|
|
Post by phil156 on Aug 23, 2024 9:59:05 GMT
WEST LOTHIAN - Armadale & Blackridge Ward
Lab gain from Ind
Lab 795
SNP 777
Ref 519
Ind for Scotland 236
Con 226
LD 122
Grn 73
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Aug 23, 2024 10:59:36 GMT
Close between the top two on first preferences, but the SNP were clearly ahead there in all previous elections going back to 2007.
(and indeed Armadale itself was a stronghold for them back in the 1980s and 90s)
|
|
Eastwood
Non-Aligned
Politically restricted post
Posts: 2,122 
|
Post by Eastwood on Aug 23, 2024 11:22:01 GMT
1103 (Labour) vs 967 (SNP) after the other 5 candidates excluded.
So 136 votes in it. Overall I’d say it’s a very strong result for Labour.
The ex Labour Independent (Andrew McGuire) has a good chance of being re-elected though as he is popular locally and can pick up a lot of Cllr Borrowman’s voters. If he restands then a 2027 result of 1 Lab, 1 SNP, 1 IND looks very likely.
|
|
Sandy
Forum Regular
Posts: 3,187
|
Post by Sandy on Aug 23, 2024 11:47:19 GMT
Any particular reason why reform did so well?
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 23, 2024 11:51:26 GMT
Any particular reason why reform did so well? Maybe the Orange vote? That would be a factor in these parts wouldn't it? |
|
|
|
Post by Peter Wilkinson on Aug 23, 2024 11:52:47 GMT
By-election results page, giving links to various report downloads. Most relevant download is probably Candidate Votes Per Stage - subject to all the usual complaints about Scottish local by-election reports (e.g. otiose extra stages, and levels of precision simply not needed in an AV election), which will no doubt be provided later by the usual people  . Possible points of interest: - Labour achieved quota at stage 7, with a majority of 106 over non-transferable votes (by the way, what is supposed to happen if non-transferable votes ever reaches quota?
 ) - It is noticeable that the SNP candidate was very narrowly in the lead at stage 4, before the elimination of the Conservative and Reform UK candidates. While a substantial minority of Conservative votes and the bulk of Reform votes did not transfer, the fact that those that did mostly transferred to Labour rather than the SNP accounts for the result.
- Is the Reform UK result at stage 1 by any chance the highest first-preference percentage they have ever achieved in an election in Scotland?
|
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Aug 23, 2024 12:07:25 GMT
Any particular reason why reform did so well? I suppose because the Independent did well - it's perhaps very different. |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Aug 23, 2024 12:19:34 GMT
Any particular reason why reform did so well? Maybe the Orange vote? That would be a factor in these parts wouldn't it? They came 3rd in the GE in the Bathgate and Linlithgow Constituecy and I would suspect this was one of the stronger wards for them in that seat, so I was expecting a decent showing, although maybe not that strong. Also a relatively decent vote for Independence for Scotland. |
|
|
|
Post by jamesdoyle on Aug 23, 2024 12:39:00 GMT
GWBWI
Con +59
Lab +45
Grn +7
SNP -5
LDm -58
The (by election) world turned upside down.
