Local Council by-elections 3rd/5th September 2024

[Tony Otim]

Tuesday 3rd September:

SWALE DC; Priory (Lib Dem died)
Candidates:
EYRE, Alex (Liberal Democrat)
GOODENOUGH, Jack (Conservative)
GRIFFIN, John William (Labour)
VALENTINE, Jess David (Reform UK)

2023: LD 394; Con 174; Lab 98; Grn 55
Sep 21by: LD 215; Con 173; Grn 128; Lab 49
2019: LD 382; Con 215; Lab 86; Grn 55
2015: Ind 610; Con 356; Lab 196; Grn 61

Jack Goodenough (Con) stood in Watling last year, as did Jess Valentine also for the Conservatives.

Current Council: Lab 16; Swale Ind All 11; Con 10; LD 4; Grn 3; Ind 2; 1 vacancy



Thursday 5th September:

CAMDEN LBC; Camden Square (Lab resigned following election as MP for Uxbridge & South Ruislip)
Candidates:
AKPOKE, Esmeralda (Conservative)
DICKER, James (Green)
FARAH, Ali (Independent)
LEMAN, Tricia (Labour)
MATTHEWS, Alexander Edward (Liberal Democrat)
WARWICK, Jasper (Independent)

2022: Lab 1309, 1275; LD 244, 218; Con 180, 146

Tricia Leman (Lab) was the unsuccessful candidate in last year’s Highgate by-election. Esmeralda Akpoke (Con) stood in Gospel Oak in 2022, and a Mohammed Ali Farah as an independent in Haverstock (possibly the same person) coming last.


CAMDEN LBC; Kentish Town South (Lab resigned following election as MP for Queen’s Park & Maida Vale)
Candidates:
BALL, Joseph William (Labour)
BROWN, Alice Amelia (Green)
COPELAND, Tara Michelle-Louise (Liberal Democrat)
NASER, Muhammad Abu (Independent)
ZIFFER, Shajib (Conservative)

2022: Lab 1847, 1664, 1616; Grn 678, 444; LD 250, 174, 151; Con 244, 226, 221; TUSC 122

An Alice Brown stood as an independent in Haverstock last time out, possibly the same person?


CAMDEN LBC; Kilburn (Lab resigned following election as MP for South Dorset)
Candidates:
ELKAN, David (Liberal Democrat)
GOMES VIEIRA, Michael (Green)
HORNSBY, Peter (Conservative)
THOMPSON, Robert George (Labour)

2022: Lab 1646, 1521, 1405; Con 447, 395, 340; LD 375, 288, 286

David Elkan (LD) stood in West Hampstead in 2022.

Current Council: Lab 43; LD 5; Con 3; Grn 1; 3 vacancies



CHESHIRE EAST UA; Crewe West (Lab resigned following election as MP for Crewe & Nantwich)
Candidates:
ENGLISH, Melanie Ruth (Green)
GOULDING, Nick (Reform UK)
SILVESTER, Brian George (Crewe First)
SIMCOX, David Mark (Conservative)
WYE, Ben (Labour)

2023: Lab 965, 911; Crewe 1st 318, 299; Con 277, 277
May 21by: Lab 724; Con 539; Crewe 1st 184; Grn 126; Ind 72; LD 55; Workers 13
2019: Lab 1013, 940; Ind 434; Con 409, 344
2015: Lab 1795, 1643; Con 824, 820; UKIP 749, 655; Ind 406, 378
Mar 14by: Lab 720; UKIP 387; Ind 159; Con 122; LD 55
2011: Lab 1252, 1182; Con 561, 527; LD 402, 280

Melanie English was the Green candidate here in the 2021 by-election and stood in Crewe East in 2023. Brian Silvester is a perennial candidate under many labels, most recently under his current party having contested Crewe and Nantwich at the recent General Election, the February by-election in Crewe Central, Crewe North in 2023 and the 2021 by-election here. Ben Wye (Lab) stood in Willaston & Rope in 2023.

