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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 5, 2024 22:57:14 GMT
MANCHESTER Baguley
RASUL, Munaver Hussain (Labour Party) 623
ASANGA-RAE, Thirza Amina (The Green Party) 282
CARLTON-WOODS, Stephen Paul (The Conservative Party Candidate) 243
STEWART, Euan Thomas (Liberal Democrats) 110
MOORE, Sebastian (Social Democratic Party) 71
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,615 
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Post by ricmk on Sept 5, 2024 22:59:52 GMT
From the preview:
"Two independent candidates have come forward to succeed Colbran. Richard Searl, who was an unsuccessful candidate for this ward in 2022, is chair of the local community council and works as a charity fundraising manager; while nursery worker Megan Drozd is involved with the local neighbourhood watch and wants to deliver more for additional learning needs in the area."
I would not have guessed Drozd 314 Searl 11 from that - pretty much the opposite!
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 5, 2024 23:01:30 GMT
Percentages but not vote numbers for Crewe West from local Reform UK source:
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Post by sanders on Sept 5, 2024 23:25:37 GMT
REDCAR AND CLEVELAND Longbeck CRANE, Stephen (The Conservative Party Candidate) 384 BRADLEY, Jane Marie (Labour Party) 206 TURNER, Andrea Lillian (Indpependent) 119 GALLACHER, Christopher Arthur (Reform UK) 108 JEFFRIES, Victor (Independent) 105 COOPER, Stephen Paul (Independent) 50 BOOTH, Sarah Louise (Liberal Democrat) 40 Not even close - impressive Tory result. Anyone done the percentages and changes? |
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Post by greenman on Sept 5, 2024 23:36:10 GMT
Note Green doubled their vote over the 2024 Manchester Baguley election, while Labour lost 15.9%.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Sept 5, 2024 23:52:09 GMT
Note Green doubled their vote over the 2024 Manchester Baguley election, while Labour lost 15.9%. Is Manchester moving from a Labour v Lib Dem contest to a Labour v Green affair? |
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Post by sanders on Sept 6, 2024 2:42:01 GMT
Note Green doubled their vote over the 2024 Manchester Baguley election, while Labour lost 15.9%. Is Manchester moving from a Labour v Lib Dem contest to a Labour v Green affair? I believe so - many places are. Look at the general election results. Withington's a striking example of this. |
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Post by owainsutton on Sept 6, 2024 5:31:57 GMT
Note Green doubled their vote over the 2024 Manchester Baguley election, while Labour lost 15.9%. We might have put a bit of effort into it  |
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Post by sanders on Sept 6, 2024 5:34:45 GMT
IMO, Manchester, Withington = long-term Green target. Labour lost it before, why not...
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Post by owainsutton on Sept 6, 2024 6:01:01 GMT
Note Green doubled their vote over the 2024 Manchester Baguley election, while Labour lost 15.9%. Is Manchester moving from a Labour v Lib Dem contest to a Labour v Green affair? Total GE vote shares across Central/Rusholme/Withington/Wythenshawe & SE/Blackley & MS (not exactly contigious with the city but fairly close: Green 16%, Reform 11%, Con 8%, LD 7%, WPGP 4%. (LD did miss out on a candidate in Rusholme.) |
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Post by sanders on Sept 6, 2024 6:12:36 GMT
General election 2024: Manchester Withington
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labour Jeff Smith 22,066 52.9 –13.6
Green Sam Easterby-Smith 8,084 19.4 +15.4
Liberal Democrats Richard Kilpatrick 5,412 13.0 –2.7
Conservative Sarah Garcia de Bustos 2,280 5.5 –5.8
Reform UK Kaine Williams 1,961 4.7 +2.2
Workers Party Lizzie Greenwood 1,774 4.3 N/A
SDP Wendy Andrew[14] 154 0.4 N/A
Majority 13,982 33.5 –17.3
Turnout 41,731 59.2 –10.3
Registered electors 70,549
Labour hold Swing Decrease14.5
I reckon that Greens squeeze LD. If Labour falls another 10%, then it could be competitive here. Greens need more Councillors of course. But I wouldn't get complacent if I was Labour - I'm not in any way suggesting that Smith is doing that. He also might retire at some point (he's been MP since 2015). The seat reminds me of Islington and others have intimated this too - large population with Irish origins, quite hipster in parts. I don't know Manchester aside from Piccadilly and the tram out, but Didsbury seems a bit like Highbury in places (I obviously make such comparisons at my own risk given the large numbers of Londoners and Mancunians potentially reading this).