|
|
spqr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,905
|
Post by spqr on Aug 23, 2024 12:42:40 GMT
Maybe the Orange vote? That would be a factor in these parts wouldn't it? They came 3rd in the GE in the Bathgate and Linlithgow Constituecy and I would suspect this was one of the stronger wards for them in that seat, so I was expecting a decent showing, although maybe not that strong. Also a relatively decent vote for Independence for Scotland.It's notable that the ISP candidate received approximately 60% of the votes that he gained when standing in Bathgate and Linlithgow as a whole at the GE (236 votes to 382). |
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
|
Post by Tony Otim on Aug 23, 2024 13:22:27 GMT
[/li][li]Is the Reform UK result at stage 1 by any chance the highest first-preference percentage they have ever achieved in an election in Scotland? [/li][/ul] [/quote] Given that they've only contested 1 (I believe) previous by-election and didn't stand at all in 2022, almost certainly. |
|
|
|
Post by thirdchill on Aug 23, 2024 14:35:43 GMT
NORTHUMBERLAND Cramlington Eastfield SMITH, Alan (Conservative) 513 GILLOOLY, James John (Labour Party) 371 OWEN, Mark David (Reform UK) 177 CRIPPS, Libby (Independent) 67 McGREGOR, Andy (Liberal Democrat) 23 EVANS, Paul (Green) 22 FURNESS, Dawn (Independent) 6 Am I right in thinking that’s a pretty good result for the Tories given the national situation and that they didn’t win this ward until 2017? In percentage terms it's clearly different (and better for the conservatives and worse for labour) than the General Election. Given the General Election Results of around 49% for labour and 19% for Cons in the constituency as a whole it's clear that labour were clearly ahead of the conservatives everywhere in the constituency except Cramlington North (and labour could have been ahead there too but very close). So labour would have been clearly ahead of the conservatives in this ward at the General Election. Usual caveats apply of course, with different patterns occurring and different voting motivations on a local level. Plus the fact that the conservatives are in opposition nationally may mean there isn't the same motivation to give them a kick locally compared to when they were in government. |
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 23, 2024 14:59:16 GMT
The Labour candidate was also a student and that isn't usually a profile that wins you extra votes.
|
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Aug 23, 2024 15:59:38 GMT
The Labour candidate was also a student and that isn't usually a profile that wins you extra votes. I suspect that was the problem in Cramlington in part. |
|
|
|
Post by edgbaston on Aug 23, 2024 16:46:37 GMT
The Labour candidate was also a student and that isn't usually a profile that wins you extra votes. I suspect that was the problem in Cramlington in part. Yes the people of Cramlington yearn for a cultural revolution where the educated and intellectuals are forced to toil in the mines and fields. |
|
andrewp
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,579
Member is Online
|
Post by andrewp on Aug 23, 2024 16:50:38 GMT
An update on the statistics for the by elections held in this local electoral year, following the May 2024 local elections.
Following the 3 elections held on the 22nd August, there have now been 88 ordinary by elections since 2nd May 2024.
The Conservatives have defended 22- Held 16 and lost 6- 5 to Labour and 1 to RefUK ( retention rate 73%) and have gained 5
Labour have defended 47- held 43 and lost 4, 2 to the Greens, 1 to the Conservatives and 1 to the Liberal Democrats ( retention rate 91%) and have gained 8
The Lib Dems have defended 11, held 6 and lost 5 - 2 each to Labour and the Conservatives and 1 to the SNP ( retention rate 55%) and have gained 1
The Greens have defended 2, held 2 ( retention rate 100%) and have gained 2
RefUK have gained. 1 seat
SNP have gained 1 seat
There have been 6 by elections for a seat previously won by an Independent, 3 were won by another Independent, 2 were gained by the Conservatives and 1 by Labour
Overall totals and net changes
Con 21 (-1)
Lab 51 (+4)
LD 7 (-4)
Green 4 (+2)
Ind 3 (-3)
RefUK 1 (+1)
SNP 1 (+1)
|
|
|
|
Post by riccimarsh on Aug 23, 2024 17:28:10 GMT
Only seven pages of comments this week??  |
|
|
|
Post by certain on Aug 23, 2024 17:43:11 GMT
For what it's worth, I think the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance has gone down very badly with the kind of Labour supporter who votes in local elections.
|
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Aug 23, 2024 17:43:59 GMT
Only seven pages of comments this week?? Fings ain't wot they used to be. |
|
|
|
Post by uthacalthing on Aug 23, 2024 17:54:04 GMT
Any particular reason why reform did so well? Maybe the Orange vote? That would be a factor in these parts wouldn't it? It may be one of those rare places where the Reform voters second preference is not Conservative, but Blue Labour It is however a problem for the Conservatives. They dont appeal beyond their core vote and their core vote prefers Reform |
|
.
)