Current Council: Con 33; Lab 28; Ind 15; LD 2; Non-grouped 2; Ind Soc 1; 1 vacancy



MANCHESTER MBC; Baguley (Lab resigned following election as MP for Bolton West)
Candidates:
ASANGA-RAE, Thirza Amina (Green)
CARLTON-WOODS, Stephen Paul (Conservative)
MOORE, Sebastian (SDP)
RASUL, Munaver Hussain (Labour)
STEWART, Euan Thomas (Liberal Democrat)

2024: Lab 1586; Con 423; Grn 319; LD 148
2023: Lab 1509; Con 377; Grn 214; LD 106
2022: Lab 1489; Con 438; Grn 198; LD 130
2021: Lab 1622; Con 523; GRn 262; LD 104; OMRLP 54
2019: Lab 1192; UKIP 364; Con 345; Grn 222; LD 107; Comm Lge 12
2018: Lab 1485, 1281, 1095; Con 450, 314, 275; Grn 224; LD 128, 113, 82.

Thirza Asanga-Rae (Grn) stood in the General Election in Manchester Rusholme and Sebastian Moore (SDP) in Manchester Central (Baguley is in Wythenshawe & Sale East). Asanga-Rae also stood in May in Moss Side and Euan Stewart (LD) in Brooklands.

Current Council: Lab 86; LD 4; Grn 3; Ind 1; Workers Party 1; 1 vacancy



MERTHYR TYDFIL UA; Bedlinog & Trelewis (Ind resigned)
Candidates:
DAWSON, Edward John (Conservative)
DROZD, Megan (Independent)
HUGHES, Naomi (Plaid Cymru)
PRESTON, Gill (Labour)
SEARL, Richard (Independent)

2022: Ind 581, 408, 136; Lab 362, 343; Con 57

Richard Searl was the unsuccessful indy here last time and Edward Dawson was the Conservative candidate.

Current Council: Ind Grp 14; Lab 13; Ind 2; 1 vacancy



REDCAR & CLEVELAND UA; Longbeck (Lab resigned following election as MP for Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland).
BOOTH, Sarah (Liberal Democrat)
BRADLEY, Jane (Labour)
COOPER, Steve (Independent)
CRANE, Stephen (Conservative)
GALLACHER, Christopher Arthur (Reform UK)
JEFFRIES, Vic (Independent)
TURNER, Andrea Lillian (Indpependent)

2023: Lab 707; Ind 413, 342, 246; Con 409, 293
May 21by: Con 710; Lab 440; Ind 399; LD 29
2019: Con 507, 475; Ind 469; UKIP 269; LD 163, 105; Lab 158, 135.

Ok – this gets a bit complicated – the indy elected in 2023 was the top Conservative elected in 2019. Steve Cooper (Ind) was the UKIP candidate in 2019. Stephen Crane (Con) was the third indy candidate in 2023. Vic Jeffries (Ind) was the second indy in 2023 and the indy in 2019. Andrea Turner (Ind) was the Conservative by-election winner from 2021 and top Conservative candidate from 2023. Chris Gallacher (Reform) stood as indy in Normanby last year.

Current Council: Lab 22; Con 13; Ind Grp 11; LD 10; Ind 2; 1 vacancy

[carolus]

Aug 12, 2024 15:48:41 GMT Tony Otim said:

REDCAR & CLEVELAND UA; Longbeck (Lab resigned following election as MP for Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland).
BOOTH, Sarah (Liberal Democrat)
BRADLEY, Jane (Labour)
COOPER, Steve (Independent)
CRANE, Stephen (Conservative)
GALLACHER, Christopher Arthur (Reform UK)
JEFFRIES, Vic (Independent)
TURNER, Andrea Lillian (Indpependent)

2023: Lab 707; Ind 413, 342, 246; Con 409, 293
May 21by: Con 710; Lab 440; Ind 399; LD 29
2019: Con 507, 475; Ind 469; UKIP 269; LD 163, 105; Lab 158, 135.

