YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Aug 16, 2024 6:36:06 GMT
Majury transfers
Con 71
Lib Dem 37
Lab 29
SNP 23
Green 11
non-transferable 54
Lib Dem transfers
Lab 120
Green 90
Con 70
SNP 33
non-transferable 69
Green transfers
Lab 289
SNP 250
Con 44
non-transferable 177
SNP transfers
Lab 436
Con 33
non-transferable 607
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Post by sanders on Aug 16, 2024 6:38:48 GMT
BallotBoxScotland's Dunblane & Bridge of Allan transfer plot:  Good result - Allan a day’s work |
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Post by sanders on Aug 16, 2024 6:45:23 GMT
I won….
…money on PaddyPower political betting
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Post by batman on Aug 16, 2024 6:50:04 GMT
STIRLING Dunblane and Bridge of Allan Stuart McLuckie (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 1,143 David Wilson (Scottish Labour Party) 952 John Watson (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 770 Andrew Adam (Scottish Greens) 659 Dick Moerman (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 345 Alastair George Majury (Independent) 225 E. 12,057; quota 2,048 David Wilson elected at stage 6 Conservatives with by far the more popular candidate here. Labour however manage to pick up the dregs and crawl over the line. Desperate stuff. But, such is STV. I don’t think that Scottish Labour’s position, even less still its current position in Stirling and Strathallan, can honestly be characterised as desperate |
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Post by andrewteale on Aug 16, 2024 7:08:45 GMT
STIRLING Dunblane and Bridge of Allan Stuart McLuckie (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 1,143 David Wilson (Scottish Labour Party) 952 John Watson (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 770 Andrew Adam (Scottish Greens) 659 Dick Moerman (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 345 Alastair George Majury (Independent) 225 E. 12,057; quota 2,048 David Wilson elected at stage 6 Quite an impressive performance by the Greens there. Maybe they could have a chance of winning if there's another Dunblane and Bridge of Allan by-election in future. The Greens currently have one seat in this ward, and if those votes were cast in a four-seat ordinary election they would hold it. That's in contrast to the two previous by-elections here, which pointed to C 2 SNP 1 Lab 1. |
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Post by matureleft on Aug 16, 2024 7:19:34 GMT
STIRLING Dunblane and Bridge of Allan Stuart McLuckie (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 1,143 David Wilson (Scottish Labour Party) 952 John Watson (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 770 Andrew Adam (Scottish Greens) 659 Dick Moerman (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 345 Alastair George Majury (Independent) 225 E. 12,057; quota 2,048 David Wilson elected at stage 6 Conservatives with by far the more popular candidate here. Labour however manage to pick up the dregs and crawl over the line. Desperate stuff. But, such is STV. Voters use the electoral system provided. This one allows people to vote for candidates with no hope without consequences - your votes continue to count until your preferences are exhausted. If they’d had a FPTP system many would undoubtedly have voted differently, being pressed into supporting whichever large party they disliked least (or voting for a likely winner they’d live with to defeat the party they disliked most). What the later distribution of preferences demonstrated was the toxicity of the Tory brand - few people transferred their votes that way regardless of their original choices. Labour was more transfer friendly. If this had been an all-up election not a by-election the Tories would still have won a seat. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 16, 2024 8:22:41 GMT
Quite an impressive performance by the Greens there. Maybe they could have a chance of winning if there's another Dunblane and Bridge of Allan by-election in future. The Greens currently have one seat in this ward, and if those votes were cast in a four-seat ordinary election they would hold it. That's in contrast to the two previous by-elections here, which pointed to C 2 SNP 1 Lab 1. What’s the student population there now? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2024 8:47:31 GMT
I am scandalised, shocked and quite frankly appalled… aren’t we all anticipating a surprise win for an independent candidate in Islington?? Corbyn carried Hillrise ward I think. Labour’s Councillor resigned under mysterious circumstances. I think Labour will come third. I base that on leaflets circulated. I’ve delivered more I’m pretty sure. Shreya is based in Barnsbury I think. There are parallels to Praful Nargund. He was also based in N1. I’m more local than Labour’s parachutee. Even though I live in Haringey! Albeit I live on the border. We have free movement with Islington! That isn't a reliable predictor of election results..... |
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Aug 16, 2024 8:48:27 GMT
STIRLING Dunblane and Bridge of Allan Stuart McLuckie (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 1,143 David Wilson (Scottish Labour Party) 952 John Watson (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 770 Andrew Adam (Scottish Greens) 659 Dick Moerman (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 345 Alastair George Majury (Independent) 225 E. 12,057; quota 2,048 David Wilson elected at stage 6 Conservatives with by far the more popular candidate here. Labour however manage to pick up the dregs and crawl over the line. Desperate stuff. But, such is STV. Despite being the marginally more popular candidate here on first preferences it looks as though McCluskie was also massively the most unpopular. |
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Post by certain on Aug 16, 2024 8:49:36 GMT
STIRLING Dunblane and Bridge of Allan Stuart McLuckie (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 1,143 David Wilson (Scottish Labour Party) 952 John Watson (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 770 Andrew Adam (Scottish Greens) 659 Dick Moerman (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 345 Alastair George Majury (Independent) 225 E. 12,057; quota 2,048 David Wilson elected at stage 6 Actually elected at stage 5 by 1826 votes to 1361 for McLuckie. Incidentally, the "quota" is irrelevant in a sngle seat election where it should not be being calulated, never mind published. |
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Post by batman on Aug 16, 2024 8:52:17 GMT
Re European Lefty's post, it won't even be true : Labour will undoubtedly have delivered more leaflets than he has done.
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Post by michaelarden on Aug 16, 2024 8:53:15 GMT
BallotBoxScotland's Dunblane & Bridge of Allan transfer plot: Would have been interesting if the Lib Dem transfers had put the Greens in front of the SNP. |
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Post by batman on Aug 16, 2024 8:56:08 GMT
So more people transferred from the Greens to Labour than from the Greens to the SNP. That's not what I would have expected. Once the SNP were eliminated it was obvious that more of their votes would transfer to Labour than to the Tories.
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Post by norflondon on Aug 16, 2024 8:57:43 GMT
Deleted
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Aug 16, 2024 9:05:16 GMT
Would now be especially and doubly extraordinary and amazing if Stoecker managed to beat the labour machine and won for the Corbynite Independent Left I'm not sure Stoecker will, but I won't fall over in surprise if they do. Labour do have the machine & there isn't the 'Corbyn' name recognition. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Aug 16, 2024 9:11:24 GMT
What time does this clown show start counting?
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Post by Robert Waller on Aug 16, 2024 9:13:47 GMT
Mildly gutted this morning to wake up to Plaid having lost Bargoed & Aberbargoed by one vote! Labour 354, Plaid 353. The first count was all square, the recouts found one for Labour I don't think we have had the full result for Caerphilly here have we? Anyone know how many votes the Green got? Please? |
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Post by sanders on Aug 16, 2024 9:13:57 GMT
What time does this clown show start counting? 11am last time I checked, mate. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Aug 16, 2024 9:17:17 GMT
Mildly gutted this morning to wake up to Plaid having lost Bargoed & Aberbargoed by one vote! Labour 354, Plaid 353. The first count was all square, the recouts found one for Labour I don't think we have had the full result for Caerphilly here have we? Anyone know how many votes the Green got? Please? Local paper are still reporting that polls have closed and the council haven't updated their website  |
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Post by tonyhil on Aug 16, 2024 9:20:46 GMT
As Lord Greaves often observed, we are now in a period of slack water with regard to polls and local by-election results, so I would like to thank sanders for providing the Forum with entertainment for the past few weeks.
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