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Post by islington on Mar 22, 2021 15:40:34 GMT
Chester for one.
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Post by islington on Mar 22, 2021 15:47:43 GMT
Interesting list, actually.
Of the 21, eight are in London and two more in Brighton (which is really South-London-by-the-Sea).
What factors (if any) do the other 11 have in common? How many of them are university seats?
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iain
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Post by iain on Mar 22, 2021 15:51:33 GMT
Well one is Bristol and one is Cardiff, while three are 'greater Liverpool'.
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Post by andrewp on Mar 22, 2021 15:53:39 GMT
Interesting list, actually. Of the 21, eight are in London and two more in Brighton (which is really South-London-by-the-Sea). What factors (if any) do the other 11 have in common? How many of them are university seats? Warwick and Plymouth and Lancaster have a university influence. There’s a couple of middle class city seats where Labour relatively over performed in 2019- Bristol and Cardiff
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Mar 22, 2021 15:57:30 GMT
Tory share of the 2-party vote in England & Wales in 2010 - 57.6% and in 2019 - 57.6%. Matrix of seat changes for E&W 2010/19:- Of the 167 seats that were Labour at both elections their % majority rose in 105 seats:- The ratio of seats to votes (2-party) in 2010 was more or less proportional. The Tory advantage in 2019 was three dozen, which was not impressive (fell short of square law, let alone cube law).
In 2019 the Liberal Democrats won just 4 of the 46 seats they won in 2010. That's 8.7%. I would never have predicted that in 2010.
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Mar 22, 2021 20:36:17 GMT
Interesting list, actually. Of the 21, eight are in London and two more in Brighton (which is really South-London-by-the-Sea). What factors (if any) do the other 11 have in common? How many of them are university seats? Reading East is one London(ish): Brentford & Isleworth, Ilford North, Enfield North, Enfield Southgate, Ealing Central, Croydon Central, Hove, Brighton Kemptown, Battersea, Putney (10) Liverpool(ish): Wirral West, Weaver Vale, Chester (3) University dominated: Reading East, Warwick & Leamington, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport (3) Heavy remain vote: Cardiff North, Bristol NW (2) That leaves Canterbury, Bedford, Lancaster & Fleetwood with no explanation so far. Bedford has also been undergoing Londonisation, the other two have university presences but I wouldn't have though that overwhelm natural Tory instincts in Canterbury or Labour's myriad other problems in Lancaster
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Post by European Lefty on Mar 22, 2021 20:38:56 GMT
Tory share of the 2-party vote in England & Wales in 2010 - 57.6% and in 2019 - 57.6%. Matrix of seat changes for E&W 2010/19:- Of the 167 seats that were Labour at both elections their % majority rose in 105 seats:- The ratio of seats to votes (2-party) in 2010 was more or less proportional. The Tory advantage in 2019 was three dozen, which was not impressive (fell short of square law, let alone cube law).
In 2019 the Liberal Democrats won just 4 of the 46 seats they won in 2010. That's 8.7%. I would never have predicted that in 2010.
Those 4 must be Kingston & Surbiton, Twickenham, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Bath. Westmoreland certainly stands out on that list as not being urban or especially pro-EU
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Post by manchesterman on Mar 22, 2021 20:48:22 GMT
Found the original, and just look at the efficiency/consistency of the Tory graph in comparison!
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Mar 22, 2021 22:34:01 GMT
Those 4 must be Kingston & Surbiton, Twickenham, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Bath. Westmoreland certainly stands out on that list as not being urban or especially pro-EUIt did vote remain (South Lakeland that is) by a margin close to the national average, which to me is a mystery in itself. I still find it surprising as it is not only rural and not particularly influenced by any major urban conurbation nearby (say like Sefton = Liverpool, etc), but also went to show that the tiresome 'all northerners are leavers' trope is not wholly true given how many affluent Surrey/Sussex rural districts voted leave sometimes by large margins, as did similar Cumbria boroughs, Cheshire E+W, etc. Even High Peak voted leave, just about. At first I could only put it down to possibly the campaigning strength of the local MP as I'd heard nothing but praise about him and he was a regular on North West Tonight long before becoming leader, but the 2017 election tested that theory to (almost) destruction... If anyone who knows Kendal and environs better can explain, that would be great!
