Interesting electoral facts

[The Bishop]

Jul 28, 2024 12:32:57 GMT spqr said:

Jul 28, 2024 8:59:37 GMT The Bishop said:

"Comforting" doesn't come into it - we ARE a European country and have been for over two millennia, and ideological Brexiteer fantasies of us becoming another US state are massively alienating to the vast majority of us even without the likes of Trump running things - and no I am not "presuming" anything. Brexit sympathisers like to claim the EU is inevitably going to collapse, as they have consistently done since the 1970s if not earlier - its arguably starting to look rather like the classical Marxists "inevitable collapse of capitalism" at this point. And who says the "federalists" will continue to dictate things? Its surely just as possible we get the evolution of the much talked about "multi-speed" institution, which would of course make it easier for the UK to (re)join.

The "comforting" aspect I speak of comes not from any notion of being European (as it happens, I agree: we are European, but as that is not something determined by EU membership I don't see it as having much relevance), but your complacent belief that all you have to do is sit and wait long enough until you get your way

Seriously, the only bit of my post that can remotely be described as thus was a fairly mild reference to demographics. I totally agree that on their own they do not equate to destiny (I am old enough to recall their supposedly meaning "Labour can never win again" in the UK, and both a permanent Republican majority and later a permanent Democratic majority in the US) It was simply a statement that *other things being equal* Brexiteers were going to have to run to stand still - are you seriously contesting that the *core* constituency for leaving in the 2016 referendum was boomers?

This does not make anything "inevitable", far from it. But it is still a factor that cannot be ignored.

[aargauer]

Jul 27, 2024 10:39:53 GMT The Bishop said:

They have no intention of seeking to rejoin in this parliament or even the next one, that is totally correct.

And it is also only a relatively small part of the overall story.

In its first few weeks this government has already placed itself closer to some European institutions, a process that will steadily continue.

I always thought Brexit was ultimately doomed by the fact we ARE a European country, for all the Brexitist fantasies of somehow towing us out into the mid-Atlantic. We might - might - not rejoin the EU in my lifetime or yours, but we will in the lifespan of several posters on here. And also, demographics is on their side.

I doubt it as one of the younger posters (although nearer 40 than 30 now). We will end up as Switzerland or at most Norway.

So much of the noise is about either passport queues (irrelevant for all but weekly or more frequent fliers, and in case being sorted out in the next 12 months), and FoM. 

I can't see the desire to go closer than EEA.

[The Bishop]

And you could quite possibly be correct.

But that would still mean the "Global Britain" dream of some Brexiteers would remain just that.

[aargauer]

Jul 29, 2024 11:30:41 GMT The Bishop said:

And you could quite possibly be correct.

But that would still mean the "Global Britain" dream of some Brexiteers would remain just that.

A lot of people who voted for brexit, really didn't understand what they were voting for. 

The only logical thing to do was to get much closer to the US and basically accept their terms instead of EU ones. Of course, that was rejected too.

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

The last couple of pages have had the terms brexit supporters and brexiteers used and generally in a derogatory sense.

I'm not sure who these people referred to actually are, due to the inconsistency of thr use of the terms.

Do they refer to

1. all people who voted for brexit,
2. to people who voted for brexit and think its a fuck up and regret it,
3. to those who voted for brexit and think its a fuck up but think better out than in,
4. to those who wanted to be a separate nation outside the EU as we've been historically,
5. US psychophants who want to be a US state.
6. Some of the above
7. All of the above.
8. None of the above.
9. Its just a term of abuse
10. As a throw away term.
11. Something else.

?? ?? ?? ??

Colour me confused.

[nyx]

Constituencies won by a margin of more than 10%, by general election:
("Lib" includes SDP-Liberal Alliance in 1983/87 and Lib Dem since)

Year	Con	Lab	Lib
Feb 1974	210	226	9
Oct 1974	165	249	4
1979	263	206	6
1983	320	146	11
1987	301	173	10
1992	244	210	9
1997	100	354	25
2001	123	355	33
2005	153	267	32
2010	224	179	30
2015	274	173	1
2017	250	208	4
2019	296	155	7
2024	44	307	51

[Deleted]

Jul 31, 2024 20:44:29 GMT nyx said:

Constituencies won by a margin of more than 10%, by general election:
("Lib" includes SDP-Liberal Alliance in 1983/87 and Lib Dem since)

Year	Con	Lab	Lib
Feb 1974	210	226	9
Oct 1974	165	249	4
1979	263	206	6
1983	320	146	11
1987	301	173	10
1992	244	210	9
1997	100	354	25
2001	123	355	33
2005	153	267	32
2010	224	179	30
2015	274	173	1
2017	250	208	4
2019	296	155	7
2024	44	307	51

The Lib Dem performance. Fucking hell.

[The Bishop]

LibDems ahead of the Tories

The striking improvement of the Tory position on this measure in 2015 - despite, as with Labour this year, only slightly increasing their overall share - is also very notable.

[Pete Whitehead]

Aug 1, 2024 11:30:57 GMT The Bishop said:

LibDems ahead of the Tories

The striking improvement of the Tory position on this measure in 2015 - despite, as with Labour this year, only slightly increasing their overall share - is also very notable.

