Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2021 11:41:18 GMT
In 2020, London's population had a net decrease for the first time since 1988.
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 7, 2021 17:49:49 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 7, 2021 19:51:42 GMT
DUP are far-left ?
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 7, 2021 20:07:28 GMT
Maybe he's applying horseshoe theory.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 8, 2021 3:35:17 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 12, 2021 22:30:54 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 13, 2021 10:45:51 GMT
Two simulations of a replayed 2015 (Scotland not affected). Tory vote shifts (in stages) to UKIP:- Tory and Labour votes shift (in stages) to UKIP:-
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 13, 2021 12:44:37 GMT
Two simulations, 1983/2010, where All/LDs replace Labour (i.e. votes shifting directly from Labour to Liberal):-
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Post by greenhert on Mar 13, 2021 19:43:21 GMT
The record for the lowest vote total that still won a by-election in modern times is still held by the late Harry Cowans, who polled just 4,692 votes when he held Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central in a 1976 by-election.
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Mar 13, 2021 20:07:55 GMT
car ownership was a variable in particular the pollsters looked at after the 1992 debacle
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Mar 13, 2021 22:55:55 GMT
The record for the lowest vote total that still won a by-election in modern times is still held by the late Harry Cowans, who polled just 4,692 votes when he held Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central in a 1976 by-election. What was the turnout? Conveniently, the turnout figure is missing on the Wikipedia page for the constituency and the by-election. They say the lowest turnout in modern times was 18.2% in Manchester Central in 2012.
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 13, 2021 23:07:21 GMT
The record for the lowest vote total that still won a by-election in modern times is still held by the late Harry Cowans, who polled just 4,692 votes when he held Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central in a 1976 by-election. What was the turnout? Conveniently, the turnout figure is missing on the Wikipedia page for the constituency and the by-election. They say the lowest turnout in modern times was 18.2% in Manchester Central in 2012. 39%
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Post by greenhert on Mar 13, 2021 23:16:16 GMT
The electorate of that version of Newcastle Central was tiny, though-it had dropped to 23,578 in 1979, according to F.W.S. Craig.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 13, 2021 23:39:37 GMT
It was a very odd constituency, running along the north bank of the Tyne from Benwell almost to Walker but being very narrow - it only just touched the Town Moor. Only 787 hectares. The electorate was 24,659 in 1975, 24,114 in 1976, 23,683 in 1977, 23,556 in 1978, but then staged a small rally back to 24,482 in 1982.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2021 0:18:10 GMT
Hmm, yes I can see the logic as an indicator... Tallying with total income, expendable income, perhaps an effect of having more taxes to pay (road tax, VAT on petrol etc), but surely also just partly a by-product of geographical location and distribution of the parties' votes. Labour's vote is concentrated in urban areas where cars aren't a necessity to the extent they are in more rural areas.
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 14, 2021 0:19:57 GMT
Hmm, yes I can see the logic as an indicator... Tallying with total income, expendable income, perhaps an effect of having more taxes to pay (road tax, VAT on petrol etc), but surely also just partly a by-product of geographical location and distribution of the parties' votes. Labour's vote is concentrated in urban areas where cars aren't a necessity to the extent they are in more rural areas. I'm very sceptical about this. The deciding factor may be living in densely populated areas where having a car is not as important or necessary for people, rather than car ownership itself. In other words non-Tories tend to choose to live in those types of areas.
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pl
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Post by pl on Mar 14, 2021 0:46:23 GMT
Hmm, yes I can see the logic as an indicator... Tallying with total income, expendable income, perhaps an effect of having more taxes to pay (road tax, VAT on petrol etc), but surely also just partly a by-product of geographical location and distribution of the parties' votes. Labour's vote is concentrated in urban areas where cars aren't a necessity to the extent they are in more rural areas. Indeed... repeat after me... "Correlation Does Not Imply Causation"
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2021 1:12:59 GMT
Hmm, yes I can see the logic as an indicator... Tallying with total income, expendable income, perhaps an effect of having more taxes to pay (road tax, VAT on petrol etc), but surely also just partly a by-product of geographical location and distribution of the parties' votes. Labour's vote is concentrated in urban areas where cars aren't a necessity to the extent they are in more rural areas. Indeed... repeat after me... "Correlation Does Not Imply Causation" "Correlation Does Not Imply Causation"
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Post by hullenedge on Mar 15, 2021 11:52:24 GMT
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Post by greenhert on Mar 16, 2021 8:39:06 GMT
The best ever result achieved by the now defunct Natural Law Party was achieved in of all constituencies Glasgow Maryhill where they polled 2.2% in 1997. The lowest number of votes ever polled by a Natural Law Party candidate (but not quite the lowest vote share), 24, was also achieved in Glasgow that same year, namely in the constituency of Glasgow Anniesland.
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