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Post by pg on Aug 15, 2024 16:09:23 GMT
There is also a By Election in the Tower Hamlets ward of Bow East following the resignation of Rachel Blake MP (Cities of London and Westminster. Candidates are:
Robin EDWARDS (Con)
Rupert GEORGE (Green)
Abdi MOHAMED (Lab)
Siobhan PROUDFOOT (Lib Dem)
There is no Aspire candidate.
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 15, 2024 16:18:53 GMT
There is also a By Election in the Tower Hamlets ward of Bow East following the resignation of Rachel Blake MP (Cities of London and Westminster. Candidates are: Robin EDWARDS (Con) Rupert GEORGE (Green) Abdi MOHAMED (Lab) Siobhan PROUDFOOT (Lib Dem) There is no Aspire candidate. There is about 17% Bangladeshi voters - Aspire will not win. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 15, 2024 16:27:03 GMT
There is also a By Election in the Tower Hamlets ward of Bow East following the resignation of Rachel Blake MP (Cities of London and Westminster. Candidates are: Robin EDWARDS (Con) Rupert GEORGE (Green) Abdi MOHAMED (Lab) Siobhan PROUDFOOT (Lib Dem) There is no Aspire candidate. No Aspire might mean the Greens have a chance |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Aug 15, 2024 18:49:51 GMT
It is my understanding as a TH Labour activist that Aspire and the Greens have come to an "understanding" of sorts behind the scenes. Green Cllr Natalie Bienfait of Bow West has been given an Environment Scrutiny Committee position by Mayor Rahman which was widely seen as buying her off.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Aug 15, 2024 23:44:28 GMT
BTW given that the Ferguson Marine ferries are intended for Arran I suspect that the lack of an SNP candidate merely saves them an embarrassing thrashing. I wonder how the old (pre-1983) 'Bute & Northern Ayrshire' voted in 2017 and 2019 - maybe ntyuk1707 can tell us. It was solidly, stolidly blue for many decades. SNP given the seat's inclusion of Ardrossan, Saltcoats and Stevenston which have more electors than the remaining portion of the former constituency and voted 55% Yes to independence in 2014. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Aug 15, 2024 23:56:39 GMT
There’s sure to be a big rise in the Labour vote since 2022 and I’m not sure how it pans out in terms of who wins. May be a stretch for Labour to win in Arran but I don’t think it’s unheard of They must have done well there when North Ayrshire & Arran was a safe Labour area with the Tories in a distant second. Funnily enough Ayrshire North used to be pretty solidly Tory as I recall. Bute & Northern Ayrshire was a Conservative stronghold from 1918 to 1983! And then they won the new 'Cunninghame North' that year, but the area never looked back and flipped to Labour in 1987, before the SNP held it from 2015 to 2024. Even at Holyrood, the Tories don't do all that well. I don't know how much of the Tory strength in 'Bute & Northern Ayrshire' came from Bute as opposed to Northern Ayrshire inc. Arran. One for ntyuk1707 perhaps. I'd stick with my neck out and say that Arran will be an island of blue of a sea of blue. Arran and Dalry are the most Conservative-leaning parts of North Ayrshire & Arran, followed by areas covered by the North Coast and Cumbraes electoral ward. At the general election, I estimate that the Arran ward voted 25.6% Labour, 24.4% Conservative, 24.2% SNP. The ward is likely to be a three-way tossup between Labour, the Greens and an Independent, as Independents topped the poll in Ardrossan & Arran ward in 2007. Support for the Conservatives collapsed across Ayrshire at the general election, so they are unlikely to win the ward on transfers. If they are able to squeak ahead of Labour, the Greens stand a chance of winning the ward due to poor transfers for the Conservatives. If Labour come ahead of the Conservatives, it is likely to be a Labour or Independent win through supportive transfers from Conservative voters. |
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riccimarsh
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Post by riccimarsh on Aug 16, 2024 0:10:01 GMT
There is also a By Election in the Tower Hamlets ward of Bow East following the resignation of Rachel Blake MP (Cities of London and Westminster. Candidates are: Robin EDWARDS (Con) Rupert GEORGE (Green) Abdi MOHAMED (Lab) Siobhan PROUDFOOT (Lib Dem) There is no Aspire candidate. They aspired to have a candidate… alas… |
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 16, 2024 4:10:17 GMT
