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Post by stb12 on Sept 5, 2024 23:15:31 GMT
19 electoral college votes
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Post by sanders on Sept 9, 2024 4:33:18 GMT
This is a beautiful graphic, honestly. SEPA will be important, especially the Philly collar counties. Bucks, Delaware and Montgomery have been consistently blue since 1992, and only moderates like Arlen Specter (who joined the Democrats in 2009 before losing the Senate primaries to Admiral Joe Sestak in 2010) could win those areas. Mitt Romney famously flipped Chester County in 2012, but Hillary Clinton won it in 2016. It's fair to say that Chester Co. never looked back. Bucks is the most WWC of all of these counties, and evidence of that is the fairly static victories for Democrats there in 2016 and 2020. Trump did gain ground in urban Philadelphia in 2020, but Harris being Black won't harm Democrats there.
For Trump to win PA, IMHO, he will probably require 1) split opposition - he won by 0.7% in 2016; and 2) decent showings with Black voters - I mean 10%+. The fracking issue will be important in the Keystone State (which is projected to be the tipping point state this year). Still, Senator John Fetterman (who biffed Trump's nominee by 5% in 2022) is pro-fracking. If I were Harris, I'd let Fetterman take the lead in campaigning in the rural areas. He swung pretty much every county in the Democrats' favour, except Pike County which shifted towards Dr Oz a bit compared to 2016 (but it's the exception that proves the rule). The rule being that Fetterman is an electoral machine.
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Post by timmullen on Sept 10, 2024 1:22:12 GMT
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riccimarsh
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Post by riccimarsh on Sept 10, 2024 1:34:39 GMT
I’m so thankful that UK elections are decided by votes rather than litigation strategies and court compositions.
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Post by sanders on Sept 10, 2024 8:28:25 GMT
Pennsylvania Dems shellacked Republicans in the 2022 governor's race, and snatched the State House. This year, there's a chance for Democrats to take the State Senate. It comes down to seats like this, which have become fairly competitive in recent times, and are now, broadly speaking, virtually bellwethers.
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