nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 22, 2024 21:29:27 GMT
Also Berwickshire, Dumfriesshire, Kincardineshire, Kirkcudbrightshire, Peeblesshire, Roxburghshire, Selkirkshire, and Wigtownshire.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 23, 2024 22:33:10 GMT
1997:
There were 659 seats in this election after boundary change.
Actual GB shares Lab 44.4%, Con 31.4%,Lib Dem 17.2%,Oth 7.0%. UK seats Lab 419, Con 165,Lib Dem 46,SNP 6,Plaid Cymru 4,Northern Ireland 18,1 Independent-Lab overall majority of 179.
BBC:
They another exit poll from NOP. They had an analysis poll of 2 pages of questions on the election of sample size of 2356 voters. There was also a 2 question prediction poll but the difference from 1992 was that is was also national but with a marginals booster.
The exit poll was designed so the BBC could be more responsive to patterns emerging between different types of seats-they speculated that even though the poll might be biased to Lab the bias would be constant so for instance it might accurately forecast the differences in swings between different types of seats even if the absolute swings were incorrect. They also reduced the number of 'special seats'-seats which weren't forecast by the exit poll such as ones that had changed hands in by elections.
The exit poll sample size was 17073 voters and it consisted of polling at 2 locations in each of 140 randomly selected seats in Great Britain supplemented by a booster sample of 80 Con/Lab marginals where the Con lead in the notional 1992 results was between -4% and 16%.
The BBC though they made a seat forecast decided not to broadcast it but did use it to inform the presentation team and other staff on the election night programme. Instead they aimed to get a national share of the vote and use the swingometer to show rough seat forecasts.
The forecast GB share was Lab 47%,Con 29%,Lib Dem 18%,Oth 6%(Nick Moon of NOP's book on polling had the Lib Dem share as 17% and indicated the broadcast figure was adjusted from Lab 49%,Con 27%)(average error 1.7%). The unbroadcast UK seat forecast was for a Lab overall majority of 209-Lab 434,Con 155,Lib Dem 43,SNP 5,Plaid Cymru 4,Northern Ireland 18
ITN:
Their exit poll was now conducted by MORI and confined to marginal seats only to produce a seat forecast only(though they applied the changes in the marginals to the 1992 shares to get a national GB share forecast-see below). It was conducted at 1 polling station in 100 Con marginals where the notional 1992 Con lead was up to 20%. MORI used their 'swingo model' to produce a seat forecast. The link below shows the changes in the party shares at various data cut off points through polling day. The 10pm forecast was based on 14888 voters interviewed up to 9.15pm but the final sample was 15761.
www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/1997-itnmori-general-election-exit-poll
The broadcast ITN seat forecast was for a Lab overall majority of 159-Lab 409, Con 177, Lib Dem 45, Oth 28-this was a slightly adjusted version of MORI's own calculation which was Lab 410,Con 180, Lib Dem 43 for the 3 main parties(incidentally the seat projections for the various data cut off points throughout the day are given in Explaining Labour's Landslide by Sir Robert Worcester and Professor roger Mortimore).
ITN GB share projection:Lab 46%,Con 30%,Lib Dem 18%,Oth 6%(average error 1.2%)
Sky News:
As in 1992 it looks like they focused on a results based forecast only(as in 1992) but according to the Nuffield study of the 1997 election they split the difference between the BBC and ITN polls and forecast a 175 seat Labour majority-however I can't verify this unless we get the coverage put on YouTube!
With the 1997 Sky coverage having turned up i'll be posting at some point their revised predictions based on the results but at 10.28pm approx the video shows a forecast based on the other 2 exit polls and last opinion polls of Lab 422 Con 173 Lib Dem 35 Others 29-Lab maj of 185 not 175 as per the Nuffield study. At the top of the programme a phone in self selecting poll of 35000+ voters lab 60%,Con 25%,Lib Dem 11%,Others 4%(later changed to 58/26/11/5) |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Sept 2, 2024 3:04:10 GMT
List of seats which came closest to being won or lost by Sinn Fein in the general election, by raw vote margin followed by percentage margin:
1) East Londonderry (SF 179 votes behind DUP; 0.5% margin)
2) North Antrim (SF 3,928 votes behind TUV; 9.5% margin)
3) Foyle (SF 4,166 votes behind SDLP; 10.9% margin)
4) Fermanagh and South Tyrone (SF 4,571 votes ahead of UUP; 8.9% margin)
5) Belfast North (SF 5,612 votes ahead of DUP; 13.9% margin)
6) Upper Bann (SF 7,406 votes behind DUP; 15.6% margin)
I hadn't noticed until now that they came significantly closer to winning North Antrim than to losing Belfast North!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2024 13:29:47 GMT
Also Berwickshire, Dumfriesshire, Kincardineshire, Kirkcudbrightshire, Peeblesshire, Roxburghshire, Selkirkshire, and Wigtownshire. Huntingdonshire has probably already been mentioned. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Sept 2, 2024 14:12:39 GMT
Also Berwickshire, Dumfriesshire, Kincardineshire, Kirkcudbrightshire, Peeblesshire, Roxburghshire, Selkirkshire, and Wigtownshire. Huntingdonshire has probably already been mentioned. I considered mentioning it. Historic Huntingdonshire covers the entirety of Huntingdon (Conservative), most of North West Cambridgeshire (Labour), and around a third of St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire (Lib Dem). Whether that counts as a Conservative majority is arguable. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 2, 2024 16:39:53 GMT
A clear majority of the electorate of Huntingdonshire does not live in a Conservative seat. 75,590 in Huntingdon itself against c. 63,000 in NW Cambs and c. 24,000 in St Neots etc
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Sept 2, 2024 17:30:46 GMT
Hmm... if one looks at the historic boundaries of Huntingdonshire, Swineford is in North Bedfordshire constituency, and Thurning is in Corby and East Northamptonshire.
