ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
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Post by ColinJ on Aug 17, 2024 7:48:20 GMT
Of the three next week, one looks like a very easy Lib Dem hold, the other two look more interesting. EDIT: that appears to be the very first comment in this thread about the actual election! In the words of Willie Whitelaw, “I don’t blame anyone except, perhaps, all of us.” Thanks for your encouraging first sentence! I will be quite busy this weekend delivering leaflets in Abbots Langley on behalf of the Labour Party candidate! |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Aug 17, 2024 7:59:45 GMT
Well I've been wrong about stuff before! But then I've delivered many thousands of Labour leaflets in safe Lib Dem wards myself over the years.
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Aug 17, 2024 8:03:40 GMT
Re Cramlington, the town's wards all voted Conservative in 2021 except one which was won by an independent. There has obviously been a very large swing to Labour since then. Eastfield appears not to be one of the strongest Tory wards in the town & I assume that Labour will be working it very hard. Reform may choose to do so as well but the real battle ought to be between Labour & the Tories.
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r34t
Non-Aligned
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Post by r34t on Aug 17, 2024 8:08:09 GMT
Re Cramlington, the town's wards all voted Conservative in 2021 except one which was won by an independent. There has obviously been a very large swing to Labour since then. Eastfield appears not to be one of the strongest Tory wards in the town & I assume that Labour will be working it very hard. Reform may choose to do so as well but the real battle ought to be between Labour & the Tories. Are Reform doing by-elections ? |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Aug 17, 2024 8:33:22 GMT
well they are standing in this one.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Aug 17, 2024 9:40:31 GMT
Armadale & Blackridge: 2022: Ind 2571; SNP 1159; Lab 742; Con 555; Grn 136; LD 50; I4S 43 2017: Ind 2343; SNP 1322; Lab 707; Con 723; Grn 62; LD 47 Mar 15by: SNP 1620; Lab 1009; Ind 756; Con 255; Grn 90 (SNP hold) 2012: Ind 2541; SNP 861, 168; Lab 788; Con 125 2007: Ind 1385, 780; Lab 1330; SNP 1156, 517; Con 252; LD 137; SSP 55 The obvious question from these numbers is what sort of Independent the late councillor was. As usual BallotBoxScotland has the figures, and in 2022 his second preferences mildly favoured Labour: if you look at the second preference votes of everyone who had him as first preference you get Lab 753, SNP 507, Con 478, Green 196, Lib Dem 117, IfS 72, non-transferable 448. That's not enough for Labour to overtake the SNP on its own, but it is enough to make them favoured once you take Tory transfers into account; BBS has worked out a two party preferred vote between Labour and the SNP which is Lab 41.4% SNP 36.7%. And that's on 2022 votes; based on how Scottish politics has gone since I think you'd expect Labour to take this quite comfortably. All numbers from the BBS preview: ballotbox.scot/preview-armadale-blackridge/ |
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Aug 17, 2024 10:10:00 GMT
The ward is in the Bathgate & Linlithgow constituency which is much the stronger of Labour's two seats in West Lothian. The SNP in the central belt tended in their post-2015 heyday to do best of all in the New Towns, including Livingston, and they still tend to be stronger in New Town-based constituencies than elsewhere in the belt, even though all the New Towns now have Labour MPs again. This constituency however has quite a large Labour majority & in the current climate they would certainly fancy their chances especially without an independent candidate (as opposed for Independence for Scotland which is not the same thing).
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 17, 2024 10:12:39 GMT
I will be in the pub tomorrow with someone who lives in Cramlington, so I shall see what they know (probably not a lot).
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Post by johnloony on Aug 17, 2024 10:25:08 GMT
Let’s confine ourselves to discussion of next week’s council by-elections. I notice the one in Northumberland has two different Independent candidates. There is potential for a social experiment in analysing the great rivalry between them in competing for votes using different leafleting methods. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Aug 17, 2024 11:07:24 GMT
Of the three next week, one looks like a very easy Lib Dem hold, the other two look more interesting. EDIT: that appears to be the very first comment in this thread about the actual election! In the words of Willie Whitelaw, “I don’t blame anyone except, perhaps, all of us.” Thanks for your encouraging first sentence! I will be quite busy this weekend delivering leaflets in Abbots Langley on behalf of the Labour Party candidate! a thankless task, well done I mentioned abbots Langley at work in relation to being where Liz Kendall was from, I think they thought I was making it up |
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r34t
Non-Aligned
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Post by r34t on Aug 17, 2024 11:13:52 GMT
well they are standing in this one. Be interesting to see what work they do, if any. They've never struck me as interested in local politics (although that may be just my impression in my neck of the woods) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 17, 2024 11:25:08 GMT
Thanks for your encouraging first sentence! I will be quite busy this weekend delivering leaflets in Abbots Langley on behalf of the Labour Party candidate! a thankless task, well done I mentioned abbots Langley at work in relation to being where Liz Kendall was from, I think they thought I was making it up If you were going to make up a story to amuse or impress your work colleagues, 'Liz Kendall comes from Abbots Langley' would be an odd thing to come up with.. |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 17, 2024 12:35:09 GMT
a thankless task, well done I mentioned abbots Langley at work in relation to being where Liz Kendall was from, I think they thought I was making it up If you were going to make up a story to amuse or impress your work colleagues, 'Liz Kendall comes from Abbots Langley' would be an odd thing to come up with.. Depends on who your work colleagues are.  |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Aug 17, 2024 15:08:03 GMT
For Cramlington my instinct says something around Lab 40%, Con 20%, Reform 20%, others 20%. But I may be way off the mark there
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Post by sanders on Aug 17, 2024 15:36:35 GMT
For Cramlington my instinct says something around Lab 40%, Con 20%, Reform 20%, others 20%. But I may be way off the mark there Too many increments of ten, methinks. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 19, 2024 9:22:28 GMT
A good friend of mine, too, is married to a Labour Party member called David Owen. There are probably loads of them. David Owen was also the name of Labour's candidate in Lancaster at both 1974 GEs. Not sure what happened to him subsequently. |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 19, 2024 9:45:29 GMT
A good friend of mine, too, is married to a Labour Party member called David Owen. There are probably loads of them. David Owen was also the name of Labour's candidate in Lancaster at both 1974 GEs. Not sure what happened to him subsequently. There was a David Owen excluded from Blackpool's Labour group in 2022 over his social media posts. Looking at the photos in a 1974 newspaper report about the candidates in Lancaster and the 2022 report in the Lancs Live site I think there is a strong chance they are the same person. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Aug 21, 2024 11:42:37 GMT
Oh, are we back on the topic of names? I used to know a guy called Andy Christ.
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Post by phil156 on Aug 21, 2024 12:00:38 GMT
English ones count on Thursday, Scottish on Friday morning
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 21, 2024 13:16:52 GMT
Oh, are we back on the topic of names? I used to know a guy called Andy Christ. Was he by chance a sixer from Satan Close, Devil Drive, Sodom? |
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