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Post by European Lefty on Mar 22, 2021 22:40:12 GMT
Those 4 must be Kingston & Surbiton, Twickenham, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Bath. Westmoreland certainly stands out on that list as not being urban or especially pro-EUIt did vote remain (South Lakeland that is) by a margin close to the national average, which to me is a mystery in itself. I still find it surprising as it is not only rural and not particularly influenced by any major urban conurbation nearby (say like Sefton = Liverpool, etc), but also went to show that the tiresome 'all northerners are leavers' trope is not wholly true given how many affluent Surrey/Sussex rural districts voted leave sometimes by large margins, as did similar Cumbria boroughs, Cheshire E+W, etc. Even High Peak voted leave, just about. At first I could only put it down to possibly the campaigning strength of the local MP as I'd heard nothing but praise about him and he was a regular on North West Tonight long before becoming leader, but the 2017 election tested that theory to (almost) destruction... If anyone who knows Kendal and environs better can explain, that would be great! From what I hear Kendal is basically the Stroud of Cumbria (arty and full of hippies). My guess, although it's not an area I know massively well, would be: Kendal: hugely remain Windermere: narrow remain Ulverston: comfortably leave Coastal and rural bits: comfortably leave adding up to a narrow remain vote
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 22, 2021 22:40:58 GMT
Those 4 must be Kingston & Surbiton, Twickenham, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Bath. Westmoreland certainly stands out on that list as not being urban or especially pro-EUIt did vote remain (South Lakeland that is) by a margin close to the national average, which to me is a mystery in itself. I still find it surprising as it is not only rural and not particularly influenced by any major urban conurbation nearby (say like Sefton = Liverpool, etc), but also went to show that the tiresome 'all northerners are leavers' trope is not wholly true given how many affluent Surrey/Sussex rural districts voted leave sometimes by large margins, as did similar Cumbria boroughs, Cheshire E+W, etc. Even High Peak voted leave, just about. At first I could only put it down to possibly the campaigning strength of the local MP as I'd heard nothing but praise about him and he was a regular on North West Tonight long before becoming leader, but the 2017 election tested that theory to (almost) destruction... If anyone who knows Kendal and environs better can explain, that would be great! Kendal is quite a liberal town with a small "l" - notable new age presence, for example
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Post by greenhert on Mar 22, 2021 22:45:21 GMT
Interesting list, actually. Of the 21, eight are in London and two more in Brighton (which is really South-London-by-the-Sea). What factors (if any) do the other 11 have in common? How many of them are university seats? Reading East is one London(ish): Brentford & Isleworth, Ilford North, Enfield North, Enfield Southgate, Ealing Central, Croydon Central, Hove, Brighton Kemptown, Battersea, Putney (10) Liverpool(ish): Wirral West, Weaver Vale, Chester (3) University dominated: Reading East, Warwick & Leamington, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport (3) Heavy remain vote: Cardiff North, Bristol NW (2) That leaves Canterbury, Bedford, Lancaster & Fleetwood with no explanation so far. Bedford has also been undergoing Londonisation, the other two have university presences but I wouldn't have though that overwhelm natural Tory instincts in Canterbury or Labour's myriad other problems in Lancaster You mean Bedford is undergoing demographic change favourable to Labour. Cardiff North has also been doing so since the Conservative majorities in 2010 and 2015 were thousands short of the 1992 Conservative majority in that seat. Canterbury also had an out of touch and outdated Conservative MP by the name of Sir Julian Brazier, and enough of the student electorate turned out to ensure he was defeated in 2017. As for Lancaster & Fleetwood, Cat Smith is well respected by non-student Lancastrians as well.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 22, 2021 22:57:51 GMT
In 2019 the Liberal Democrats won just 4 of the 46 seats they won in 2010. That's 8.7%. I would never have predicted that in 2010.
Those 4 must be Kingston & Surbiton, Twickenham, Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Bath. Westmoreland certainly stands out on that list as not being urban or especially pro-EU Westmoreland & Lonsdale and Orkney & Shetland were the only 2 seats that the Lib Dems held in all the 3 elections from 2015 - 2019.
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Post by andrewp on Mar 22, 2021 22:58:27 GMT
Reading East is one London(ish): Brentford & Isleworth, Ilford North, Enfield North, Enfield Southgate, Ealing Central, Croydon Central, Hove, Brighton Kemptown, Battersea, Putney (10) Liverpool(ish): Wirral West, Weaver Vale, Chester (3) University dominated: Reading East, Warwick & Leamington, Plymouth Sutton & Devonport (3) Heavy remain vote: Cardiff North, Bristol NW (2) That leaves Canterbury, Bedford, Lancaster & Fleetwood with no explanation so far. Bedford has also been undergoing Londonisation, the other two have university presences but I wouldn't have though that overwhelm natural Tory instincts in Canterbury or Labour's myriad other problems in Lancaster You mean Bedford is undergoing demographic change favourable to Labour. Cardiff North has also been doing so since the Conservative majorities in 2010 and 2015 were thousands short of the 1992 Conservative majority in that seat. Canterbury also had an out of touch and outdated Conservative MP by the name of Sir Julian Brazier, and enough of the student electorate turned out to ensure he was defeated in 2017. As for Lancaster & Fleetwood, Cat Smith is well respected by non-student Lancastrians as well. I think Bedford is a bit of an anomaly on this list. The Conservative share in 2019 was 4% higher than it was in 2010. That isn’t that different from the national rise over that period. It was won by the Conservatives in 2010, and not in 2019 because the Lib Dem’s got a sizeable vote in 2010 and that vote went to Labour in 2019. Pre 1997, the constituency included more rural areas than it does now and Labour did win that seat in the past, so unlike some of the others on that list it hasn’t moved dramatically over time.
