Local Council By Elections September 12 2024

[sanders]

It seems to be fixed now?

[stb12]

I edited the OP and pasted in Tony's post as quote, everyone ok with that?

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Aug 18, 2024 8:22:02 GMT stb12 said:

I edited the OP and pasted in Tony's post as quote, everyone ok with that?

Aye.

[The Bishop]

Yes, good solution.

But in future can people heed the advice upthread and not start these threads until most if not all the details of that week's byelections are in.

[elinorhelyn]

Don't start the tread until the SOPN is a good rule.

[sanders]

Aug 18, 2024 11:56:48 GMT elinorhelyn said:

Don't start the tread until the SOPN is a good rule.

When the by-election date's confirmed, surely/ 

[batman]

No. The point of these threads has always been to consider each ward when the identity of its candidates is known.

[sanders]

Aug 18, 2024 14:22:06 GMT batman said:

No. The point of these threads has always been to consider each ward when the identity of its candidates is known.

I want to discuss potential winners. I believe we vote for parties. You may disagree with that assertion. You're right insofar parties are unknown. SOPN confirms that so fair enough. The issue here was about completeness. 

[batman]

Well, we have a much better idea who the potential winner is in most wards when we know who's standing. Obviously there are wards which are so safe for a particular party that we know in advance, e.g. the recent by-election in the Bootle constituency for Labour, or let's say Teddington for the Lib Dems in my borough if there were to be a by-election there, but in so many wards we really need to know who's standing. The Tower Hamlets Bow East ward by-election is an excellent example, many would have at least considered forecasting an Aspire win (although Bow is just about that party's weakest area in the borough), but they aren't even standing. Let's keep the existing system.

[Pete Whitehead]

Tony Otim has a semi-official status as the starter of these threads. Other people should leave well alone.

[edgbaston]

Aug 18, 2024 14:58:01 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Tony Otim has a semi-official status as the starter of these threads. Other people should leave well alone.

Does this work on a hereditary basis like the Earl Marshal

[sanders]

Aug 18, 2024 14:58:01 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Tony Otim has a semi-official status as the starter of these threads. Other people should leave well alone.

A well-deserved sinecure for life, yes.

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Aug 18, 2024 14:19:35 GMT sanders said:

Aug 18, 2024 11:56:48 GMT elinorhelyn said:

Don't start the tread until the SOPN is a good rule.

When the by-election date's confirmed, surely/ 

These threads have been curated by many people down the years, and it becomes something of an additional job . Thread curators have their own formats and rules, and if a particular user is known for starting and curating those, other users shouldn't encroach. 

[sanders]

Aug 18, 2024 16:10:01 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

Aug 18, 2024 14:19:35 GMT sanders said:

When the by-election date's confirmed, surely/ 

These threads have been curated by many people down the years, and it becomes something of an additional job . Thread curators have their own formats and rules, and if a particular user is known for starting and curating those, other users shouldn't encroach. 

Reactionary bugger, but I agree here

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Aug 18, 2024 16:12:27 GMT sanders said:

Aug 18, 2024 16:10:01 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

These threads have been curated by many people down the years, and it becomes something of an additional job . Thread curators have their own formats and rules, and if a particular user is known for starting and curating those, other users shouldn't encroach. 

Reactionary bugger, but I agree here

"Reactionary bugger"?

[sanders]

The last Stoke Newington by-election result. Courtesy of the fantastic andrewteale site.

'29th January 2009

Lab 1162 47.8% (+2.5)
Grn 783 32.2% (+3.1)
LD 297 12.2% (-4.6)
C 169 7.0% (-2)
DirDem 20 0.8% (+0.8)

That was a poor Green showing. Labour previously won 45%-29% in 2006.

[carolus]

The Lib Dem position in the Kings Lynn & West Norfolk district is quite strange, in that over the last few years the electoral record when they've actually stood has been surprisingly good, but there seems to be a significant lack of candidates.

In the May 2021 County elections they had candidates in six of twelve divisions with no particular success (a couple of not very close second places).

There were then byelection gains on big swings in Gaywood South (Jul 2021), Gaywood North & Central (Dec 2022), and Freebridge Lynn (Aug 2023). And pretty reasonable performances in the other two byelections.

And in the May 2023 district elections there were a grand total of seven candidates, of whom three were elected, two more were less than twenty votes off, a third was less than forty, and the last was 112 away.
But note, perhaps that the two new DC councillors in 2023 were the same people that won the two Gaywood CC byelections, and one if the narrow misses (in the same ward) was the winner of the original Freebridge Lynn byelection, whose death has triggered this one. The third DC councillor was the losing candidate in one of the other CC byelections.
The NW Norfolk result was alright, too (+6.9%), albeit still fourth. (And of course the candidate was one of double-hatters)

And now no candidate in a defence. It seems a strange situation to have ended up in.

[Chris from Brum]

Aug 18, 2024 15:22:07 GMT edgbaston said:

Aug 18, 2024 14:58:01 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Tony Otim has a semi-official status as the starter of these threads. Other people should leave well alone.

Does this work on a hereditary basis like the Earl Marshal

Hmm, what happens when the Dukedom of Norfolk becomes extinct due to lack of legitimate heirs?

[andrewteale]

Aug 18, 2024 17:47:07 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Aug 18, 2024 15:22:07 GMT edgbaston said:

Does this work on a hereditary basis like the Earl Marshal

Hmm, what happens when the Dukedom of Norfolk becomes extinct due to lack of legitimate heirs?

You end up with a mess like that of the Lord Great Chamberlain, an office which is now divided in varying shares between thirteen different descendants of the 3rd Duke of Ancaster and Kesteven.

[Tony Otim]

Aug 18, 2024 16:51:35 GMT carolus said:

The Lib Dem position in the Kings Lynn & West Norfolk district is quite strange, in that over the last few years the electoral record when they've actually stood has been surprisingly good, but there seems to be a significant lack of candidates.

In the May 2021 County elections they had candidates in six of twelve divisions with no particular success (a couple of not very close second places).

There were then byelection gains on big swings in Gaywood South (Jul 2021), Gaywood North & Central (Dec 2022), and Freebridge Lynn (Aug 2023). And pretty reasonable performances in the other two byelections.

And in the May 2023 district elections there were a grand total of seven candidates, of whom three were elected, two more were less than twenty votes off, a third was less than forty, and the last was 112 away.
But note, perhaps that the two new DC councillors in 2023 were the same people that won the two Gaywood CC byelections, and one if the narrow misses (in the same ward) was the winner of the original Freebridge Lynn byelection, whose death has triggered this one. The third DC councillor was the losing candidate in one of the other CC byelections.
The NW Norfolk result was alright, too (+6.9%), albeit still fourth. (And of course the candidate was one of double-hatters)

And now no candidate in a defence. It seems a strange situation to have ended up in.

I would also note the absence of a Green candidate where the same candidate has stood repeatedly in all recent elections and was the candidate in the GE so is clearly still active. I do, therefore, wonder whether the Greens and possibly Lib Dems are tacitly supporting the indy?