Michigan

[stb12]

15 electoral college votes

[markgoodair]

On September 6, the Michigan State Appeals Court reversed the lower court and construed Michigan law to let Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., withdraw from the ballot. Kennedy v Secretary of State, 372349. There is a law that has a restrictive and discriminatory deadline for minor parties to withdraw earlier than major parties. But the Appeals Court said that restrictive law, saying Kennedy should have withdrawn in August, only applies to candidates for state office, not federal office.

[sanders]

There are three interesting Houses races in Michigan. John James's seat (MI-10) narrowly went to the GOP in 2022, but he is vastly, and I mean vastly, outspending Carl Marlinga, his opponent. You also have the 7th and 8th Districts, with Elissa Slotkin retiring to run for Senate (likely successfully against ex-Congressman Mike Rogers). I think Democrats will carry the state and probably win all three of these battlegrounds. Michigan's 3rd District (Grand Rapids) was Republican until 2023, but without moderate GOP'er Peter Meijer, it's not going to flip back. Scholten has built up some incumbency there too.

[markgoodair]

On September 9, the Michigan Supreme Court issued an opinion in Robert F. Kennedy, Jr v Secretary of State, 167545, putting him back on the ballot against his wishes. The midlevel court had allowed his to withdraw, but now he can’t withdraw. However, the opinion was a victory for the Natural Law Party of Michigan, which had nominated him and did not want him to withdraw.

[sanders]

This is what ballots look like. I would struggle with my nystagmus. 'Straight party ticket' makes it easier. 

[J.G.Harston]

Sept 12, 2024 15:15:01 GMT sanders said:

This is what ballots look like. I would struggle with my nystagmus. 'Straight party ticket' makes it easier. 

Or, a seperate ballot paper for each seperate election, like wot civilised places use.

[mattbewilson]

What happened if I voted Dem and then voted for Trump. Spoilt?

[sanders]

The Green Party may win Dearborn. It's a heavily Arab American city. MI is about 3% Muslim nowadays.

[The Bishop]

I think that one falls very much into the "believe it when I see it" category - though that is partly because I do consider Stein a ridiculous crank.

[lackeroftalent]

Sept 12, 2024 21:47:25 GMT mattbewilson said:

What happened if I voted Dem and then voted for Trump. Spoilt?

I seem to recall that would be a vote for Trump.

If you indicate a Straight Party ticket then that is a vote for the party's candidate in each race unless you vote otherwise in a section, in which case that overrides for that race only.

[sanders]

Sept 13, 2024 11:57:11 GMT The Bishop said:

I think that one falls very much into the "believe it when I see it" category - though that is partly because I do consider Stein a ridiculous crank.

Many single issue ‘Gaza voters’ on both sides of the Atlantic.

[WJ]

Michigan will now process absentee ballots before election day, which will hopefully mean they will be quicker to get a result than in 2020 and it's predicted to lessen any red-mirage/blue-wave effects.

Wayne County (Detroit) reckons it will have 90-95% of their votes counted by 11pm local time.

[stb12]

Battleground House race (again unsure on pollster reliability)

[sanders]

Oct 22, 2024 11:01:35 GMT stb12 said:

Battleground House race (again unsure on pollster reliability)

Trump is generally holding up here. It is fairly blue collar suburbia. However, this bodes well for Harris. Most Wolverine State voters currently are women: 

[sanders]

No wonder polls shift so much. I never thought Trump could win here by anything approaching 4%. A 3% lead would match Biden's 2020 result.  

[sanders]

This would be a Democratic improvement. They are only a B-rated pollster. Still, this is encouraging for Harris.

[sanders]

Republican Fred Upton, Michigan Congressman (1987 - 2023), who voted to impeach Truimp in 2021, endorses Kamala Harris. Funnily enough, I once interviewed Upton's then Trump-backed primary challenger, Steve Carra in 2022. He didn't end up running but the cult of Trump ran deep.

[iain]

Something to keep in mind:

[sanders]

Oct 26, 2024 23:10:01 GMT iain said:

Something to keep in mind:

Key words here to remember, IMO. "Despite a Democratic landslide" (in Michigan). Harris can win without Arabs here. Biden won by 3% in 2020. That's something of a cushion here. Polls suggest Harris has rebounded statewide. A lot of Muslims back Stein. That in itself doesn't help Trump. Obviously it helps narrow the margin. Walz being from Minnesota may help. Whereas Shapiro probably wold have hindered. That's because Walz accepted uncommitted delegates. Shapiro seemed quite opposed to protestors. Walz helps with the rust belt. He may make the difference, actually. Obama still has pulling power too. 

[sanders]