jrl72
Non-Aligned
Posts: 5
|
Post by jrl72 on Nov 4, 2024 12:52:49 GMT
I’m not sure about that. I agree Pennsylvania is likely to be the decisive state. But there is a path for Trump without it.. If Trump wins Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona which he is generally favoured to do, he needs to win only one of the rust belt swing states. Therefore he could lose Pennsylvania provided he wins Wisconsin (or Michigan). The path for Harris without Pennsylvania may be equally, if not more, difficult as it requires her to win either North Carolina or Georgia , plus either Nevada or Arizona.
|
|
johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849 
|
Post by johng on Nov 5, 2024 20:11:35 GMT
Anecdotal evidence of very high turnout in Philly, but also anecdotal reports of high turnout in rural areas too. Turnout of Pennsylvania was 76.5% last time. Seems it could breach 80% this time.
|
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Nov 5, 2024 20:15:37 GMT
Anecdotal evidence of very high turnout in Philly, but also anecdotal reports of high turnout in rural areas too. Turnout of Pennsylvania was 76.5% last time. Seems it could breach 80% this time.
Ds can outweigh the rural turnout with Harris's margin in Philly and its collar counties - Bucks, Delaware, Montgomery. Chester County will be good for her too. |
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
|
Post by stb12 on Nov 7, 2024 22:19:57 GMT
Pennsylvania will return to having a split party Senate delegation
|
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Nov 8, 2024 5:53:56 GMT
Not all that surprising that Casey lost - Republicans won his seat in 2000 with Rick Santorum getting re-elected to a second term. The silver lining for Democrats is holding on to the Pennsylvania State House with a one seat majority, unchanged from 2022. Every incumbent was re-elected. The losses in the 7th and 8th districts are more disappointing for them, and they failed to pick up the 10th. A bad night, but not a total bloodbath for them. John Fetterman has already come out swinging against the Greens. Personally, I don't think blaming the electorate is a good look, no matter how easy it is to do.
|
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
|
Post by stb12 on Nov 8, 2024 11:11:51 GMT
Not all that surprising that Casey lost - Republicans won his seat in 2000 with Rick Santorum getting re-elected to a second term. The silver lining for Democrats is holding on to the Pennsylvania State House with a one seat majority, unchanged from 2022. Every incumbent was re-elected. The losses in the 7th and 8th districts are more disappointing for them, and they failed to pick up the 10th. A bad night, but not a total bloodbath for them. John Fetterman has already come out swinging against the Greens. Personally, I don't think blaming the electorate is a good look, no matter how easy it is to do. Fetterman does seem to vary between sounding very non-partisan then very partisan like this |
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Nov 8, 2024 11:14:44 GMT
Not all that surprising that Casey lost - Republicans won his seat in 2000 with Rick Santorum getting re-elected to a second term. The silver lining for Democrats is holding on to the Pennsylvania State House with a one seat majority, unchanged from 2022. Every incumbent was re-elected. The losses in the 7th and 8th districts are more disappointing for them, and they failed to pick up the 10th. A bad night, but not a total bloodbath for them. John Fetterman has already come out swinging against the Greens. Personally, I don't think blaming the electorate is a good look, no matter how easy it is to do. Fetterman does seem to vary between sounding very non-partisan then very partisan like this Well Fetterman won (fairly easily) and has decent appeal. I like him. He now gets to be Pennsylvania's senior Senator! His win was the best result of the 2022 cycle. |
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
|
Post by stb12 on Nov 8, 2024 11:29:45 GMT
Fetterman does seem to vary between sounding very non-partisan then very partisan like this Well Fetterman won (fairly easily) and has decent appeal. I like him. He now gets to be Pennsylvania's senior Senator! His win was the best result of the 2022 cycle. He certainly had a non-typical politician appeal and speaks his mind in a way that probably commands some respect As discussed before Oz was a pretty poor candidate though, it would have been interesting if McCormick had won the primary in 2022 which he probably would have done without Trump’s intervention |
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Nov 8, 2024 11:33:00 GMT
Well Fetterman won (fairly easily) and has decent appeal. I like him. He now gets to be Pennsylvania's senior Senator! His win was the best result of the 2022 cycle. He certainly had a non-typical politician appeal and speaks his mind in a way that probably commands some respect As discussed before Oz was a pretty poor candidate though, it would have been interesting if McCormick had won the primary in 2022 which he probably would have done without Trump’s intervention I suspect McCormick is glad he lost that primary now. Doug Mastriano dragged down all the other statewide Republicans down with him. Similarly, I think Josh Shapiro is glad he was passed over for Vice President as the Democrats would have lost either way. It sets him up well for running for President in 2028. |
|
|
|
Post by timmullen on Nov 8, 2024 11:53:34 GMT
Not all that surprising that Casey lost - Republicans won his seat in 2000 with Rick Santorum getting re-elected to a second term. The silver lining for Democrats is holding on to the Pennsylvania State House with a one seat majority, unchanged from 2022. Every incumbent was re-elected. The losses in the 7th and 8th districts are more disappointing for them, and they failed to pick up the 10th. A bad night, but not a total bloodbath for them. John Fetterman has already come out swinging against the Greens. Personally, I don't think blaming the electorate is a good look, no matter how easy it is to do. Fetterman does seem to vary between sounding very non-partisan then very partisan like this I just don’t think he’s got much sympathy for the environmental agenda, probably typical for someone from Appalachia; note the “concerns” he expressed last week about Harris’ change of stance on fracking. |
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
|
Post by stb12 on Nov 8, 2024 20:52:34 GMT
Bob Casey’s campaign seems to be stubbornly refusing to concede defeat
|
|
|
|
Post by timmullen on Nov 8, 2024 21:08:59 GMT
Bob Casey’s campaign seems to be stubbornly refusing to concede defeat Well there’s weird stuff going on in this race because McCormick has been to court today (unsuccessfully) to try and get 30,000+ provisional ballots kicked out in Philly. His court filing also states that there are more uncounted ballots just in that county than his lead over Casey. Why try and get votes removed if you’ve won? |
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Nov 9, 2024 6:14:07 GMT
Bob Casey’s campaign seems to be stubbornly refusing to concede defeat Well there’s weird stuff going on in this race because McCormick has been to court today (unsuccessfully) to try and get 30,000+ provisional ballots kicked out in Philly. His court filing also states that there are more uncounted ballots just in that county than his lead over Casey. Why try and get votes removed if you’ve won? "Bad things happen in Philadelphia, bad things" - Donald J. Trump. |
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
|
Post by stb12 on Nov 15, 2024 8:28:42 GMT
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
|
Post by The Bishop on Nov 15, 2024 12:43:26 GMT
Isn't it now going to a recount anyway?
|
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
|
Post by stb12 on Nov 15, 2024 13:07:00 GMT
Isn't it now going to a recount anyway? The state law mandates it because of the margin but I guess the call can be made since recounts are always unlikely to change results unless you’re dealing with margins around low triple figures or lower, or if there’s any huge discrepancies with the counting done already somewhere that get discovered |
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Nov 15, 2024 19:16:36 GMT
The Keystone State then and now. South West PA has changed hugely. It contains what was the only Kerry - McCain district in the United States.
|
|
