.8%) SNP, 72 (31.6%) Lab, 72 (31.6%) none
FIFE
Con - 153 votes - 42 (27.5%) SNP, 36 (23.5%) Lab, 75 (49.0%) none
LD - 57 votes - 23 (40.4%) Lab, 17 (29.8%) SNP, 17 (29.8%) none
Pens - 201 votes - 91 (45.3%) Lab, 58 (28.9%) SNP, 52 (25.9%) none
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2013 23:37:21 GMT
What would you consider a good result? ~5% last time wasn't it.. but with no campaign? I'd be very disappointed with less than 10% given the effort we've put into it, and I'm hoping for more than that. Though in all honesty, I feel that the main outcome of our campaign will be that we get tons of Labour and SNP second preferences. Thanks, well we'll see! I've not heard anything from any SNP folk about the by-election, seems rather well mannered.. nothing is really at stake for either Labour or the SNP though. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2013 23:50:57 GMT
Labour did have five MSPs campaigning in the ward a couple of weeks ago.
To put things into perspective, I've personally put rather more into this than I ever did in St Andrews, and unlike there, we've actually had large numbers of people knocking on doors and delivering leaflets for several weeks. Different demographics, sure, but if the predictions on the prediction competition thread so far turn out to be correct then we are going to have some very serious rethinking to do.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 20, 2013 8:27:51 GMT
I work in the heart of Liberton Gilmerton travelling round it quite a bit - up until today I'd seen the council notices about the by-election on the lamp-posts (almost did a double take at first glance as they're in UKIP colours) and 1 guy in a red rosette knocking doors and a Green leaflet coming through the door whilst I was doing a home visit.
The reception for my office is actually a polling station, this morning there are boards for Labour, SNP, Con, LD and Green and one person in a red rosette.
Not having been involved in the campaign except for financially I have nothing else in particular to offer, but I'd be very disappointed if the Green vote didn't increase after an active campaign if we can get 5% by doing nothing. I'd also have thought that the absence of Colin Fox might give us a few extra votes. Not sure we'll catch the Conservatives though...
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 20, 2013 11:41:49 GMT
Lunchtime update - council leader Andrew Burns outside in a red rosette - no sign of anyone else.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2013 22:01:18 GMT
Just got back from standing outside polling stations for most of the afternoon/evening. Labour have had large numbers of people at some polling stations and none at others. They also had a man driving around on a mobility scooter with a big Labour placard, a loudspeaker car, and a man who felt the need to shout repeatedly about how Hitler was a nationalist to representatives from other parties. SNP quieter but more balanced across the polling stations. Tories and LibDems have been about, but seem to know their geographical bases of support and are going for it. We've had a presence at most stations throughout the day.
No sign of anybody from UKIP. They didn't even have boards outside the polling stations.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2013 22:21:51 GMT
Estimated 30% turnout in Fife according to Labour tweet
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