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Post by markgoodair on Oct 29, 2024 9:20:52 GMT
On Friday, October 25, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. asked the U.S. Supreme Court to let him withdraw from the ballot. Kennedy v Benson, 24A405. The basis is that the Secretary of State restored him to the ballot after the statutory deadline. The Michigan State Court of Appeals had let him withdraw, but then the State Supreme Court contramanded that. However the State Supreme Court order came down after the statutory deadline to change the list of candidates, and the State Supreme Court did not give permission for the Secretary of State to ignore that deadline.
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Post by aargauer on Oct 29, 2024 9:23:33 GMT
This is the state I find hardest to call. I suspect it will be very close.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 29, 2024 17:00:40 GMT
This is the state I find hardest to call. I suspect it will be very close. |
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Post by markgoodair on Oct 30, 2024 9:19:09 GMT
On October 29, the U.S. Supreme Court denied Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s request to withdraw from the Michigan ballot. There is no opinion. The vote was 8-1. Justice Neil Gorsuch dissented. He only wrote a sentence, and said his dissent mirrors the dissent in this same case in the Sixth Circuit.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 30, 2024 9:21:44 GMT
A withdrawn candidate shouldn’t get many votes at all but considering the tight margins expected it may still have some sort of impact
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johng
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Post by johng on Oct 30, 2024 11:17:20 GMT
This is the state I find hardest to call. I suspect it will be very close. *Poll snip*
That's just one poll of the several over the last few days though. But basically all show it is neck and neck and well within the MOE for either campaign.
AtlasIntel - Trump +1 Quantus Insights - Harris +1 Insider Advantage - Trump +1 R+W - Harris +1 Emerson - Trump +1 Susquehanna (Spoiling the cycle) - Harris +5 Patriot Polling - Trump +1 CCES/ Yougov - Harris +5
The polls have generally shown Slotkin (Dem) running a few points ahead of Harris.
It'll be a nail biter, that's for certain.
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Post by sanders on Oct 31, 2024 6:19:56 GMT
That's just one poll of the several over the last few days though. But basically all show it is neck and neck and well within the MOE for either campaign.
AtlasIntel - Trump +1 Quantus Insights - Harris +1 Insider Advantage - Trump +1 R+W - Harris +1 Emerson - Trump +1 Susquehanna (Spoiling the cycle) - Harris +5 Patriot Polling - Trump +1 CCES/ Yougov - Harris +5
The polls have generally shown Slotkin (Dem) running a few points ahead of Harris.
It'll be a nail biter, that's for certain.
Include the pollster ratings if you're going to post these. AtlasIntel: 2.7/3Quantus Insights: not rated by 538Insider Advantage: 2/3Redfield & Wilton: 1.8/3Emerson: 2.9/3Susquehanna: 2.3/3Patriot Polling: 1.1/3YouGov: 3/3Average Emerson and YouGov - Harris leads. It's not really "a nail biter". Harris is the favourite in Michigan. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 31, 2024 8:08:00 GMT
That's just one poll of the several over the last few days though. But basically all show it is neck and neck and well within the MOE for either campaign.
AtlasIntel - Trump +1 Quantus Insights - Harris +1 Insider Advantage - Trump +1 R+W - Harris +1 Emerson - Trump +1 Susquehanna (Spoiling the cycle) - Harris +5 Patriot Polling - Trump +1 CCES/ Yougov - Harris +5
The polls have generally shown Slotkin (Dem) running a few points ahead of Harris.
It'll be a nail biter, that's for certain.