If Wikishire is correct then a field just north of the Forty Foot Drain around 52.47431, -0.03658 is in historic Huntingdonshire but part of North East Cambridgeshire constituency. It would also appear that a small area of Thorpe Wood Golf Course, in Peterborough constituency, around 52.56077, -0.29146, is also historically in Huntingdonshire thanks to changes in the course of the river Nene.
So, not that it matters but I think this means that there are technically seven constituencies in Huntingdonshire.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2024 18:56:27 GMT
2024 is the first time ever (so far as I can make out) that a majority of the original Eleanor Crosses are (or would be if they still existed) in Labour seats.
Lincoln (Lincoln)
Geddington (Corby)
Hardingstone (Northampton South)
Stony Stratford (MK North)
Dunstable (SW Beds)
Cheapside (2 cities)
Charing Cross (2 Cities)
St Albans is obviously a LD seat and the remaining 4 are Tory.
May not qualify for this thread, but it was interesting to me
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2024 19:45:25 GMT
A clear majority of the electorate of Huntingdonshire does not live in a Conservative seat. 75,590 in Huntingdon itself against c. 63,000 in NW Cambs and c. 24,000 in St Neots etc How does the answer change if we base the question on geography? Which counties did the Tories in terms of land area? Aberdeenshire still Tory on that basis? |
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john07
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Post by john07 on Sept 2, 2024 21:34:35 GMT
A clear majority of the electorate of Huntingdonshire does not live in a Conservative seat. 75,590 in Huntingdon itself against c. 63,000 in NW Cambs and c. 24,000 in St Neots etc How does the answer change if we base the question on geography? Which counties did the Tories in terms of land area? Aberdeenshire still Tory on that basis? Can you provide a translation for those of us unable to read gobbledegook? |
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Post by johnloony on Sept 2, 2024 23:18:14 GMT
How does the answer change if we base the question on geography? Which counties did the Tories in terms of land area? Aberdeenshire still Tory on that basis? Can you provide a translation for those of us unable to read gobbledegook? ”Which counties have a plurality of their land area being represented by Conservative MPs, regardless of population?” (I think @sanders missed out the word “win” after “Tories”) |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2024 4:26:28 GMT
How does the answer change if we base the question on geography? Which counties did the Tories in terms of land area? Aberdeenshire still Tory on that basis? Can you provide a translation for those of us unable to read gobbledegook? Where does the blue team hold the most land? |
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Post by batman on Sept 3, 2024 9:43:52 GMT
There are still some ceremonial counties where there remains a majority of Conservative MPs. These are Worcestershire, Essex, Leicestershire, Rutland, Lincolnshire, and in Scotland Scottish Borders, and Dumfries & Galloway. In 1997 the Conservatives still managed to win every seat in both Dorset & Surrey; today, they do not have a majority in either county, and have only 2 seats out of the 8 in Dorset. In terms of territory there will I'm sure be some others where the Tories still have a majority irrespective of numbers of MPs elected.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2024 10:07:35 GMT
In terms of territory there will I'm sure be some others where the Tories still have a majority irrespective of numbers of MPs elected. Aberdeenshire, Berwickshire, Dumfriesshire, Galloway, Lincolnshire, Kirkcudbrightshire, Kincardineshire, Roxburghshire, Selkirkshire, Staffordshire, Wigtownshire? |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 3, 2024 10:15:35 GMT
In terms of territory there will I'm sure be some others where the Tories still have a majority irrespective of numbers of MPs elected. Aberdeenshire, Berwickshire, Dumfriesshire, Galloway, Lincolnshire, Kirkcudbrightshire, Kincardineshire, Roxburghshire, Selkirkshire, Staffordshire, Wigtownshire? There are some others that I think they did on that measure- Hampshire, Kent, Shropshire. Devon is close I suspect. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2024 10:16:53 GMT
Aberdeenshire, Berwickshire, Dumfriesshire, Galloway, Lincolnshire, Kirkcudbrightshire, Kincardineshire, Roxburghshire, Selkirkshire, Staffordshire, Wigtownshire? There are some others that I think they did on that measure- Hampshire, Kent, Shropshire. Devon is close I suspect. Isle of Wight separated in 1890? |
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Post by johnloony on Sept 3, 2024 10:37:37 GMT
In terms of territory there will I'm sure be some others where the Tories still have a majority irrespective of numbers of MPs elected. Aberdeenshire, Berwickshire, Dumfriesshire, Galloway, Lincolnshire, Kirkcudbrightshire, Kincardineshire, Roxburghshire, Selkirkshire, Staffordshire, Wigtownshire? I think not Staffordshire |
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Post by hullenedge on Sept 13, 2024 15:30:33 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2024 17:12:13 GMT
Labour needed that too, didn’t they? So the boundaries are basically fair. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2024 6:28:43 GMT
SFL makes an excellent point here. US Greens are a useless party. We both use FPTP for elections...
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