It is my understanding as a TH Labour activist that Aspire and the Greens have come to an "understanding" of sorts behind the scenes. Green Cllr Natalie Bienfait of Bow West has been given an Environment Scrutiny Committee position by Mayor Rahman which was widely seen as buying her off. Speaking of these sorts of things. The Greens aren't contesting London Fields. They could have won that ward. They are all in on Stokey. That's a smart move I think. Hackney Labour beat them narrowly twice. If we remember De Beauvoir's results. Hackney Labour aren't going down easily. I know this from the Mayoralty. They had by-elections on 4 May ofc. The Khan vote helped them win. I think otherwise they'd have lost. Cazenove went Conservative back in January. Tories could sweep there in 2026. De Beauvoir is tough for the Greens. The Labour vote is fairly stubborn. There's a lot of council housing. That's also true in London Fields. The Blackstone Estate may decide it. I don't think it's owner-occupied much. The house prices are eye-watering there. We tried buying a Dalston one-bed. Not a chance in hell, sadly. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 16, 2024 12:31:31 GMT
It is my understanding as a TH Labour activist that Aspire and the Greens have come to an "understanding" of sorts behind the scenes. Green Cllr Natalie Bienfait of Bow West has been given an Environment Scrutiny Committee position by Mayor Rahman which was widely seen as buying her off. Well done,Bienfait. I'll get mon manteau. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 17, 2024 15:40:24 GMT
Still working on full summary, but at least one of the 10 seats up this week will be changing hands as LIb Dems are not defending Freebridge Lynn (Norfolk CC)
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 17, 2024 15:47:12 GMT
Regarding the lack of SNP in Arran, from the Daily Record:
"Cunninghame North SNP spokesman, Kenny Gibson, said: "The intended SNP candidate withdrew for personal reasons at short notice and in the time left available, the branch was unable to select a replacement."
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 17, 2024 16:07:28 GMT
Regarding the lack of SNP in Arran, from the Daily Record: "Cunninghame North SNP spokesman, Kenny Gibson, said: "The intended SNP candidate withdrew for personal reasons at short notice and in the time left available, the branch was unable to select a replacement." SNP have too much power anyway. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 17, 2024 17:53:55 GMT
CAMBRIDGE DC; Romsey (Ind elected as Lab resigned)
Candidates:
GARDINER-SMITH, Beth (Labour)
KARIMJEE, Zak (Green)
NELSON, Rob (Conservative)
WALMSLEY, John (Liberal Democrat)
2024: Lab 1433; Grn 524; LD 307; Ind 273; Con 208
2023: Lab 1219; Grn 555; Con 514; LD 389
2022: Lab 1548; Grn 486; LD 416; Con 215
2019: Lab 1575, 1423, 1378; Grn 643, 632, 615; LD 526, 406, 375; Con 337, 332, 248
Vacancy is for the 2023-27 term. Rob Walmsley stood here for the Lib Dems in every election on current boundaries, whilst Rob Nelson was the Conservative candidate here in May. Beth Gardiner-Smith (Lab) stood in Queen Edith’s in May, whilst Zak Karimjee stood for the Greens in Petersfield.
Current Council: Lab 25; LD 10; Grn 5; Con 1; 1 vacancy
GATESHEAD MBC; Bridges (Lab died)
Candidates:
AIBI, Jonathan Shlomo (Liberal Democrat)
AYRE, David James (Reform UK)
CABRAL, Rachel Mary (Green)
STERLING, Paul (Conservative)
WAUGH, Robert Lee (Labour)
2024: Lab 871; Grn 581; Con 191; LD 136
2023: Lab 904; Con 248; Grn 223; LD 177
2022: Lab 1013; Con 271; LD 253
2021: Lab 916; Con 357; Grn 237; LD 138
2019: Lab 832; LD 316; Con 209
2018: Lab 1012; Con 276; LD 131; Grn 103
2016: Lab 989; Con 192; Grn 163; LD 134
2015: Lab 1910; Con 479; UKIP 453; Grn 342; LD 190
2014: Lab 1065; UKIP 404; Con 149; LD 126
2012: Lab 1112; LD 176; Con 148
2011: lab 1353; LD 293; Con 266
2010: Lab 1678; LD 842; Con 398; BNP 174
2008: Lab 840; LD 317; Con 232; BNP 222
2007: Lab 888; LD 352; BNP 213; Con 193
2006: Lab 858; LD 323; BNP 219; Con 179
2004: Lab 968, 949, 925; LD 413, 391, 346; BNP 277; Con 206, 195, 172
Vacancy is for the seat last contested in 2023, but all-outs on new boundaries will apply in 2026. Rachel Cabral was the Green candidate here in May and contested Gateshead Central & Whickham (which contains this ward) at the General Election. David Ayre was the Reform candidate in Blaydon & Consett at the General Election. Also in May, Paul Sterling stood for the Conservatives and Robert Waugh for Labour in Low Fell.