Include the pollster ratings if you're going to post these. AtlasIntel: 2.7/3Quantus Insights: not rated by 538Insider Advantage: 2/3Redfield & Wilton: 1.8/3Emerson: 2.9/3Susquehanna: 2.3/3Patriot Polling: 1.1/3YouGov: 3/3Average Emerson and YouGov - Harris leads. It's not really "a nail biter". Harris is the favourite in Michigan. She may have an edge but I literally posted an Emerson poll up thread that shows a dead heat And while the ratings are useful to consider they aren’t the be all and end all |
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Post by sanders on Oct 31, 2024 8:18:02 GMT
Include the pollster ratings if you're going to post these. AtlasIntel: 2.7/3Quantus Insights: not rated by 538Insider Advantage: 2/3Redfield & Wilton: 1.8/3Emerson: 2.9/3Susquehanna: 2.3/3Patriot Polling: 1.1/3YouGov: 3/3Average Emerson and YouGov - Harris leads. It's not really "a nail biter". Harris is the favourite in Michigan. She may have an edge but I literally posted an Emerson poll up thread that shows a dead heat And while the ratings are useful to consider they aren’t the be all and end all They're not, but Patriot Polling, seriously? It's not a credible outfit, whatsoever. 538 is useful - it separates the wheat from the chaff. And that's important. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 31, 2024 8:31:32 GMT
She may have an edge but I literally posted an Emerson poll up thread that shows a dead heat And while the ratings are useful to consider they aren’t the be all and end all They're not, but Patriot Polling, seriously? It's not a credible outfit, whatsoever. 538 is useful - it separates the wheat from the chaff. And that's important. I do look at 538, however when you consider that those seen as the more reliable pollsters tended to underestimate Trump the last two cycles then it’s not straightforward. I’m confident most of the evidence indicates another close race in Michigan, if it ends up something such as Harris winning by five points like a couple of outliers have said then I’ll hold my hands up |
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Post by sanders on Oct 31, 2024 8:35:50 GMT
They're not, but Patriot Polling, seriously? It's not a credible outfit, whatsoever. 538 is useful - it separates the wheat from the chaff. And that's important. I do look at 538, however when you consider that those seen as the more reliable pollsters tended to underestimate Trump the last two cycles then it’s not straightforward. I’m confident most of the evidence indicates another close race in Michigan, if it ends up something such as Harris winning by five points like a couple of outliers have said then I’ll hold my hands up Fair points well made all round. Many crap ones overestimated him too. I'm thinking of Trafalgar for one! At least they're not used here. But Patriot Polling is just funny. The name just screams right-wing bias. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Oct 31, 2024 8:49:51 GMT
I do look at 538, however when you consider that those seen as the more reliable pollsters tended to underestimate Trump the last two cycles then it’s not straightforward. I’m confident most of the evidence indicates another close race in Michigan, if it ends up something such as Harris winning by five points like a couple of outliers have said then I’ll hold my hands up Fair points well made all round. Many crap ones overestimated him too. I'm thinking of Trafalgar for one! At least they're not used here. But Patriot Polling is just funny. The name just screams right-wing bias. You certainly get quite a bit of partisan polling in the US, there’s some Democrat ones also but more GOP ones do seem to pop up in fairness When Rasmussen Reports were removed from the 538 averaging Nate Silver who had left 538 by then actually disagreed with it and said they should be judged on the accuracy of their results which hadn’t been great but not that far out there that they had to be excluded |
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Post by sanders on Nov 1, 2024 11:59:41 GMT
Cook moves Slotkin's seat towards Republicans. It's open (she's running for Senate). Biden won the seat by 1%. It's somewhat Democrat-trending due to Lancing. It's a bellwether district of sorts. Michigan's got three competitive House seats. The 7th, 8th, and the 10th. The latter (MI-10) is Republican held.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 1, 2024 12:12:28 GMT
Cook moves Slotkin's seat towards Republicans. It's open (she's running for Senate). Biden won the seat by 1%. It's somewhat Democrat-trending due to Lancing. It's a bellwether district of sorts. Michigan's got three competitive House seats. The 7th, 8th, and the 10th. The latter (MI-10) is Republican held. Seems well open for either side to have a majority of the House delegation there Is the seat Peter Meijer lost the primary no longer considered in play at all? |
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Post by sanders on Nov 1, 2024 12:14:19 GMT
Cook moves Slotkin's seat towards Republicans. It's open (she's running for Senate). Biden won the seat by 1%. It's somewhat Democrat-trending due to Lancing. It's a bellwether district of sorts. Michigan's got three competitive House seats. The 7th, 8th, and the 10th. The latter (MI-10) is Republican held. Seems well open for either side to have a majority of the House delegation there Is the seat Peter Meijer lost the primary no longer considered in play at all? The 3rd isn't competitive in 2024. Meijer was moderate enough to win. Republicans insisted on nominating an ideologue. Grand Rapids is pretty Democrat friendly. |
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johng
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Post by johng on Nov 1, 2024 15:12:23 GMT
Detroit having a higher turnout than 2020 would be good news for Harris and certainly not point to disengaged urban or African-American voters.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Nov 1, 2024 15:21:32 GMT
Detroit having a higher turnout than 2020 would be good news for Harris and certainly not point to disengaged urban or African-American voters. But could the Arab American issue counteract it at all? |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 1, 2024 15:27:25 GMT
But clime the Arab American issue counteract it at all? Not many live in Detroit City. The largest concentration is in Dearborn. The strangeness of American local government, again... |
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johng
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Post by johng on Nov 1, 2024 15:29:54 GMT
Detroit having a higher turnout than 2020 would be good news for Harris and certainly not point to disengaged urban or African-American voters. But clime the Arab American issue counteract it at all? There aren't that many Arab-Americans in the city of Detroit. Dearborn is in metro Detroit, but not the city itself.
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johng
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Post by johng on Nov 1, 2024 15:35:57 GMT
But clime the Arab American issue counteract it at all? Not many live in Detroit City. The largest concentration is in Dearborn. The strangeness of American local government, again... Beat me to it! |
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