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batman
Labour
Posts: 12,359
Member is Online
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Post by batman on Sept 6, 2024 6:23:30 GMT
It’s more like Hornsey and Friern Barnet than Islington North, though this is a simplification.
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Post by sanders on Sept 6, 2024 6:29:24 GMT
It’s more like Hornsey and Friern Barnet than Islington North, though this is a simplification. I agree with that. The election history of the old Hornsey & Wood Green was similar, but Manchester doesn't have anything like the wealth of Courtenay Avenue, N6. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 6, 2024 6:58:57 GMT
It’s more like Hornsey and Friern Barnet than Islington North, though this is a simplification. All such comparisons are... |
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,173
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Post by r34t on Sept 6, 2024 7:04:21 GMT
Note Green doubled their vote over the 2024 Manchester Baguley election, while Labour lost 15.9%. Is Manchester moving from a Labour v Lib Dem contest to a Labour v Green affair? Mirroring Bristol on a LA level ? |
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Post by sanders on Sept 6, 2024 7:09:48 GMT
Is Manchester moving from a Labour v Lib Dem contest to a Labour v Green affair? Mirroring Bristol on a LA level ? Labour have never lost Manchester, however. It's far more Labour than Bristol. Which is a shame for psephologists. |
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrewp on Sept 6, 2024 8:02:59 GMT
Changes from last contest in each ward
Cheshire East ( changes from 2023)
Lab 43.3% (-18.6)
RefUK 26.1% (new)
Con 17% (-0.8)
CF 8.5% (-11.9)
Green 4.9% (new)
Manchester ( changes from 2024)
Lab 46.9% (-17.2)
Green 21.2% (+8.3)
Con 18.3% (+1.2)
LD 8.3% (+2.3)
SDP 5.3% ( new)
Merthyr ( changes from 2022)
Lab 48.8% (+12.6)
Ind 37.2% ( new)
PC 9.8% (new)
Con 2.8% (-2.9)
Ind 1.3%
No other Ind from 2022
Redcar and Cleveland ( changes from 2023)
Con 37.9% (+11.2)
Lab 20.4% (-25.8)
Ind 11.8% (new)
RefUK 10.7% (new)
Ind 10.4% ( new)
Ind 4.9% ( new)
LD 4% ( new)
No other Ind from before
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Post by November_Rain on Sept 6, 2024 8:22:20 GMT
Excellent result for us in Manchester. Good base to build on and 5% is a decent return.
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Post by sanders on Sept 6, 2024 8:26:30 GMT
Changes from last contest in each ward Redcar and Cleveland ( changes from 2023) Con 37.9% (+11.2)Lab 20.4% (-25.8) Ind 11.8% (new) RefUK 10.7% (new) Ind 10.4% ( new) Ind 4.9% ( new) LD 4% ( new) No other Ind from before 18.5% swing from Labour to Conservative! |
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batman
Labour
Posts: 12,359
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Post by batman on Sept 6, 2024 8:38:15 GMT
Mirroring Bristol on a LA level ? Labour have never lost Manchester, however. It's far more Labour than Bristol. Which is a shame for psephologists. we have, but it was a long time ago. My cousin Sir Morris Pariser was Leader of the Labour Group on Manchester Council, but he was in opposition to the Tories. A council tower block was named after him years ago. His widow Lady Irene, who was a lovely person, survived to a very healthy age. I also had a cousin Eric Mendell who was a leading figure in the Manchester Labour Party, but he retired to Hove eventually, where I visited him with my grandma years ago. |
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