carolus
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Post by carolus on Aug 13, 2024 18:27:23 GMT
Since I was nearby this afternoon I thought I would conduct some on-the-ground reconnaissance.
I can't claim to have conducted a thorough search of the ward, but made my way from one end to the other via a slightly circuitous route.
I noticed the St John's Way ex-pub, and thought it looked a sorry sight - I now see that had been commented on above.
In terms of political activity:
Two houses with Labour posters.
Two houses with (presumably leftover) Jeremy Corbyn posters.
Five shops with Independent (Stoecker) posters.
One shop with Labour posters.
One shop with Liberal Democrat posters.
One shop with Independent (Parr-Reid) posters.
The same shop has Lab, LD, I(P-R) and one of the sets of I(S) posters.
Independent (Stoecker)'s material prominently features Jeremy Corbyn.
I saw a house with an LD poster, but it was very close to Archway and I'm pretty sure wasn't in the ward.
There was a tree with a big cloth banner draped around it that had the word "Max" drawn on it, but also some numbers I couldn't interpret - I presume this was not a campaigning tool on the part of Independent (Parr-Reid).
I was going to mention the merits or otherwise of the Sir Robin (interesting selection of craft-ish beer, slightly suspicious condition of some of the craft-ish beer, no food), and the Delicate' Gastrobar Ukrainian restaurant (very good food, okay beer), but unfortunately they are on the wrong side of Crouch Hill station, and therefore out-of-bounds for the byelection.
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 13, 2024 18:41:37 GMT
The ward has one pub now. The Shaftesbury (Hornsey Rise). Alison has more posters. I’ve put out far more flyers, IMO.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 13, 2024 18:47:14 GMT
Around 6.5k per the 2021 census You have many HMOs in Hillrise. Leafletted 98% of properties I think. Many have up to eight doorbells. I've not seen anything like it. It's an easy ward to leaflet. 3,000 leaflets - 6,500 households does not represent the 95% delivery claimed in an earlier posting. Sticking 1 leaflet through a letterbox serving 8 households does not constitute 100% delivery. Usually it represents 0%. |
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 13, 2024 18:49:05 GMT
You have many HMOs in Hillrise. Leafletted 98% of properties I think. Many have up to eight doorbells. I've not seen anything like it. It's an easy ward to leaflet. 3,000 leaflets - 6,500 households does not represent the 95% delivery claimed in an earlier posting. Sticking 1 leaflet through a letterbox serving 8 households does not constitute 100% delivery. Usually it represents 0%. I think people can share them. Community is what my campaign emphasises. That, and local amenities in Hillrise. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 13, 2024 18:50:42 GMT
The pub (The Royal Oak) had its licence revoked in 2022 after the third serious stabbing incident in as many years. It was up for auction last years by its owners (the pub group Stonegate), but I've no idea if anyone bought it. Any serious redevelopment is probably going to involve its demolition tbh.
Blythwood has been closed since 2020 I think, and effectively was replaced by the newly refurbished Brickworks centre.
The pub just looks very depressing The youth centre idea is popular. I proposed it in the canvass. The one of a handful lol. So does Blythwood in all honesty. The Steps have always been messy. At least, since late 2020 certainly. There was a chair just dumped. It was lying there for ages. Why does Archway Road resemble Pripyat? So why not pick it up, dispose of it, photograph yourself doing so, put it on twitter/ facebook and put a sketch on your leaflets? |
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 13, 2024 18:51:11 GMT
The pub just looks very depressing The youth centre idea is popular. I proposed it in the canvass. The one of a handful lol. So does Blythwood in all honesty. The Steps have always been messy. At least, since late 2020 certainly. There was a chair just dumped. It was lying there for ages. Why does Archway Road resemble Pripyat? So why not pick it up, dispose of it, photograph yourself doing so, put it on twitter/ facebook and put a sketch on your leaflets? I have photos of it yes. |
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Post by batman on Aug 13, 2024 19:01:05 GMT
People almost never share communal letters or leaflets. I know this very well from my work. If a letter is sent to "The Residents, such-and-such an HMO address" I know either it goes in the recycling, or one of the flats takes it. Only once in a blue moon does someone public-spirited show it to the other residents. And they actually get vouchers for answering the questions. When I'm leafletting, if let's say there are 8 flats, and they don't have separate letter-boxes, I will generally leave at least 6 leaflets (one is likely to be empty and there's usually one who won't even read it, at least)
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Aug 13, 2024 19:04:05 GMT
3,000 leaflets - 6,500 households does not represent the 95% delivery claimed in an earlier posting. Sticking 1 leaflet through a letterbox serving 8 households does not constitute 100% delivery. Usually it represents 0%. Community is what my campaign emphasises. That, and local amenities in Hillrise. Yeah, that's exactly how it works. Especially in London. |
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 13, 2024 19:08:50 GMT
I think people can share them. Community is what my campaign emphasises. That, and local amenities in Hillrise. Yeah, that's exactly how it works. Especially in London. I talked to my flatmates usually. |
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Post by tonyhil on Aug 13, 2024 19:23:15 GMT
I could print 3000 A5 leaflets colour both sides at a cost to myself of about £80, and charge them out at around £150. Alternatively I could get 5000 of them on-line from a trade supplier for about £75.