Ok – this gets a bit complicated – the indy elected in 2023 was the top Conservative elected in 2019. Steve Cooper (Ind) was the UKIP candidate in 2019. Stephen Crane (Con) was the third indy candidate in 2023. Vic Jeffries (Ind) was the second indy in 2023 and the indy in 2019. Andrea Turner (Ind) was the Conservative by-election winner from 2021 and top Conservative candidate from 2023. Chris Gallacher (Reform) stood as indy in Normanby last year.

Current Council: Lab 22; Con 13; Ind Grp 11; LD 10; Ind 2; 1 vacancy

In addition:

Gallacher was elected for UKIP in Normanby in 2019, and stood (and lost) for them in 2015.

Jeffries was elected for Labour in Longbeck in 2011, having stood (and lost) in 2007, and also stood (and lost) as an Independent in 2015. Also a losing Independent in the 2017 St Germain's byelection, and the 2018 Longbeck byelection.

Turner stood (and lost) for UKIP in Dormanstown in 2015, and the Conservatives in Wheatlands in 2019. She was also the losing UKIP candidate in the 2014 byelection in Dormanstown, and the 2017 byelection in Newcomen.

[batman]

can't these Redcar & Cleveland feckers make their minds up & stop confusing everyone?

[J.G.Harston]

Aug 12, 2024 15:59:39 GMT carolus said:

Aug 12, 2024 15:48:41 GMT Tony Otim said:

REDCAR & CLEVELAND UA; Longbeck (Lab resigned following election as MP for Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland).
BOOTH, Sarah (Liberal Democrat)
BRADLEY, Jane (Labour)
COOPER, Steve (Independent)
CRANE, Stephen (Conservative)
GALLACHER, Christopher Arthur (Reform UK)
JEFFRIES, Vic (Independent)
TURNER, Andrea Lillian (Indpependent)

2023: Lab 707; Ind 413, 342, 246; Con 409, 293
May 21by: Con 710; Lab 440; Ind 399; LD 29
2019: Con 507, 475; Ind 469; UKIP 269; LD 163, 105; Lab 158, 135.

Ok – this gets a bit complicated – the indy elected in 2023 was the top Conservative elected in 2019. Steve Cooper (Ind) was the UKIP candidate in 2019. Stephen Crane (Con) was the third indy candidate in 2023. Vic Jeffries (Ind) was the second indy in 2023 and the indy in 2019. Andrea Turner (Ind) was the Conservative by-election winner from 2021 and top Conservative candidate from 2023. Chris Gallacher (Reform) stood as indy in Normanby last year.

Current Council: Lab 22; Con 13; Ind Grp 11; LD 10; Ind 2; 1 vacancy

In addition:

Gallacher was elected for UKIP in Normanby in 2019, and stood (and lost) for them in 2015.

Jeffries was elected for Labour in Longbeck in 2011, having stood (and lost) in 2007, and also stood (and lost) as an Independent in 2015. Also a losing Independent in the 2017 St Germain's byelection, and the 2018 Longbeck byelection.

Turner stood (and lost) for UKIP in Dormanstown in 2015, and the Conservatives in Wheatlands in 2019. She was also the losing UKIP candidate in the 2014 byelection in Dormanstown, and the 2017 byelection in Newcomen.

Last week on Soap....

[sanders]

'CAMDEN LBC; Kilburn (Lab resigned following election as MP for South Dorset)
Candidates:
ELKAN, David (Liberal Democrat)
GOMES VIEIRA, Michael (Green)
HORNSBY, Peter (Conservative)
THOMPSON, Robert George (Labour)

2022: Lab 1646, 1521, 1405; Con 447, 395, 340; LD 375, 288, 286

David Elkan (LD) stood in West Hampstead in 2022.'

He did, and he almost won. I don't know who to support. This may be more dicey honestly. In Camden Square it's a clusterfuck. Not so much in Kilburn ward. Lib Dems used to win there. I thin they will win it. Greens may take Kentish Town South. Still, Labour wouldn't need many votes. Kentish Town South = clown car. Still, Camden Square is that too.

