Local Council by-elections 22nd August 2024

[andrewp]

Abbots Langley percentages and changes

Con 40.5% (+20.5)
LD 34.2% (-24.4)
Green 15.9% (+8.4)
Lab: 9.4% (-4.5)

[greenman]

Conservatives moved from 20% to 37.1%, Liberal Democrats from 58.5% to 31.1%, Green from 7.5% to 14.6% and Labour from 13.8% to 8.6%:

www.threerivers.gov.uk/services/elections-and-democracy/election-results/district-council-by-election-results-august-2024

[johnloony]

Aug 22, 2024 22:38:01 GMT swanarcadian said:

Aug 17, 2024 10:25:08 GMT johnloony said:

I notice the one in Northumberland has two different Independent candidates. There is potential for a social experiment in analysing the great rivalry between them in competing for votes using different leafleting methods.

It would be nice if Independent candidates were permitted to elaborate slightly and describe themselves as Independent of the Right/Independent of the Left etc. It would be more meaningful for psephologists and for voters.

That was of course possible before the registration of political parties. When I stood as an Independent candidate (in 1995, i.e. after the abolition of the Chocolate Fudge Cake Party and before I joined the Official Monster Raving Loony Party), I deliberately used a full six-word description in order to give as much information as possible to the voters (“Independent Green Social Democratic Libertarian Monarchist”). I got 15 votes and the Green Party candidate got 32.

[Pete Whitehead]

What on earth is going on in Three Rivers? Is it about to do an Adur? It's been noted that the Lib Dems performed poorly in SW Herts at the general election all things considered.

[peterski]

Whilst it would be unwise to extrapolate too much from local by-elections held in peak holiday time these two results may indicate the long road of Tory electoral recovery is beginning.

[uthacalthing]

Aug 23, 2024 4:44:42 GMT peterski said:

Whilst it would be unwise to extrapolate too much from local by-elections held in peak holiday time these two results may indicate the long road of Tory electoral recovery is beginning.

There are a great many voters who want there to be a Conservative Party. Proposing Conservative sort of policies. 

[tonyhil]

Yes, it would be unwise to extrapolate the results of two by-elections to indicate that the Conservatives are beginning an electoral recovery.

[matureleft]

There were signs before the election that the smaller cohort of voters who take part in typical local elections had some nuance to their feelings about the Tory party. Perfectly reasonably they didn’t always see why removing a manifestly incompetent government should mean they should also reject Tory candidates in a local election fought on different issues. As a committed enthusiast for local government who regularly benefited from such a nuance I applaud that. Local issues, the quality of the candidate and how the campaign runs ought to be what drives votes in local elections.

[ColinJ]

Aug 22, 2024 23:29:06 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

What on earth is going on in Three Rivers? Is it about to do an Adur? It's been noted that the Lib Dems performed poorly in SW Herts at the general election all things considered.

Despite living in the adjacent ward, I failed to pick up on the minor earthquake happening under our noses and assumed that the Liberal Democrats would win, as they always seem to do round here. Indeed, the parish council by-election in Bedmond just two weeks previously was an easy Lib Dem win and showed the three main parties with unchanged shares of the votes over the last three elections there (2022 -> 2023 -> 2024). However, I offer the following as conspiring to produce yesterday's shock...:

1. The Conservative candidate, Vicky Edwards, lives in the ward, is youthful, pleasant and personable.

2. The sense among the Tories that there was an opportunity.  My understanding is that they called the by-election promptly after the vacancy became known, despite polling day falling in peak holiday period. Taking cues from the Lib Dem playbook, there was emphasis from them that Alex Turner, the Lib Dem candidate, lived outside the ward. Despite his residency in Abbots Langley parish, Alex perhaps had the misfortune to have a Garston (Watford) postal address. Canvassing must have shown the Lib Dems that something was going on vis a vis the Tories, and so started to deliver leaflets with headlines such as "Will Voting Labour Give You The Blues?" and "Who Will Keep The Conservatives Out?"

3. The Green Party made an effort.  It is plausible that they took votes from Lib Dems and Labour (who for the first time in a long time had the resources to deliver direct mails and an election address). The Greens had the ideal opportunity to 'give it a go' at an election outside of their Croxley Green stronghold.  I know they mustered some help from neighbouring areas, e.g. St Albans.

4. Turbulence in the Three Rivers Lib Dem group.  This cannot be ignored and must have been the major factor. The Lib Dem elected in Abbots Langley & Bedmond in May 2024, and who become deputy leader on the council, resigned his seat only two months after his renewed mandate.  This will have raised a lot of eyebrows; it appears he did so to offer support (in the broadest sense of the word) to his wife and fellow ward councillor who had just resigned from the Liberal Democrat group and now sits as an Independent on Three Rivers council (but remains a Lib Dem on Herts County Council).

5. The handling by the Lib Dems of the appointment of new lead members on the Council.  Post the May 2024 election there was an unprecedented situation where Conservative, Labour and Green councillors, together with an Independent, were unanimous in their opposition to one of the names put forward by the Lib Dem group.  The opposition parties all supported a motion asking for a different nominee from the Lib Dem group.  These difficulties for the Lib Dems were highlighted by a free news magazine (My Abbots, delivered to every household), making it their lead story more than once in recent months.

[batman]

Question is whether this has wider significance in the area. No.4 is the issue the LDs need to address perhaps if they are to keep this as a one-off.


