Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 6, 2024 11:25:07 GMT
My LD contact at the count indicating not to expect any surprises. Indy possibly second in KTS The Independents probably saved Labour's bacon. We've seen this happen before. Beckton vibes here, I must say. Not on those figures - Labour would have won with or without the indies. |
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrewp on Sept 6, 2024 11:26:47 GMT
Camden percentages
Camden Square
Lab 47.7% (-27.8)
Ind 16.8% new
Green 13,7% new
LD 9.1% (-5)
Ind 7,7% new
Con 4.9% (-5.5)
Kentish Town South
Lab 46.8% (-12)
Green 22.7% (+1.1)
Ind 20.1% new
Con 5.4% (-2.4)
LD 5 % (-3)
No TUSC from before
Kilburn
Lab 51,5% (-15.2)
Con 22.3% (+4.2)
Green 17.5% new
LD 8.7% (-6.5)
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 6, 2024 11:36:03 GMT
My LD contact at the count indicating not to expect any surprises. Indy possibly second in KTS The Independents probably saved Labour's bacon. We've seen this happen before. Beckton vibes here, I must say. Labour won these seats a bit more comfortably in the end. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 6, 2024 11:36:46 GMT
An update on the statistics for the by elections held in this local electoral year, following the May 2024 local elections.
Following the 8 elections held on the 3rd & 5th September, there have now been 99 ordinary by elections since 2nd May 2024.
The Conservatives have defended 24- Held 17 and lost 7, 5 to Labour, 1 to RefUK and 1 to an Independent (retention rate 71%) and have gained 6
Labour have defended 54- held 49 and lost 5, 2 to the Greens, 2 to the Conservatives and 1 to the Liberal Democrats ( retention rate 91%) and have gained 9
The Lib Dems have defended 12, held 7 and lost 5 - 2 each to Labour and the Conservatives and 1 to the SNP ( retention rate 58%) ) and have gained 1
The Greens have defended 2, held 2 ( retention rate 100%) and have gained 2
RefUK have gained. 1 seat
SNP have gained 1 seat
There have been 7 by elections for a seat previously won by an Independent, 3 were won by another Independent, 2 were gained by the Conservatives and 2 by Labour, and an Independent has gained 1 seat
Overall totals and net changes
Con 23 (-1)
Lab 58 (+4)
LD 8 (-4)
Green 4 (+2)
Ind 4 (-3)
RefUK 1 (+1)
SNP 1 (+1)
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Sept 6, 2024 11:42:04 GMT
Yes, Labour didn't really need their bacon saving there. Some posters may be overestimating Labour's unpopularity, on more than one side of the political fence. Labour won't be too displeased with these results at all, with the glaring exception of Longbeck, and that might just be a reversion to the norm, though I don't know the area well enough to agree or disagree with that verdict. Brian Silvester's persistent candidatures are not doing his cause any good in Crewe.
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Post by sanders on Sept 6, 2024 11:44:40 GMT
The Independents probably saved Labour's bacon. We've seen this happen before. Beckton vibes here, I must say. Labour won these seats a bit more comfortably in the end. They did with big swings against. The anti-Labour vote was very disorganised. Hackney will be a bit different. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 6, 2024 11:46:03 GMT
Low turnout byelections with Indies standing when they didn't in 2022 (in two of them anyway)
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Post by gwynthegriff on Sept 6, 2024 11:56:41 GMT
The Independents probably saved Labour's bacon. We've seen this happen before. Beckton vibes here, I must say. Not on those figures - Labour would have won with or without the indies. You and your ... facts!  |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 6, 2024 11:58:35 GMT
MERTHYR TYDFIL Bedlnog and Trelewis PRESTON, Gill (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 411 DROZD, Megan (Independent / Annibynnol) 314 HUGHES, Naomi (Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales) 83 DAWSON, Edward John Welsh (Conservative Party Candidate) 24 SEARL, Richard (Independent / Annibynnol) 11 This would have been enough to flip the council to Labour, had a couple of their councillors not jumped ship since the 2022 elections. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Sept 6, 2024 12:00:42 GMT
Brian Silvester's persistent candidatures are not doing his cause any good in Crewe. You'd need a heart of stone not to laugh. But a man needs a hobby. Though getting beaten in elections three times a year seems an odd one ... |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Sept 6, 2024 12:09:29 GMT
MERTHYR TYDFIL Bedlnog and Trelewis PRESTON, Gill (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 411 DROZD, Megan (Independent / Annibynnol) 314 HUGHES, Naomi (Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales) 83 DAWSON, Edward John Welsh (Conservative Party Candidate) 24 SEARL, Richard (Independent / Annibynnol) 11 This would have been enough to flip the council to Labour, had a couple of their councillors not jumped ship since the 2022 elections. don't you start flipping well flipping too. Leave the flipping to sanders since he insists on using US political jargon. |
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jamesdoyle
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Post by jamesdoyle on Sept 6, 2024 12:24:18 GMT
GWBWI
Lab +80
Con +40
LDm +17
Grn +16
All shall have prizes. But some will have bigger prizes than others.