[batman]

Kilburn ward very rarely votes against Labour. I think it has only ever elected non-Labour councillors in 1968 and 2006, at least since the creation of Camden Council in 1964. An old friend Jilly stood for the Liberals there in the late 50s when it was Hampstead Council. She too lost to Labour. She dated a young and unknown Sean Connery at that time.

[sanders]

That's true and Irish helped that. It is changing quite a bit. I once had a Kilburn client. Old Etonian 'sustainable investment fund' guy. The Jubilee line has aided gentrification. That, plus the High Road Overground. The bougie Lib Dems may win! They can point to Kilburn history. Greens will focus on Kentish Town. Now Kentish Town has a Gail's. That's a a surefire gentrification red flag.

You've reminded me about Hillrise ward. It voted against Labour in 1964. Then elected one Tory in 1978.

Kentish Town tube is still shut. Will that impact the election result? It wouldn't seem all that fair. Still, politics isn't always that fair. Will you be campaigning there batman ? It's just along the Overground line. Richmond to Kentish Town West - easy enough. 

[pg]

The Camden ward of Kilburn voted Labour in 1968, taking 49.5% of the vote. However, in 1949 it split 4 Conservative, 2 Labour. One of the two Labour councillors elected in 1949, Albert Skinner, held the ward in 1968. The Conservative who topped the poll in 1949 with 2069 votes, was Barbara Brooke, later Baroness Brooke, wife of Henry Brooke and mother of Peter Brooke.

[iang]

Is mrtoad going to write up these Camden elections and last week's titanic struggle in Hillrise for On London? (And provide a link)

[batman]

Aug 15, 2024 16:19:11 GMT pg said:

The Camden ward of Kilburn voted Labour in 1968, taking 49.5% of the vote. However, in 1949 it split 4 Conservative, 2 Labour. One of the two Labour councillors elected in 1949, Albert Skinner, held the ward in 1968. The Conservative who topped the poll in 1949 with 2069 votes, was Barbara Brooke, later Baroness Brooke, wife of Henry Brooke and mother of Peter Brooke.

thanks, for some reason I thought Labour had lost it that year, as they did myriad other wards everywhere. 

[mrtoad]

Aug 20, 2024 9:17:28 GMT iang said:

Is mrtoad going to write up these Camden elections and last week's titanic struggle in Hillrise for On London? (And provide a link)

Thanks for the interest! Yes I intend to but it may be a bit in arrears (I've yet to do the Newham ones from earlier) thanks to health issues and other commitments.

[iang]

Aug 20, 2024 19:15:02 GMT mrtoad said:

Aug 20, 2024 9:17:28 GMT iang said:

Is mrtoad going to write up these Camden elections and last week's titanic struggle in Hillrise for On London? (And provide a link)

Thanks for the interest! Yes I intend to but it may be a bit in arrears (I've yet to do the Newham ones from earlier) thanks to health issues and other commitments.

I hope so, I really enjoy your articles

[greenman]

I observe that the Green candidate obtained 58.7% in the November 30th Highgate by-election, an increase of 15% over the 2022 general Camden election and the same person obtained 13.6% in the 2024 general election in the Hampstead and Highgate, compared to a Green result of 2.8% in 2019. In 2024 in Holborn and St Pancreas the Labour vote dropped from 64.5% to 48.9% and the Green vote rose from 4.8% to 10.6%, with a pro-Gaza Independent coming 2nd with 18.9%.

So the question for me is how many votes will Muhammad Naser pick up in Kentish Town and what will a Green candidate running in Kilburn do to the Labour vote, noting Green went from 4th to 3rd in Hampstead and Kilburn and from 4th to 3rd in Holburn St Pancreas in the 2024 election.