Current Council: Lab 47; LD 18; 1 vacancy
HACKNEY LBC; London Fields (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
BYRNE, Sarah (Independent)
FRIEND, Peter Ivor (Liberal Democrat)
GOOCH, George (Labour)
MIKOLAJEWSKA, Diana Maria (Conservative)
TAYLOR, Olivia Amber (Workers Party)
2022: Lab 2156, 1741, 1685; Grn 915, 498, 474; LD 464
2018: Lab 2378, 1972, 1933; Grn 587, 527, 475; LD 303, 280, 208; Con 257, 231, 202
2014: Lab 2153, 1915, 1891; Grn 857, 761, 625; LD 331, 180, 138; Con 321, 313, 297; TUSC 188, 120
Peter Friend stood for the Lib Dems in Stamford Hill West in 2022 and Diana Mikolajewska for the Conservatives in Clissold.
HACKNEY LBC; Stoke Newington (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
BUI, Tan (Independent)
DAVIES-KHAN, Zak (Labour)
DAVIS, Liam (Green)
GREGG, Tareke Jay Antonio (Conservative)
MAURSETH-CAHILL, Thrusie (Liberal Democrat)
2022: Lab 2350, 2221, 1831; Grn 1332, 1015, 580; LD 407; Con 289, 260, 234; TUSC 120
2018: Lab 2605, 2581, 2111; Grn 991, 748, 627; LD 446, 305, 299; Con 232, 184, 167; TUSC 88
May 16by: Lab 3241; Grn 1132; Con 450; LD 303; TUSC 136
2014: Lab 2576, 2330, 2297; Grn 1270, 1143, 1027; Con 319, 224, 212; LD 278, 206, 190; TUSC 173
Thrusie Maurseth Cahill (LD) has stood in both recent De Beauvoir by-elections and was also the LD candidate here in 2022. Tareke Gregg (Con) stood in De Beauvoir this May.
Current Council: Lab 44; Con 6; Hackney Ind Soc Grp 3; Grn 2; 2 vacancies
MILTON KEYNES UA; Bletchley East (Lab resigned following election as MP for Milton Keynes Central)
Candidates:
BRADY, Ray (Independent)
FRENCH, Joe (Green)
MARLOW, James Richard Alan (Conservative)
McCABE, Sean (Liberal Democrat)
SAINT-CLAIR, Alfred (Heritage)
SODEN, Saskia (Labour)
2024: Lab 1614; Con 604; Ind 316; Grn 228; LD 166
2023: Lab 1602; Con 716; LD 191; Grn 157; RefUK 154
2022: Lab 1607; Con 951; LD 275; Grn 256
2021: Lab 1515; Con 1332; Grn 303; Ind 225; LD 98; UKIP 83
2019: Lab 1176; Con 796; Grn 473; LD 139
Jul 18by: Lab 1355; Con 1026; Grn 131; UKIP 101; LD 50
2018: Lab 1483; Con 1218; Grn 249; LD 154
2016: Lab 1434, 1088; UKIP 972; Con 872, 659; LD 190, 130
2015: Lab 2105; Con 1950; UKIP 1203; Grn 304; LD 239
2014: Lab 1175, 1078, 1056; UKIP 1077, 852; Con 899; Grn 444, 412, 316; LD 121, 97
Vacancy is for the 2023-27 term. Ray Brady (Ind) stood in the Buckingham & Bletchley constituency at the recent General Election, whilst Alfred Saint-Clair (Heritage) stood in Milton Keynes Central. Brady stood in Loughton & Shenley ward in May (having also contested the by-election there the previous year), whilst Saint Clair stood in Broughton. James Marlow (Con) and Sean McCabe (LD) stood in this ward in May and also in 2023 and 2022, with McCabe also having stood here in 2021. Joe French (Grn) stood here in 2022 and in Central Milton Keynes this May, whilst Saskia Soden (Lab) stood in Newport Pagnell South.
Current Council: Lab 29; LD 18; Con 9; 1 vacancy
NEWCASTLE-UPON-TYNE MBC; North Jesmond (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
ALLEN, Peter John (Liberal Democrat)
BUCHANAN, Callum (Labour)
DAWES, Stephen Callum (Conservative)
EL-HAMRI, Anas Thomas (Reform UK)
NAQVI, Shehla (Green)
PANTON, Liz (Party of Women)
2024: LD 995; Lab 683; Grn 262; Con 127
2023: LD 1322, 1276; Lab 567, 512; Grn 179, 135; Con 79, 73
2022: Lab 885; LD 845; Grn 151; Con 138; RefUK 28
2021: Lab 850; LD 800; Grn 319; Con 245
2019: LD 1018; Lab 577; Grn 267; Con 169
2018: Lab 917, 834, 746; LD 822, 725, 707; Con 282, 273, 247; Grn 262
Vacancy is for the 2023-27 term. Shehla Naqvi (Grn) has stood here for the last 3 elections and also in 2018. Stephen Dawes (Con) has stood here the last 2 years. Liz Panton (PoW) contested Newcastle Upon Tyne East & Wallsend (which does not contain this ward) at the General Election .
