|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 16, 2021 9:13:57 GMT
The best ever result achieved by the now defunct Natural Law Party was achieved in of all constituencies Glasgow Maryhill where they polled 2.2% in 1997. Spotted the surname of this candidate, which might explain this otherwise odd result in the context of the 1997 general election?
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Mar 16, 2021 11:23:47 GMT
The best ever result achieved by the now defunct Natural Law Party was achieved in of all constituencies Glasgow Maryhill where they polled 2.2% in 1997. Spotted the surname of this candidate, which might explain this otherwise odd result in the context of the 1997 general election? Only if one accepts the premise that approximately 500 people who wanted to vote Labour were too stupid to understand the difference between the identities of party candidates and party leaders, and that they didn't check properly the list of candidates nor read the ballot paper. Unfortunately we know from the case of Devon in 1994 that there are indeed substantial numbers of such stupid people among the population. Meanwhile, after checking the name of the NLP candidate in Maryhill, I looked at the votes for the other minor parties in Glasgow in 1997, and was reminded of the fact that in Govan constituency there were candidates whose descriptions were "Scottish Labour Independent", "Scottish Labour Unofficial", and "Scottish Conservative Unofficial". What was that about?Multiple schisms in the local parties? Deliberate attempts to split the vote?
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,600
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Mar 16, 2021 14:22:12 GMT
I suspect those were related to who the (official) Labour candidate was then and the subsequent fallout (which was IIRC not insignificant)
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 16, 2021 15:05:29 GMT
I suspect those were related to who the (official) Labour candidate was then and the subsequent fallout (which was IIRC not insignificant) I don't remember any particular issues with Maria Fyfe then? Incidentally I noticed from her Wiki page that she died quite recently (Dec 2020) which I don't remember reading on the relevant thread here Edit: Just realised that the comments referred to Glasgow Govan which makes much more sense - the original Sarwar/Sturgeon contest
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,600
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Mar 16, 2021 15:08:34 GMT
Read johnloony's post again more closely.....
|
|
|
Post by peterm on Mar 16, 2021 16:40:21 GMT
There was a candidate called Thatcher at Westbury in 1979 who got 1,905 votes!
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Mar 16, 2021 20:41:43 GMT
There was a candidate called Thatcher at Westbury in 1979 who got 1,905 votes! A Wessex Regionalist called Tom Thatcher, specifically. The other Wessex Regionalist candidates polled less than 500 votes apiece, with Henrietta Rous polling a miserable 50 in North Devon that year.
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Mar 16, 2021 20:44:57 GMT
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Mar 16, 2021 20:54:42 GMT
The best ever result achieved by the now defunct Natural Law Party was achieved in of all constituencies Glasgow Maryhill where they polled 2.2% in 1997. The lowest number of votes ever polled by a Natural Law Party candidate (but not quite the lowest vote share), 24, was also achieved in Glasgow that same year, namely in the constituency of Glasgow Anniesland. Boing!
|
|
|
Post by minionofmidas on Mar 17, 2021 6:40:54 GMT
The best ever result achieved by the now defunct Natural Law Party was achieved in of all constituencies Glasgow Maryhill where they polled 2.2% in 1997. The lowest number of votes ever polled by a Natural Law Party candidate (but not quite the lowest vote share), 24, was also achieved in Glasgow that same year, namely in the constituency of Glasgow Anniesland. Boing! that's nothing, a Thatcher received 1900 votes in 1979!
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Mar 17, 2021 12:19:24 GMT
Rob Ford (I think or another psephologist) posted this on Twitter last year:- Labour's 'claw of doom' as their votes pile up in heartlands. Earlier period 1992-2001 the distribution swung in their favour:-
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Mar 17, 2021 12:59:01 GMT
Rob Ford (I think or another psephologist) posted this on Twitter last year:- Labour's 'claw of doom' as their votes pile up in heartlands. Earlier period 1992-2001 the distribution swung in their favour:- Exactly - and this is why the idea of creating a new majority on their own is unlikely.
|
|
|
Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 17, 2021 13:27:21 GMT
Rob Ford (I think or another psephologist) posted this on Twitter last year:- Labour's 'claw of doom' as their votes pile up in heartlands. Earlier period 1992-2001 the distribution swung in their favour:- Exactly - and this is why the idea of creating a new majority on their own is unlikely. So which would you recommend Labour do? Tack left, and lose support to a ready-made Centrist receptacle in the Lib Dems?, or Tack right, and lose support to a non-existent left-of-Labour party?
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Mar 17, 2021 13:46:21 GMT
Exactly - and this is why the idea of creating a new majority on their own is unlikely. So which would you recommend Labour do? Tack left, and lose support to a ready-made Centrist receptacle in the Lib Dems?, or Tack right, and lose support to a non-existent left-of-Labour party? Accept that they should abandon their majoritarian aims, back PR and make agreements with other parties to get it. And what you don't realise is just how many people aren't going to vote. Which is why Labours position has hardly shifted since 2019 in the polls (the LibDems are polling less, and this will move upwards when the election happens). Non voters do not show up in polls. There is also the fact that Labour need the LibDems to pick up some soft Tory votes as those voters will never switch straight to Labour.
|
|
|
Post by greenchristian on Mar 17, 2021 14:41:22 GMT
Exactly - and this is why the idea of creating a new majority on their own is unlikely. So which would you recommend Labour do? Tack left, and lose support to a ready-made Centrist receptacle in the Lib Dems?, or Tack right, and lose support to a non-existent left-of-Labour party? Surely the Greens are a ready-made left-of-Labour party now Corbynism is dead.
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on Mar 17, 2021 15:00:02 GMT
Rob Ford (I think or another psephologist) posted this on Twitter last year:- Labour's 'claw of doom' as their votes pile up in heartlands. That graph would be more realistic if it were aligned on the right-hand edge instead of the origin. The trail of dots at the right-hand end of the trail is essentially the same group of constituencies in each case; in order to win it needs to extend further to the left-hand edge.
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Mar 22, 2021 11:57:36 GMT
Tory share of the 2-party vote in England & Wales in 2010 - 57.6% and in 2019 - 57.6%. Matrix of seat changes for E&W 2010/19:- Of the 167 seats that were Labour at both elections their % majority rose in 105 seats:- The ratio of seats to votes (2-party) in 2010 was more or less proportional. The Tory advantage in 2019 was three dozen, which was not impressive (fell short of square law, let alone cube law).
|
|
European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,555
|
Post by European Lefty on Mar 22, 2021 15:35:29 GMT
Tory share of the 2-party vote in England & Wales in 2010 - 57.6% and in 2019 - 57.6%. Matrix of seat changes for E&W 2010/19:- Of the 167 seats that were Labour at both elections their % majority rose in 105 seats:- The ratio of seats to votes (2-party) in 2010 was more or less proportional. The Tory advantage in 2019 was three dozen, which was not impressive (fell short of square law, let alone cube law). So the 21 seats that were Tory in 2010 but Labour in '19: I count Hove, Brighton Kemptown, Warwick & Leamington, Bedford, Reading East, Canterbury, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport, Bristol North West, Lancaster & Fleetwood, Cardiff North, Battersea, Putney for 13, can't work out the other 8 though
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 22, 2021 15:37:44 GMT
City of Chester Wirral West
Immediately occur
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,725
|
Post by iain on Mar 22, 2021 15:39:08 GMT
Ilford North, Croydon Central, Ealing Central & Acton, Brentford & Isleworth, Enfield North, Enfield Southgate
Edit: and the last one is Weaver Vale
|
|