[phil156]

SWALE - counts on Tuesday evening

[sanders]

Aug 22, 2024 16:37:50 GMT greenman said:

I observe that the Green candidate obtained 58.7% in the November 30th Highgate by-election, an increase of 15% over the 2022 general Camden election and the same person obtained 13.6% in the 2024 general election in the Hampstead and Highgate, compared to a Green result of 2.8% in 2019. In 2024 in Holborn and St Pancreas the Labour vote dropped from 64.5% to 48.9% and the Green vote rose from 4.8% to 10.6%, with a pro-Gaza Independent coming 2nd with 18.9%.

So the question for me is how many votes will Muhammad Naser pick up in Kentish Town and what will a Green candidate running in Kilburn do to the Labour vote, noting Green went from 4th to 3rd in Hampstead and Kilburn and from 4th to 3rd in Holburn St Pancreas in the 2024 election.

That's correct. The problem for the Greens is that the defeated independent in Holborn & St Pancras (Starmer's seat) seems to be backing the independents in Camden Square and Kentish Town South. That could theoretically ensure Labour holds both wards with much reduced vote shares and majorities. Ironically, ironically because Kilburn has been safer than Kentish Town and Camden proper, even in bad Labour years like 2006 (at least from my recollection), Kilburn may be the Greens' best result because Feinstein isn't backing an independent there. Now you might say well look, Sanders, Feinstein lost, and lose he did, but he does seem to market himself as the only viable anti-Labour option in Holborn & St Pancras and has apparently anointed these two independents. I have distanced myself from him because I don't see this laser focus on independent candidatures in what feels like a holier than thou self-righteous sense to be universally efficacious.

In Hackney, with Greens and Independents coordinating their time and resources and overall firepower to separate wards the week after these by-elections, that's smarter. 

[ricmk]

A Tuesday preview just feels *wrong*

So please ignore this one in solidarity:
medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-priory-ward-swale-kent-by-election-of-tuesday-3rd-september-2024-84a66e9cebff

[jamesdoyle]

Arden of Faversham is one of the Shakespeare Apocrypha with a decent chance of being written, in whole or in part, by Will himself. I don't think the scene of the crime is in the ward, but it's pretty close to the boundary.

[finsobruce]

Sept 3, 2024 9:36:20 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Arden of Faversham is one of the Shakespeare Apocrypha with a decent chance of being written, in whole or in part, by Will himself. I don't think the scene of the crime is in the ward, but it's pretty close to the boundary.

The argument rages, but i don't think we'll never know for sure either way :

www.theguardian.com/stage/2020/apr/05/shakespeares-secret-co-writer-finally-takes-a-bow-430-years-late

[jamesdoyle]

Sept 3, 2024 11:05:31 GMT finsobruce said:

Sept 3, 2024 9:36:20 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Arden of Faversham is one of the Shakespeare Apocrypha with a decent chance of being written, in whole or in part, by Will himself. I don't think the scene of the crime is in the ward, but it's pretty close to the boundary.

The argument rages, but i don't think we'll never know for sure either way :

www.theguardian.com/stage/2020/apr/05/shakespeares-secret-co-writer-finally-takes-a-bow-430-years-late

Oh yes, it sways back and forward all the time. The computational methods are, as I recall, not totally conclusive but do point to WS having involvement in some parts. It certainly reads like him, to me at least, but patchily. It's just so very different to everything else he wrote.

[finsobruce]

Sept 3, 2024 11:26:24 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Sept 3, 2024 11:05:31 GMT finsobruce said:

The argument rages, but i don't think we'll never know for sure either way :

www.theguardian.com/stage/2020/apr/05/shakespeares-secret-co-writer-finally-takes-a-bow-430-years-late

Oh yes, it sways back and forward all the time. The computational methods are, as I recall, not totally conclusive but do point to WS having involvement in some parts. It certainly reads like him, to me at least, but patchily. It's just so very different to everything else he wrote.

I remember reading  that it was (on recorded performances etc) one of the most successful plays of its age, which makes it all the stranger that we don't conclusively know who the author or authors were.