Interesting electoral facts

[The Bishop]

And anyway, it is far from actually meaningless. Not to mention that past performance is, as ever, no guarantee of the future. It is far from impossible that an election that saw a massive turnover of seats is followed by one that sees a much smaller change (see 1997 and then 2001)

[johnloony]

Aug 4, 2024 22:37:13 GMT swingometer said:

Jul 10, 2024 11:13:30 GMT johnloony said:

Just because she’s old and ill doesn’t mean she’s very old or exceptionally ill. Experience over the last four decades shows that by-elections are caused by the deaths of MPs in their 40s 50s and 60s just as much as those in their 70s or 80s.

Well that makes sense because you’d have thought most would’ve retired by their seventies or eighties, look at this parliament in particular

I have checked the by-elections of the modern era, i.e. since I started following parliamentary by-elections (i.e. since the beginning of 1983).

86 parliamentary by-elections were caused by the death of the MP. For these purposes, I have included the death of Marsha Singh (Bradford West, 2012) because his death (four momths after he resigned due to ill-health) would have resulted in a by-election “anyway”, even if he hadn’t resigned. I have not included the deaths of MPs whose seats were vacant at the time of dissolution and whose deaths did not cause by-elections, because I am not certain that I have got a full definitive list of all of those in the time period covered. Of those 86 deaths,

The average age of death was 60.
2 were aged 80 something
15 were 70 something
28 were 60 something
28 were 50 something
12 were 40 something
1 was in his 30s.

10 of the 86 deaths were caused by non-natural causes (murder, accident, suicide). The average age of death of those ten was 52; if you exclude those as outliers from the statistics, then the average age of death of the remaining 76 was 61.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Aug 4, 2024 23:37:09 GMT michaelarden said:

Jul 31, 2024 20:44:29 GMT nyx said:

Constituencies won by a margin of more than 10%, by general election:
("Lib" includes SDP-Liberal Alliance in 1983/87 and Lib Dem since)

Year	Con	Lab	Lib
Feb 1974	210	226	9
Oct 1974	165	249	4
1979	263	206	6
1983	320	146	11
1987	301	173	10
1992	244	210	9
1997	100	354	25
2001	123	355	33
2005	153	267	32
2010	224	179	30
2015	274	173	1
2017	250	208	4
2019	296	155	7
2024	44	307	51

While interesting it's pretty meaningless. We're in an electoral era where there aren't really any safe seats and general election and by-election swings are basically the same. A 10% majority is nothing.

I'm not sure this is meaningless. There's a clear difference between 1997 and 2024, for example, despite somewhat similar levels of national support, which illustrates the relative efficiency of different party votes quite neatly.

[Sibboleth]

Lower vote shares in general (ignoring the polarized post-Brexit elections!) mean that e.g. a 10pt majority is functionally 'larger' than previously. It's just that there is now remarkably little relationship between the size of a percentage majority in one election and how safe the same constituency actually is at the next one, but that's a different matter.

[iang]

Manuela Perteghella is NOT the first MP for Stratford to be of Italian heritage

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 7, 2024 16:00:39 GMT iang said:

Manuela Perteghella is NOT the first MP for Stratford to be of Italian heritage

Let's hope she is the first MP for Stratford of Italian heritage whose career doesn't end in scandal

[iang]

Well, indeed

[finsobruce]

Aug 7, 2024 16:07:42 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Aug 7, 2024 16:00:39 GMT iang said:

Manuela Perteghella is NOT the first MP for Stratford to be of Italian heritage

Let's hope she is the first MP for Stratford of Italian heritage whose career doesn't end in scandal

Well you would say that wouldn't you?

[batman]

Including the current Scottish Secretary, 4 of Scotland's MPs now have the surname Murray, 3 Labour, 1 Lib Dem. Although Murray is not in any way an uncommon surname in Scotland, this is an unusually high proportion. Only one is now called McDonald, however spelt, and none is called Smith, which is the commonest surname in Scotland as well as England.

[finsobruce]

Aug 10, 2024 15:58:50 GMT batman said:

Including the current Scottish Secretary, 4 of Scotland's MPs now have the surname Murray, 3 Labour, 1 Lib Dem. Although Murray is not in any way an uncommon surname in Scotland, this is an unusually high proportion. Only one is now called McDonald, however spelt, and none is called Smith, which is the commonest surname in Scotland as well as England.

Does that make one of them the Murray Fourth?

[batman]

I believe that I have now successfully memorised all 650 MPs, their constituencies & current party affiliation (with several Labour MPs currently suspended from the Party Whip). It has taken me over 5 weeks, the longest ever, but then firstly my brain isn't as youthful as it used to be, and secondly it's the highest turnover of MPs in my lifetime. You use all sorts of mnemonic devices to do this, e.g. there are people with the same names as former MPs (e.g. David Taylor), there are those who are namesakes or near-namesakes of other famous people (e.g. Richard Baker, Brian Mathew), there's even a cocktail in there (Tom Collins), but some have very unmemorable names which have taken a while to learn. One new Scottish Labour MP happens to have the same name as a once regular customer, which has helped, though there is zero physical resemblance. Since I'm unable to work for some time because of my broken bone it's been a useful (hmm, not totally sure about that) diversion. Of course some were already well-known before entering parliament, and those have been easy, as are the ones I'd previously met (e.g. Rachel Blake, Danny Beales). One or two of the MPs who have changed constituencies have been a little harder to nail down than expected, but I'm there now. The retreads have all been easy too.

