stb12
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Post by stb12 on Sept 5, 2024 23:15:31 GMT
19 electoral college votes
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Post by sanders on Sept 9, 2024 4:33:18 GMT
This is a beautiful graphic, honestly. SEPA will be important, especially the Philly collar counties. Bucks, Delaware and Montgomery have been consistently blue since 1992, and only moderates like Arlen Specter (who joined the Democrats in 2009 before losing the Senate primaries to Admiral Joe Sestak in 2010) could win those areas. Mitt Romney famously flipped Chester County in 2012, but Hillary Clinton won it in 2016. It's fair to say that Chester Co. never looked back. Bucks is the most WWC of all of these counties, and evidence of that is the fairly static victories for Democrats there in 2016 and 2020. Trump did gain ground in urban Philadelphia in 2020, but Harris being Black won't harm Democrats there.
For Trump to win PA, IMHO, he will probably require 1) split opposition - he won by 0.7% in 2016; and 2) decent showings with Black voters - I mean 10%+. The fracking issue will be important in the Keystone State (which is projected to be the tipping point state this year). Still, Senator John Fetterman (who biffed Trump's nominee by 5% in 2022) is pro-fracking. If I were Harris, I'd let Fetterman take the lead in campaigning in the rural areas. He swung pretty much every county in the Democrats' favour, except Pike County which shifted towards Dr Oz a bit compared to 2016 (but it's the exception that proves the rule). The rule being that Fetterman is an electoral machine.
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Post by timmullen on Sept 10, 2024 1:22:12 GMT
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Post by riccimarsh on Sept 10, 2024 1:34:39 GMT
I’m so thankful that UK elections are decided by votes rather than litigation strategies and court compositions. |
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Post by sanders on Sept 10, 2024 8:28:25 GMT
Pennsylvania Dems shellacked Republicans in the 2022 governor's race, and snatched the State House. This year, there's a chance for Democrats to take the State Senate. It comes down to seats like this, which have become fairly competitive in recent times, and are now, broadly speaking, virtually bellwethers.
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Post by sanders on Sept 25, 2024 13:41:41 GMT
A sleeper flip for Democrats here. Scott Perry is also quite extreme. He's Chair of the House Freedom Caucus. Harrisburg (Pennsylvania state capital) is left-trending. This and PA-01 could both flip. PA-01's GOP Congressman relies on split-ticketing. Harris is likely carrying Bucks County. Her margin could doom Brian Fitzpatrick.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Sept 25, 2024 13:52:07 GMT
A sleeper flip for Democrats here. Scott Perry is also quite extreme. He's Chair of the House Freedom Caucus. Harrisburg (Pennsylvania state capital) is left-trending. This and PA-01 could both flip. PA-01's GOP Congressman relies on split-ticketing. Harris is likely carrying Bucks County. Her margin could doom Brian Fitzpatrick. You certainly don’t have much in the way of positive predictions for the GOP do you  |
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Post by sanders on Sept 25, 2024 13:55:49 GMT
A sleeper flip for Democrats here. Scott Perry is also quite extreme. He's Chair of the House Freedom Caucus. Harrisburg (Pennsylvania state capital) is left-trending. This and PA-01 could both flip. PA-01's GOP Congressman relies on split-ticketing. Harris is likely carrying Bucks County. Her margin could doom Brian Fitzpatrick. You certainly don’t have much in the way of positive predictions for the GOP do you Not with Trump at the helm, no. If you look at the California thread, I have predicted two Republican gains there (CA-09 and CA-47). Closer to PA, I think Republicans could gain Indiana's 1st District because it's Black voting age population is declining. I also think Republicans will get a swing in their favour in New York. I've also predicted that Jon Tester is going down in Montana. Another seat where I think Republicans could win is Georgia's 2nd where you have rural areas losing African American population. I'm predicting a 50-50 Senate which isn't that much of a bad outcome for Republicans. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Sept 25, 2024 14:04:17 GMT
You certainly don’t have much in the way of positive predictions for the GOP do you Not with Trump at the helm, no. If you look at the California thread, I have predicted two Republican gains there (CA-09 and CA-47). Closer to PA, I think Republicans could gain Indiana's 1st District because its Black voting age population is declining. I also think Republicans will get a swing in their favour in New York. I've also predicted that Jon Tester is going down in Montana. Another seat where I think Republicans could win is Georgia's 2nd where you have rural areas losing African American population. I'm predicting a 50-50 Senate which isn't that much of a bad outcome for Republicans. I’m only jesting a bit anyway, personally I think everything just seems too close to call at the moment (meaning House and Senate control as well as the Presidency) and polling is all over the place Even if it’s just with a 50-50 Senate I think it would be a disaster for the Republicans if it’s a Democrat trifecta again, certainly the Senate map is an ideal opportunity even if Trump goes down to maintain some control over the government. With Manchin and Sinema going it possibly might even see some kind of filibuster reform go through, although some other more moderate Senators may hesitate the pressure will be enormous |
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Post by timmullen on Sept 25, 2024 14:14:43 GMT
With Manchin and Sinema going it possibly might even see some kind of filibuster reform go through, although some other more moderate Senators may hesitate the pressure will be enormous Harris has said she would support abolition of the filibuster for the purposes of codifying a national right to an abortion, resulting in the utter disaster (sarcasm there) of Joe Manchin saying he won’t vote for her. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Sept 25, 2024 14:16:52 GMT