I've said this before, but I'll say it again : the Lib Dems often benefit from tactical voting, but this can be a much-blunted instrument if conditions are less favourable. They really need to consider giving people positive reasons as to why they are better than the Tories in a particular ward or municipality, rather than waste so much energy going for the rather insignificant (in this ward) Labour vote. There are more Tory than Labour voters in this ward & generally district, so an appeal to Tory voters if carried out well can bring much greater electoral dividends.

[David]

Aug 23, 2024 6:13:56 GMT matureleft said:

There were signs before the election that the smaller cohort of voters who take part in typical local elections, had some nuance to their feelings about the Tory party. Perfectly reasonably they didn’t always see why removing a manifestly incompetent government should mean they should also reject Tory candidates in a local election fought on different issues. As a committed enthusiast for local government who regularly benefited from such a nuance I applaud that. Local issues, the quality of the candidate and how the campaign runs ought to be what drives votes in local elections.

It may be that some people might think that given the difficulties our new government find themselves in, that the judgement on the previous government as "manifestly incompetent" might be an unfair judgement given the hugely difficult environment that clearly challenges any and every government?

[aslaw]

For many a year the LibDems have been the “home” of many a Green, in fact sometimes they have been greener than Green. A more confident Green Party attracts. Not the only reason here, but likely contributed to loss.

[Chris from Brum]

Then it's time for us to be a bit more spiky in our dealings with the Greens, including pointing out some home truths about them in our campaign literature. We've soft-pedalled with them for too long.

[carolus]

I'm sure the improved Green performance didn't help us, and may even have been the difference between a Con gain and an LD hold. But we lost a ward that we won by 40%+ a few months ago, so I'm not really convinced it's the main issue.

[Merseymike]

Aug 23, 2024 8:44:47 GMT Chris from Brum said:

Then it's time for us to be a bit more spiky in our dealings with the Greens, including pointing out some home truths about them in our campaign literature. We've soft-pedalled with them for too long.

From the Greens? No.
Of course, there are some so-called "LibDems" are still around - but I don't think targeting the Greens. Indeed, the LibDems support trans issues, are more critical of Israel, and more environmentally conscious.

I wonder these so-called LibDems tend to be towards the Right.

[r34t]

Tory voters are free to return to being Tory voters

[The Bishop]

I think some people are getting a bit carried away with how good the Killingworth result was for the Tories - especially given that the previous Northumberland byelection last year (ie when the Tories were still in government) in a genuinely marginal ward, actually saw a small swing *to* them. A repeat of last night's outcome across the authority next year would see Labour take control easily, even if they fall short of an overall majority.

The ward in question may have voted Labour in 2013, but I don't think the fact it went Tory *very* comfortably in 2017 and 2021 can just be waved aside. It was likely still close in last month's GE, whilst Cramlington North probably stayed Tory.

[matureleft]

Aug 23, 2024 8:23:43 GMT David said:

Aug 23, 2024 6:13:56 GMT matureleft said:

There were signs before the election that the smaller cohort of voters who take part in typical local elections, had some nuance to their feelings about the Tory party. Perfectly reasonably they didn’t always see why removing a manifestly incompetent government should mean they should also reject Tory candidates in a local election fought on different issues. As a committed enthusiast for local government who regularly benefited from such a nuance I applaud that. Local issues, the quality of the candidate and how the campaign runs ought to be what drives votes in local elections.

It may be that some people might think that given the difficulties our new government find themselves in, that the judgement on the previous government as "manifestly incompetent" might be an unfair judgement given the hugely difficult environment that clearly challenges any and every government?

Well the challenges are certainly large but, as Rees Mogg has candidly conceded, the last government was exceptionally bad and deserved removal. Many of its difficulties were self-imposed.

There’s a good article from a very centrist Tory in today’s FT (behind a paywall) which is very sharp on the period since the coalition but taken from the opposite perspective to Rees Mogg. It illustrates precisely the party’s problem. What they did both pleased nobody and was badly delivered. 

[East Anglian Lefty]

Aug 23, 2024 8:23:43 GMT David said:

Aug 23, 2024 6:13:56 GMT matureleft said:

There were signs before the election that the smaller cohort of voters who take part in typical local elections, had some nuance to their feelings about the Tory party. Perfectly reasonably they didn’t always see why removing a manifestly incompetent government should mean they should also reject Tory candidates in a local election fought on different issues. As a committed enthusiast for local government who regularly benefited from such a nuance I applaud that. Local issues, the quality of the candidate and how the campaign runs ought to be what drives votes in local elections.

It may be that some people might think that given the difficulties our new government find themselves in, that the judgement on the previous government as "manifestly incompetent" might be an unfair judgement given the hugely difficult environment that clearly challenges any and every government?

Not only is this far too limited evidence to make such broad assertions, but it's notable that despite the government's fairly anaemic ratings, those for the Tories are still much worse.

[The Bishop]

Aug 22, 2024 23:29:06 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

What on earth is going on in Three Rivers? Is it about to do an Adur? It's been noted that the Lib Dems performed poorly in SW Herts at the general election all things considered.

As alluded to by ColinJ, the LibDems do seem to have been experiencing significant local ructions - this sort of thing can sometimes be smoothed over in all-out elections but has more chance of coming to the fore in a local by-election. And your comparison with Adur may be apposite as personal factors were a big part of the implosion there. Plus the GE result wasn't that impressive for them as you say. Maybe a council to watch in the next few years, especially if there is a decent Tory recovery.