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Post by greenhert on Mar 22, 2021 23:08:47 GMT
It did vote remain (South Lakeland that is) by a margin close to the national average, which to me is a mystery in itself. I still find it surprising as it is not only rural and not particularly influenced by any major urban conurbation nearby (say like Sefton = Liverpool, etc), but also went to show that the tiresome 'all northerners are leavers' trope is not wholly true given how many affluent Surrey/Sussex rural districts voted leave sometimes by large margins, as did similar Cumbria boroughs, Cheshire E+W, etc. Even High Peak voted leave, just about. At first I could only put it down to possibly the campaigning strength of the local MP as I'd heard nothing but praise about him and he was a regular on North West Tonight long before becoming leader, but the 2017 election tested that theory to (almost) destruction... If anyone who knows Kendal and environs better can explain, that would be great! From what I hear Kendal is basically the Stroud of Cumbria (arty and full of hippies). My guess, although it's not an area I know massively well, would be: Kendal: hugely remain Windermere: narrow remain Ulverston: comfortably leave Coastal and rural bits: comfortably leave adding up to a narrow remain vote And Ulverston, along with a short bit of the Lonsdale area, is in the constituency of Barrow-in-Furness. Kendal is not quite the "Stroud" of Cumbria; I have been to both.
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Post by European Lefty on Mar 22, 2021 23:12:24 GMT
From what I hear Kendal is basically the Stroud of Cumbria (arty and full of hippies). My guess, although it's not an area I know massively well, would be: Kendal: hugely remain Windermere: narrow remain Ulverston: comfortably leave Coastal and rural bits: comfortably leave adding up to a narrow remain vote And Ulverston, along with a short bit of the Lonsdale area, is in the constituency of Barrow-in-Furness. Kendal is not quite the "Stroud" of Cumbria; I have been to both. However Ulverston is in the local authority which is the unit in which the referendum results were counted
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 22, 2021 23:18:03 GMT
From what I hear Kendal is basically the Stroud of Cumbria (arty and full of hippies). My guess, although it's not an area I know massively well, would be: Kendal: hugely remain Windermere: narrow remain Ulverston: comfortably leave Coastal and rural bits: comfortably leave adding up to a narrow remain vote And Ulverston, along with a short bit of the Lonsdale area, is in the constituency of Barrow-in-Furness. Kendal is not quite the "Stroud" of Cumbria; I have been to both. Leave/Remain was tallied on a local authority basis i.e. for South Lakeland which does include Ulverston. South Lakeland and the W&L constituency are not coterminous but are nearest approximations.
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iain
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Post by iain on Mar 23, 2021 0:03:34 GMT
It did vote remain (South Lakeland that is) by a margin close to the national average, which to me is a mystery in itself. I still find it surprising as it is not only rural and not particularly influenced by any major urban conurbation nearby (say like Sefton = Liverpool, etc), but also went to show that the tiresome 'all northerners are leavers' trope is not wholly true given how many affluent Surrey/Sussex rural districts voted leave sometimes by large margins, as did similar Cumbria boroughs, Cheshire E+W, etc. Even High Peak voted leave, just about. At first I could only put it down to possibly the campaigning strength of the local MP as I'd heard nothing but praise about him and he was a regular on North West Tonight long before becoming leader, but the 2017 election tested that theory to (almost) destruction... If anyone who knows Kendal and environs better can explain, that would be great! From what I hear Kendal is basically the Stroud of Cumbria (arty and full of hippies). My guess, although it's not an area I know massively well, would be: Kendal: hugely remain Windermere: narrow remain Ulverston: comfortably leave Coastal and rural bits: comfortably leave adding up to a narrow remain vote I don’t think that’s quite right - in the BBC exercise from a couple of years ago to find more localised results, South Lakeland gave them the EU result for five wards. All included a random selection of postals, but tje ‘Remain’ votes were as follows: Ambleside & Grasmere - 57.8% Kendal Far Cross - 47.0% Kendal Highgate - 54.5% Kendal Oxenholme & Natland - 54.2% Kendal Parks - 50.3% I imagine the vote in different villages was quite variable.
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 23, 2021 0:30:52 GMT
Ah yes, the "white settlers" of Skye with their potteries and aromatherapy businesses!
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Post by Merseymike on Mar 23, 2021 0:32:56 GMT
You mean Bedford is undergoing demographic change favourable to Labour. Cardiff North has also been doing so since the Conservative majorities in 2010 and 2015 were thousands short of the 1992 Conservative majority in that seat. Canterbury also had an out of touch and outdated Conservative MP by the name of Sir Julian Brazier, and enough of the student electorate turned out to ensure he was defeated in 2017. As for Lancaster & Fleetwood, Cat Smith is well respected by non-student Lancastrians as well. Brazier suited that area well apart from the transient wanker student element. Cat Smith is a complete and utter bloody moron. No, she isn't - just not to your political taste. She is a good fit for Lancaster with its large local Green vote which happily votes for Cat Smith.
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