Current Council: Lab 45; LD 22; Ind 4; Newc Ind 3; Grn 2; Con 1; 1 vacancy
NORFOLK CC; Freebridge Lynn (Lib Dem died)
Candidates:
LAMBERT, Wilf (Labour)
LAW, Jason Philip (Conservative)
RING, Simon John (Independent)
Aug 23by: LD 669; Con 539; Grn 418; Lab 115
2021: Con 1670; Grn 510; Lab 403
2017: Con 1535; Grn 483; Lab 353; LD 182; UKIP 130
2013: ConNORTH 917; Grn 773; UKIP 589; Lab 389; LD 76
2009: Con 1690; LD 431; Grn 385; Lab 347; BNP 248
2005: Con 2670; Lab 1345; LD 1041
Simon Ring is one of the current district councillors for The Woottons ward (which is in this division). Wilf Lambert (Lab) stood in Gaywood North Bank ward (not in this division) in 2023 and Kings Lynn North & Central division in 2021.
Current Council: Con 54; Lab 10; LD 10; Grn 4; Ind (non-aligned) 3; Ind 2;
NORTH AYRSHIRE UA; Arran (Con resigned)
Candidates:
CURRIE, Charles (Labour)
McMASTER, James Andrew (Independent)
SMITH, Mackenzie (Conservative)
TAYLOR, Matt (Liberal Democrat)
THOMSON, Carole (Reform UK)
WILKINSON, Neil Alexander(Green)
2022: Con 788; SNP 625; Ind 305, 229; Lab 243; Grn 241
None of the candidates seem to have any track record locally, but I would guess James McMaster might be connected to Ellen McMaster – elected for the SNP in the old Ardrossan and Arran ward, before defecting to Alba and coming last as an indy here in 2022.
Current Council: SNP 12; Lab 10; Con 8; Ind 2; 1 vacancy
NORTH NORFOLK DC; North Walsham Market Cross (Ind elected as Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
DIXON, Liz (Green)
GINBEY, Tracey Michala (Conservative)
GRAY, Mal (Liberal Democrat)
SHAW, Rebecca Sarah (Labour)
2023: LD 427; Con 318; Lab 103
2019: LD 486; Con 216; Lab 59
Liz Dixon was the Green candidate in North Norfolk at the General Election, whilst Tracey Ginbey stood for the Conservatives in the North Walsham East by-election on the same day. Rebecca Shaw was the Labour candidate here in 2023, when Dixon stood in Happisburgh and Ginbey in North Walsham East.
Current Council: LD 24; Con 13; Ind Grp 2; 1 vacancy
TOWER HAMLETS LBC; Bow East (Lab resigned following election as MP for Cities of London & Westminster)
Candidates:
EDWARDS, Robin William (Conservative)
GEORGE, Rupert (Green)
MOHAMED, Abdi (Labour)
PROUDFOOT, Siobhan Linzi (Liberal Democrat)
2022: Lab 2800, 2728, 2341; Aspire 1324, 1228, 1207; Grn 964, 910; LD 506, 285, 282; Con 336, 291, 247
2018: Lab 2789, 2644, 2482; Grn 591, 464, 416; Aspire 503, 338, 329; PATH 390; LD 366, 346, 342; Con 358, 345, 258
2014: Lab 2611, 2308, 2023; TH1st 989, 977, 774; GRn 935, 651; Con 520, 496, 455; LD 449; TUSC 221; Red Flag Anti-Corruption 129
Robin Edwards was the top Conservative here in 2022 and also stood in 2018. In 2022, Rupert George (Grn) stood in Bethnal Green Eas and Siobhan Proudfoot (LD) in Bromley North.
Current Council: Aspire 24 + mayor; Lab 16; Ind 2; Con 1; Grn 1; 1 vacancy
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 17, 2024 17:54:53 GMT
Perhaps stb12 or one of his colleagues could bump that to the top of the thread to give greater clarity... |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 17, 2024 20:36:12 GMT
I’m trying to work out if that’s possible actually You could just copy and paste the whole text of the list into the first post at the top of the thread, as if jimboo2017 wrote it |
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 17, 2024 22:53:36 GMT
I’m trying to work out if that’s possible actually Please do - this thread is fucked. |
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