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Aug 13, 2024 19:27:18 GMT
The pub just looks very depressing The youth centre idea is popular. I proposed it in the canvass. The one of a handful lol. So does Blythwood in all honesty. The Steps have always been messy. At least, since late 2020 certainly. There was a chair just dumped. It was lying there for ages. Why does Archway Road resemble Pripyat? So why not pick it up, dispose of it, photograph yourself doing so, put it on twitter/ facebook and put a sketch on your leaflets? That is sooooooo LibDem 😂 |
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Aug 13, 2024 19:29:23 GMT
They’re just handwritten leaflets quite honestly. I can’t afford massive printing charges. We are ok but not rich. Mortgage is £1800 out each month. Household income is about 100 grand. From my standpoint that's rich. Four times median household income, eight times my household income. Rich. Yes, I was thinking ‘I wish’ |
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Aug 13, 2024 19:33:48 GMT
I think it’s less hostility and more scepticism since independents have never really been a big part of UK MP numbers and FPTP is a particularly difficult system for them to get elected under. Certainly the number elected and nearly elected was a surprise albeit there was a pattern with the type of constituencies In council elections they tend to be hyper-local (which doesn’t tend to work in urban settings with a transient population) or there is a very specific & high profile local issue. there is a reason that only a microscopic number of indies get elected in cities. |
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 13, 2024 20:10:24 GMT
I got emotionally involved re: Feinstein. I see that now - sad result. Leicester South I got laughed at. Then Ashworth lost his seat too. Why are people so anti-independents here? Genuine question and not a criticism. Streeting hopefully goes down in 2029. OK, I'll bite. By 'anti-independents', do you mean (a) "Why are people sceptical about independents' chances of election?" or (b) "Why don't people like independents politically?" Regarding (a), I think it's probably because at GE after GE we've seen independent candidates energetically talking up their chances, expressing a conviction that they 'can really win this thing' and voters are 'fed up with the old parties' and 'the enthusiasm on the doorstep is palpable' and all the rest of it - only with very few exceptions to go down in flames on election day. So it wasn't unreasonable to expect last month's GE to conform to this pattern. The fact that it didn't is one of the many things I got completely wrong, and maybe it means that we are now entering a new type of electoral politics in which the old rules no longer apply. With the exception of Corbyn what we're seeing here is less the old rules no longer applying, but more the old rules applying in a different way. The new independents are all Muslim candidates in constituencies with a very large Muslim population, where the Muslim vote used to be overwhelmingly Labour (often because that's how they've been told to vote by "community leaders"). The only thing that's changed is that the community has collectively decided to back an independent rather than Labour. Essentially the same thing that happened in Galloway's by-election victories. I think it’s less hostility and more scepticism since independents have never really been a big part of UK MP numbers and FPTP is a particularly difficult system for them to get elected under. Certainly the number elected and nearly elected was a surprise albeit there was a pattern with the type of constituencies In council elections they tend to be hyper-local (which doesn’t tend to work in urban settings with a transient population) or there is a very specific & high profile local issue. there is a reason that only a microscopic number of indies get elected in cities. It's not just the increased transience of urban populations. It's also the fact that large urban areas invariably have large ward sizes (in terms of population). And the larger the ward the bigger the team you need to cover it for both leafletting and canvassing. Which means that party candidates have e bigger advantage over independents than they do in the smaller population wards that are typical in small towns and rural areas. Also, non-partisan parish councils (which are often the way in for independents) are rarer, and where they do exist are less likely to give you name-recognition across most of a principal authority ward. |
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Post by edgbaston on Aug 13, 2024 22:36:36 GMT
Appreciate it may have been mentioned somewhere within the 33 pages but is Hillrise counting overnight?
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wallington
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Post by wallington on Aug 13, 2024 22:49:46 GMT
So why not pick it up, dispose of it, photograph yourself doing so, put it on twitter/ facebook and put a sketch on your leaflets? I have photos of it yes. Does Islington Council have an app you can use to report issues? Genuine question. Seems odd that this chair would be lying there for a long time. I use an app to report issues like this where I live, and things normally get sorted same day. I'm often reporting flytipping issues when I'm out and about. |
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 14, 2024 1:18:36 GMT
Does Islington Council have an app you can use to report issues? Genuine question. Seems odd that this chair would be lying there for a long time. I use an app to report issues like this where I live, and things normally get sorted same day. I'm often reporting flytipping issues when I'm out and about. The Steps need a few things: 1) Better lighting (women would appreciate that); 2) CCTV cameras (to discourage muggers there; 3) E-bike docking station at the bottom; 4) Some pruning back of overgrown plants; 5) A bloody hose down / pressure wash; 6) Some partial resurfacing here and there; 7) A way to take a bike down; 8) More regular litter patrols on them; 9) We could improve the green space; 10) Replace orange lighting with brighter colours. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Aug 14, 2024 7:13:19 GMT
The obvious prediction for Dunblane & Bridge of Allan is for a Tory win, given that they won the other two by-elections in this ward. But if Labour, whose result in Stirling & Strathallan was one of their more impressive Westminster gains, can get ahead of the SNP (and they were close to doing so in the second by-election) could they be in with a chance of taking this?
The circumstances of the by-election might not help them, though.
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 14, 2024 9:34:38 GMT
Was just leafletting again. Abandonment abounds.
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Aug 14, 2024 12:15:39 GMT
Ladbrokes betting latest: Islington Labour 1/4 Green 6/1 Ind - Stoecker 7/1 Lib Dem 80/1 Ind - Parr Reid 500/1 Interesting the Green/Stoecker odds, wrong way round I'd have thought |
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