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Post by sanders on Oct 10, 2024 3:58:22 GMT
Pennsylvania's 10th moves to toss-up status. Scott Perry is Freedom Caucus Chair. That's a far right GOP faction. PA-10 contains the state capital, Harrisburg. It's been trending left a bit. Democrats winning it wouldn't be shocking. Pennsylvania's 1st District could also fall. Republicans may win PA-07 and PA-08. Plenty of Keystone State marginal Districts. It matters for the House election. Three toss-up Districts on this map.
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Post by sanders on Oct 22, 2024 5:41:58 GMT
And then they said, Pennsylvania Senate is a toss-up! I don't believe it. Casey is an electoral juggernaut.
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Post by timmullen on Oct 22, 2024 6:34:55 GMT
And then they said, Pennsylvania Senate is a toss-up! I don't believe it. Casey is an electoral juggernaut. In the same update Cook Political Report has moved Wisconsin Senate to toss up. |
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Post by sanders on Oct 22, 2024 6:44:41 GMT
And then they said, Pennsylvania Senate is a toss-up! I don't believe it. Casey is an electoral juggernaut. In the same update Cook Political Report has moved Wisconsin Senate to toss up. Presidential polarisation catching up in both? That doesn’t bode well for Sherrod Brown. Casey losing would be an upset. The family name is royalty here. Like the Beshear name in Kentucky. Or the Kennedy name in Massachusetts. Wisconsin I can understand. Razor thin result back in 2022. Hoevde is also personally very wealthy. Pennsylvania is a bit disappointing really. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 24, 2024 9:55:41 GMT
Some interesting difference between Likely and Registered voters here
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Post by sanders on Oct 24, 2024 9:58:37 GMT
Some interesting difference between Likely and Registered voters here Reverse coattails effect - could Casey save Harris here? |
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Post by timmullen on Oct 24, 2024 9:58:58 GMT
Some interesting difference between Likely and Registered voters here Pretty unusual, they’re usually the opposite with LVs tending to be more Democratic than RVs. |
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Oct 24, 2024 12:04:55 GMT
Two separate PA polls.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 24, 2024 12:09:40 GMT
There does seem to be some GOP momentum in Pennsylvania |
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Post by sanders on Oct 24, 2024 16:00:25 GMT
Some decent Pennsylvania bellwether county polling. Northampton County is a decent weathervane. The 2020 result was narrower than Biden's statewide margin (0.7% to 1.2%). Lehigh was a bit more emphatically pro-Biden. Trump didn't win it and didn't really get close to winning it. It's trended leftward since the 1980s and isn't comparable to somewhere like Luzerne County which has bolted rightward or the more classically marginal Northampton County.
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Post by rcronald on Oct 26, 2024 13:35:55 GMT
John Fetterman:
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Post by sanders on Oct 26, 2024 14:03:39 GMT
No, no Fetterman isn’t closeted Republican. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 26, 2024 14:11:15 GMT
No, no Fetterman isn’t closeted Republican. I’d agree, he’s just acknowledging Trump’s strengths, which might not be a popular thing to do publicly on the Democrat side but Fetterman has already shown that he’s not really bothered about upsetting some people |
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Post by sanders on Oct 26, 2024 14:16:31 GMT
No, no Fetterman isn’t closeted Republican. I’d agree, he’s just acknowledging Trump’s strengths, which might not be a popular thing to do publicly on the Democrat side but Fetterman has already shown that he’s not really bothered about upsetting some people I have issues with Fetterman, but he got the job done and flipped a seat the Republicans had held since 1968. Biden won Pennsylvania by 1% and Fetterman won by 5. Clearly, he possibly tapped into voters others didn’t. Fetterman is certainly more supportive of legal weed than Trump and his acolytes. He called legalising weed a political bazooka. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 26, 2024 14:21:42 GMT
I’d agree, he’s just acknowledging Trump’s strengths, which might not be a popular thing to do publicly on the Democrat side but Fetterman has already shown that he’s not really bothered about upsetting some people I have issues with Fetterman, but he got the job done and flipped a seat the Republicans had held since 1968. Biden won Pennsylvania by 1% and Fetterman won by 5. Clearly, he possibly tapped into voters others didn’t. Fetterman is certainly more supportive of legal weed than Trump and his acolytes. He called legalising weed a political bazooka. Although it’s still a couple of cycles away I imagine he’ll face a primary challenge from the left over Israel/Gaza, so it’ll be interesting to see how that goes |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 26, 2024 14:35:15 GMT
I have issues with Fetterman, but he got the job done and flipped a seat the Republicans had held since 1968. Biden won Pennsylvania by 1% and Fetterman won by 5. Clearly, he possibly tapped into voters others didn’t. Fetterman is certainly more supportive of legal weed than Trump and his acolytes. He called legalising weed a political bazooka. Although it’s still a couple of cycles away I imagine he’ll face a primary challenge from the left over Israel/Gaza, so it’ll be interesting to see how that goes The Philadelphia suburbs have a large Jewish population and are generally regarded as pro-Israel (even progressive law makers from the area are pretty aggressively pro-Israel), and the rest of PA has way too many moderate/conservative Dems for him to be in actual danger. |
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Post by sanders on Oct 26, 2024 17:30:19 GMT
Although it’s still a couple of cycles away I imagine he’ll face a primary challenge from the left over Israel/Gaza, so it’ll be interesting to see how that goes The Philadelphia suburbs have a large Jewish population and are generally regarded as pro-Israel (even progressive law makers from the area are pretty aggressively pro-Israel), and the rest of PA has way too many moderate/conservative Dems for him to be in actual danger. Exactly. I think Fetterman essentially approached AIPAC and asked them what they line they wanted him to spout to avoid them endorsing Conor Lamb over him in the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate primary. Now I think Fetterman is an excellent candidate who would’ve won the nomination on merit whatever his views on Israel, and the election, but this seems to be the approach he took. I can respect what Fetterman did - unlike AOC, Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar etc, he doesn’t represent a safe Democratic seat. It’s even more nuanced than that, and Fetterman is pro-fracking among other things. |
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Post by rcronald on Oct 26, 2024 18:16:09 GMT
The Philadelphia suburbs have a large Jewish population and are generally regarded as pro-Israel (even progressive law makers from the area are pretty aggressively pro-Israel), and the rest of PA has way too many moderate/conservative Dems for him to be in actual danger. Exactly. I think Fetterman essentially approached AIPAC and asked them what the line they wanted him to spout to avoid them endorsing Conor Lamb over him in the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate primary. Now I think Fetterman is an excellent candidate who would’ve won the nomination on merit whatever his views on Israel, and the election, but this seems to be the approach he took. I can respect what Fetterman did - unlike AOC, Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar etc, he doesn’t represent a safe Democratic seat. It’s even more nuanced than that, and Fetterman is pro-fracking among other things. Fetterman understands his state well, and unlike Bob Casey, he doesn’t have a reputation of flip-flopping on everything. |
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Post by irish observer on Nov 4, 2024 9:40:30 GMT
Anyone feeling that it may all come down to the Keystone state? Reminiscent of a 2024 political battle like Gettysburg on the plains of Pennsylvania. I think it all comes down to this state.
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Post by batman on Nov 4, 2024 9:49:45 GMT
That's the general feeling amongst many, but it's worth noting that if you were to accept all the findings of the last NYT/Siena polls, and concede that Trump wins both the states which were tied in the polls, which included Pennsylvania, Harris would still be elected President with or without NE-2. There is a path to victory for Harris without Pennsylvania, but I don't think there is for Trump. That path however is a dangerous one to tread.
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