That is presumably mainly accounted for by seats where the Lib Dems were within 10% of them in 2010 and then collapsed in 2015

[spqr]

Jul 29, 2024 10:11:57 GMT The Bishop said:

Jul 28, 2024 12:32:57 GMT spqr said:

The "comforting" aspect I speak of comes not from any notion of being European (as it happens, I agree: we are European, but as that is not something determined by EU membership I don't see it as having much relevance), but your complacent belief that all you have to do is sit and wait long enough until you get your way

Seriously, the only bit of my post that can remotely be described as thus was a fairly mild reference to demographics. I totally agree that on their own they do not equate to destiny... it was simply a statement that *other things being equal* Brexiteers were going to have to run to stand still - are you seriously contesting that the *core* constituency for leaving in the 2016 referendum was boomers?

This does not make anything "inevitable", far from it. But it is still a factor that cannot be ignored.

Well, your original contention was that Brexit is "ultimately doomed by the fact we ARE a European country". Arguing that something is "doomed" - i.e., that its fate is sealed - suggests an expectation of inevitability. If you genuinely believed this, the most logical course of action would be for you to wait for the doom to emerge, as there would surely be no need for you to do anything else. I disagree with this viewpoint, hence my reference to complacency.

But it now seems this is not what you think at all; and, if so, then that's fine and dandy. And you're right to suggest that Brexiteers have a battle on their hands to maintain the status quo, of course - but perhaps not so cognisant of the fact that Remainers also have their own uphill struggle to face, in that every time a British government decides not to replicate either existing or future EU legislation (such as, for example, the decision to exempt imported Chinese EVs from tariffs, as announced last month) it takes divergence a step further and makes rejoining that little bit harder.

[nyx]

Jul 18, 2024 14:46:34 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

The Conservatives lost every seat in Cornwall at the general election. However, they were only a whisker away from being the largest party in terms of aggregated votes:

Labour 77517
Con 76817
LD 73691
Reform 48574
Green 13778
Others and indies 3851

In the eight constituencies solely in Berkshire (excluding the cross-border Windsor also containing parts of Surrey), the election result was:

Conservative 114,288 votes (30.2%), 0 seats
Labour 98,588 votes (26.1%), 5 seats
Lib Dem 89,319 votes (23.6%), 3 seats
Reform 31,692 votes (8.4%), 0 seats
Green 23,706 votes (6.3%), 0 seats
Other 20,536 votes (5.4%), 0 seats

[The Bishop]

But the Windsor seat is still mostly in Berkshire, so should arguably count here - and it voted Tory quite comfortably.

[Deleted]

Aug 3, 2024 11:48:42 GMT The Bishop said:

But the Windsor seat is still mostly in Berkshire, so should arguably count here - and it voted Tory quite comfortably.

Yes. An interesting counter factual is what if we had a by-election there in the last Parliament.

[nyx]

Constituencies where the Conservatives dropped from winning in 2019 to third place in 2024:

Bangor Aberconwy (1. Labour, 2. Plaid)
Caerfyrddin (1. Plaid, 2. Labour)
Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr; Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice; Leigh and Atherton; Thurrock; Wakefield and Rothwell; Whitehaven and Workington; Blackpool South; Amber Valley (1. Labour, 2. Reform)
Great Yarmouth; South Basildon and East Thurrock (1. Reform, 2. Labour)
Burnley (1. Labour, 2. Lib Dem)
Hazel Grove (1. Lib Dem, 2. Labour)
Honorable mention to Hartlepool (Labour in 2019, Conservative in 2021 by-election; Conservatives third behind Labour and Reform in 2024)

Constituency where the Conservatives dropped from winning in 2019 to fourth place in 2024 (!):
Walsall and Bloxwich (1. Labour, 2. Gaza independent, 3. Reform)

[Deleted]

Labour vote share: Hampstead & Highgate: 48.3%; Holborn & St Pancras 48.9%

Labour got about 4,000 more votes in the first seat than the second. Starmer polled just shy of 19,000 votes in H&SP,

I did not expect the seats' Labour votes to converge that much, though I played my part in the latter constituency, of course  

[johnloony]

Aug 4, 2024 17:22:00 GMT nyx said:

Constituency where the Conservatives dropped from winning in 2019 to fourth place in 2024 (!):
Walsall and Bloxwich (1. Labour, 2. Gaza independent, 3. Reform)

Ashfield hefyd?

[YL]

Aug 4, 2024 17:22:00 GMT nyx said:

Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr; Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice; Leigh and Atherton; Thurrock; Wakefield and Rothwell; Whitehaven and Workington; Blackpool South; Amber Valley (1. Labour, 2. Reform)

Spen Valley is another.

[Deleted]

Despite being a super safe Democratic state, Joe Biden's home state of Delaware only elected their Democratic State Treasurer by 7% in 2022. The Republicans won the statewide office in 2022, under Ken Simpler, if I recall correctly. The last time the state sent a Republican to Congress was Mike Castle in 2008.

[michaelarden]

Jul 31, 2024 20:44:29 GMT nyx said:

Constituencies won by a margin of more than 10%, by general election:
("Lib" includes SDP-Liberal Alliance in 1983/87 and Lib Dem since)

Year	Con	Lab	Lib
Feb 1974	210	226	9
Oct 1974	165	249	4
1979	263	206	6
1983	320	146	11
1987	301	173	10
1992	244	210	9
1997	100	354	25
2001	123	355	33
2005	153	267	32
2010	224	179	30
2015	274	173	1
2017	250	208	4
2019	296	155	7
2024	44	307	51

While interesting it's pretty meaningless. We're in an electoral era where there aren't really any safe seats and general election and by-election swings are basically the same. A 10% majority is nothing.

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

We're a forum which thrives on 'interesting but meaningless'