[Deleted]

Aug 10, 2024 20:28:11 GMT batman said:

I believe that I have now successfully memorised all 650 MPs, their constituencies & current party affiliation (with several Labour MPs currently suspended from the Party Whip). It has taken me over 5 weeks, the longest ever, but then firstly my brain isn't as youthful as it used to be, and secondly it's the highest turnover of MPs in my lifetime. You use all sorts of mnemonic devices to do this, e.g. there are people with the same names as former MPs (e.g. David Taylor), there are those who are namesakes or near-namesakes of other famous people (e.g. Richard Baker, Brian Mathew), there's even a cocktail in there (Tom Collins), but some have very unmemorable names which have taken a while to learn. One new Scottish Labour MP happens to have the same name as a once regular customer, which has helped, though there is zero physical resemblance. Since I'm unable to work for some time because of my broken bone it's been a useful (hmm, not totally sure about that) diversion. Of course some were already well-known before entering parliament, and those have been easy, as are the ones I'd previously met (e.g. Rachel Blake, Danny Beales). One or two of the MPs who have changed constituencies have been a little harder to nail down than expected, but I'm there now. The retreads have all been easy too.

Lol. Lots of free time there?

[johnloony]

Aug 10, 2024 20:28:11 GMT batman said:

I believe that I have now successfully memorised all 650 MPs, their constituencies & current party affiliation (with several Labour MPs currently suspended from the Party Whip). It has taken me over 5 weeks, the longest ever, but then firstly my brain isn't as youthful as it used to be, and secondly it's the highest turnover of MPs in my lifetime. You use all sorts of mnemonic devices to do this, e.g. there are people with the same names as former MPs (e.g. David Taylor), there are those who are namesakes or near-namesakes of other famous people (e.g. Richard Baker, Brian Mathew), there's even a cocktail in there (Tom Collins), but some have very unmemorable names which have taken a while to learn. One new Scottish Labour MP happens to have the same name as a once regular customer, which has helped, though there is zero physical resemblance. Since I'm unable to work for some time because of my broken bone it's been a useful (hmm, not totally sure about that) diversion. Of course some were already well-known before entering parliament, and those have been easy, as are the ones I'd previously met (e.g. Rachel Blake, Danny Beales). One or two of the MPs who have changed constituencies have been a little harder to nail down than expected, but I'm there now. The retreads have all been easy too.

I think it’s the largest number of new MPs since the 17th century.

[batman]

I keep forgetting the surname of Leigh Ingham (Stafford, Lab), who for clarity is female, then remembering it again. Indeed, I did it again just now. She is the last one to be committed to memory. I have had slight trouble with the surname of Manuela Berteghella (Stratford-on-Avon, LD) but seems to be OK now.

I never remember whether Corri Wilson (former SNP MP for Ayr Carrick & Cumnock) is male or female, but that doesn't matter now. The new member is Elaine Stewart (Lab). That's fairly easy to remember since many years ago I once had a girlfriend called Elaine. Her sister later became famous.

[cathyc]

Aug 11, 2024 11:29:01 GMT batman said:

I keep forgetting the surname of Leigh Ingham (Stafford, Lab), who for clarity is female, then remembering it again. Indeed, I did it again just now. She is the last one to be committed to memory. I have had slight trouble with the surname of Manuela Berteghella (Stratford-on-Avon, LD) but seems to be OK now.

I never remember whether Corri Wilson (former SNP MP for Ayr Carrick & Cumnock) is male or female, but that doesn't matter now. The new member is Elaine Stewart (Lab). That's fairly easy to remember since many years ago I once had a girlfriend called Elaine. Her sister later became famous.

On the House of Commons Library spreadsheets for each General Election there is a Male/Female column.

[nyx]

Aug 11, 2024 11:29:01 GMT batman said:

 I have had slight trouble with the surname of Manuela Berteghella (Stratford-on-Avon, LD) but seems to be OK now.

Her surname is, in fact, Perteghella.

[Deleted]

The Republican ticket has only Ivy League graduates: Trump (University of Pennsylvania Master of Business Administration) and Vance (Yale University Juris Doctor).

[batman]

Aug 11, 2024 11:52:46 GMT nyx said:

Aug 11, 2024 11:29:01 GMT batman said:

 I have had slight trouble with the surname of Manuela Berteghella (Stratford-on-Avon, LD) but seems to be OK now.

Her surname is, in fact, Perteghella.

Told you. So, I'm one letter out, at least.

[batman]

Anyone know what the following MPs  have in common : Chris Ward (Brighton, Kempton & Peacehaven, Lab), Mike Martin (Tunbridge Wells, LD), David Reed (Exmouth & E Exeter, C) ?

[johnloony]

Aug 11, 2024 11:31:32 GMT cathyc said:

Aug 11, 2024 11:29:01 GMT batman said:

I keep forgetting the surname of Leigh Ingham (Stafford, Lab), who for clarity is female, then remembering it again. Indeed, I did it again just now. She is the last one to be committed to memory. I have had slight trouble with the surname of Manuela Berteghella (Stratford-on-Avon, LD) but seems to be OK now.

I never remember whether Corri Wilson (former SNP MP for Ayr Carrick & Cumnock) is male or female, but that doesn't matter now. The new member is Elaine Stewart (Lab). That's fairly easy to remember since many years ago I once had a girlfriend called Elaine. Her sister later became famous.

On the House of Commons Library spreadsheets for each General Election there is a Male/Female column.

That doesn’t mean it’s easy to remember them all.