With Manchin and Sinema going it possibly might even see some kind of filibuster reform go through, although some other more moderate Senators may hesitate the pressure will be enormous Harris has said she would support abolition of the filibuster for the purposes of codifying a national right to an abortion, resulting in the utter disaster (sarcasm there) of Joe Manchin saying he won’t vote for her. I mentioned that in the general 2024 thread, he had not long ago sounded like he was on the verge of endorsing her so seems it took him by surprise |
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Post by timmullen on Sept 25, 2024 14:19:40 GMT
Harris has said she would support abolition of the filibuster for the purposes of codifying a national right to an abortion, resulting in the utter disaster (sarcasm there) of Joe Manchin saying he won’t vote for her. I mentioned that in the general 2024 thread, he had not long ago sounded like he was on the verge of endorsing her so seems it took him by surprise I don’t think so, he’s saying because she had changed her position on fracking, making him consider endorsing her, he was hoping she would similarly change her mind on this and as she hasn’t/isn’t he can’t support her. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 25, 2024 14:42:34 GMT
With Manchin and Sinema going it possibly might even see some kind of filibuster reform go through, although some other more moderate Senators may hesitate the pressure will be enormous Harris has said she would support abolition of the filibuster for the purposes of codifying a national right to an abortion, resulting in the utter disaster (sarcasm there) of Joe Manchin saying he won’t vote for her. But presumably if the GOP won a trifecta, and the filibuster went, a national non-right to abortion could be passed. |
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Post by sanders on Sept 25, 2024 14:57:07 GMT
Harris has said she would support abolition of the filibuster for the purposes of codifying a national right to an abortion, resulting in the utter disaster (sarcasm there) of Joe Manchin saying he won’t vote for her. But presumably if the GOP won a trifecta, and the filibuster went, a national non-right to abortion could be passed. Yes, hence it's the nuclear option. Democrats could try getting D.C. statehood. That'd give them two safe seats. But yes, filibuster reform is messy. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Sept 25, 2024 15:05:35 GMT
Harris has said she would support abolition of the filibuster for the purposes of codifying a national right to an abortion, resulting in the utter disaster (sarcasm there) of Joe Manchin saying he won’t vote for her. But presumably if the GOP won a trifecta, and the filibuster went, a national non-right to abortion could be passed. That’s a point Kyrsten Sinema has made The GOP do seem more cautious on the filibuster, McConnell resisted pressure from Trump to get rid of it when they had the trifecta 2017-19 and his expected successors have said they’re committed to it under all circumstances as well. However it’s a risk if the Democrats make the first move for when the balance of power changes, even just carving it up for particular types of legislation kind of defeats the whole purpose and sets an easy precedent |
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Post by timmullen on Sept 25, 2024 15:28:42 GMT
But presumably if the GOP won a trifecta, and the filibuster went, a national non-right to abortion could be passed. That’s a point Kyrsten Sinema is made The GOP do seem more cautious on the filibuster, McConnell resisted pressure from Trump to get rid of it when they had the trifecta 2017-19 and his expected successors have said they’re committed to it under all circumstances as well. However it’s a risk if the Democrats make the first move for when the balance of power changes, even just carving it up for particular types of legislation kind of defeats the whole purpose and sets an easy precedent Which was the mistake Harry Reid made in abolishing it for nominations; Trump would have struggled to get 90-odd% of his judicial nominations through if a 60 vote cloture motion had been required, and it also gave McConnell the precedent to extend it to SCOTUS nominees, none of whom would have got through under the old system. (Of course Harris is being pretty clever because she can’t do anything about it, the Senate sets its own rules, so all she’s really signaling is that she would sign any such Bill that was passed, but in doing so encourages supporters of such legislation to vote Democratic downballot as well). |
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pl
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Post by pl on Sept 25, 2024 17:08:43 GMT
But presumably if the GOP won a trifecta, and the filibuster went, a national non-right to abortion could be passed. Yes, hence it's the nuclear option. Democrats could try getting D.C. statehood. That'd give them two safe seats. But yes, filibuster reform is messy. Or Puerto Rico. |
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Post by sanders on Sept 25, 2024 17:11:32 GMT
Yes, hence it's the nuclear option. Democrats could try getting D.C. statehood. That'd give them two safe seats. But yes, filibuster reform is messy. Or Puerto Rico. Possibly both but DC would be far more of a lock for Democrats. It’s not impossible Puerto Rico could vote Republican in the right circumstances for the party. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 5, 2024 17:48:46 GMT
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Post by sanders on Oct 6, 2024 6:10:04 GMT
Trump returned to Butler County yesterday. He was behind bullet proof glass. It's just not the same, really. Will Biden be behind bullet-proof glass? Casey will be absolutely fine here. McCormick is a carpetbagger from Connecticut. He underperforms Trump in western Pennsylvania. He might outrun him in suburbs. Overall, an out-of-state rich guy basically. Republicans ran a carpetbagger last time. They haven't learned a thing, really. Republicans' Pennsylvania bench is thinning out. Casey will easily win re-election here. It's an open and shut Case(y). |
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