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Post by sanders on Sept 6, 2024 12:27:12 GMT
Camden percentages Camden Square Lab 47.7% (-27.8) Ind 16.8% new Green 13,7% new LD 9.1% (-5) Ind 7,7% new Con 4.9% (-5.5) Kentish Town South Lab 46.8% (-12) Green 22.7% (+1.1) Ind 20.1% new Con 5.4% (-2.4) LD 5 % (-3) Holborn & St Pancras 2024 Lab 48.9% (-17.4) Ind (Feinstein) 18.9% Green 10.4% (+6.4%) Con 7.2% Ref 6.1% LD 5.8% (-6.5) Ind (Ali) 1.6% Others 1.1% So, not much headway for independents compared to the General Election. Labour's vote is broadly where it was in July. The Tory result in Kilburn is, all things considered, pretty good for that party in that particular ward. |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Sept 6, 2024 12:44:05 GMT
they seem to have taken a few votes mostly off the LDs. I presume that the latter didn't campaign but that at least the Tories did a bit. It's close to South Hampstead where the Tories also had a decent by-election result a little while ago (though Labour held on).
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Post by sanders on Sept 6, 2024 12:45:08 GMT
they seem to have taken a few votes mostly off the LDs. I presume that the latter didn't campaign but that at least the Tories did a bit. It's close to South Hampstead where the Tories also had a decent by-election result a little while ago (though Labour held on). There is gentrification happening in Kilburn. It's very well connected to Central. This is the best Tory result this century. It's not just Irish diaspore there. |
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Post by greenman on Sept 6, 2024 13:16:36 GMT
I would say that a drop from 74% to 47.2% in Camden Square and from 69.5% to 46.8% in Kentish Town South is considerable, and from 68.2% to 51.5% in Kilburn is substantial. It, for example, could put the other two Labour seats in danger in Highgate. The 2026 London Council elections in 2026 are going to be interesting.
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 6, 2024 13:32:14 GMT
GWBWI Lab +80 Con +40 LDm +17 Grn +16 All shall have prizes. But some will have bigger prizes than others. "just this once everybody lives" |
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clive
Non-Aligned
Posts: 35
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Post by clive on Sept 6, 2024 13:38:52 GMT
Is Manchester moving from a Labour v Lib Dem contest to a Labour v Green affair? I believe so - many places are. Look at the general election results. Withington's a striking example of this. Not really the strengths of the parties are largely in different places, bit like Liverpool in that respect. |
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clive
Non-Aligned
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Post by clive on Sept 6, 2024 13:41:13 GMT
LD hold in Swale: Labour: 74 Con 153 Reform: 200 LD: 316 Labour down in fourth, the honeymoon must truly be over. THE LD result here is better than it looks really as the incumbent had been a Councillor, apart from a brief break for a long time. Even when all other LD's lost their seats on Swale Mike Henderson endured, so a reduction in majority was pretty well assured with another candidate. |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Sept 6, 2024 13:44:04 GMT
There is very little Irish diaspora left in Kilburn. Basically Kilburn is to the Irish community what Stepney is to the Jewish community, most people have moved further afield.
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