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Post by batman on Aug 12, 2024 17:39:30 GMT
You might be overstating his popularity a little bit because the other Labor Party candidate in that of election got just 59 votes less than him. Actually her election history is quite interesting - she can't seem to win an election for love nor money. She lost in 2022, then stood in the subsequent by-election lost and then stood in the general election in SW Hertfordshire and didnt win that one! 59 votes is still a fair difference, in his case the difference between victory & defeat. I am not aware that he had stood for election before, but he is quite well-known at least to a fair section of the population. And he is a very, very hard man to dislike. I don't know anyone who knows him who has negative feelings about him, other than he was silly to resign after a week. |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Aug 12, 2024 18:22:59 GMT
It normally takes several months for any government to acquire any negative incumbency factor. In the case of the last one it was nearly two years; it was not until late 2021 that they finally started to dip below the Labour Party in the polls. One month is unlikely to be sufficient for it to register. That doesn't necessarily mean that Labour will do brilliantly in the by-election, but if they don't do all that well it's much more likely to be about negative perceptions of Islington Council than of the Labour Government. The unexplained resignation of a councillor often causes a negative effect too, but not invariably. Never accuse council by-election results of always being logical. My experience is that on 87% of occasions one can accuse council by-election results of being logical 73% of the time. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Aug 12, 2024 20:43:08 GMT
Sorry, have I missed something here?
Please assure me that it's as interesting as you've just made it sound.
Importing Chinese honey with a high sugar cane adulteration percentage, smuggled to avoid post-Brexit customs payments & quality controls. Also known as 'Honeygate'. Or something like that.  Ah, so *that's* what the handwritten letter upthread by J.G.Harston was about! It all makes perfect sense now... |
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Post by batman on Aug 12, 2024 20:57:56 GMT
Importing Chinese honey with a high sugar cane adulteration percentage, smuggled to avoid post-Brexit customs payments & quality controls. Also known as 'Honeygate'. Or something like that. Ah, so *that's* what the handwritten letter upthread by J.G.Harston was about! It all makes perfect sense now... the proportion of what he writes that makes sense is arguable. |
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 13, 2024 3:25:44 GMT
Almost 3,000 leaflets delivered - let's go.
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Post by edgbaston on Aug 13, 2024 16:08:08 GMT
Almost 3,000 leaflets delivered - let's go. Still hand written in felt tip? |
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 13, 2024 16:09:28 GMT
Almost 3,000 leaflets delivered - let's go. Still hand written in felt tip? 85% of them are handwritten, yes. Felt tips have mostly run out. Might switch to invisible ink soon. Just did another few streets today. Sharpie markers > political parties' glossy crap. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Aug 13, 2024 16:24:32 GMT
I’ve deleted a poll thread about one of these by-elections, I really don’t think it’s what this part of the board is for
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 13, 2024 16:28:17 GMT
If this approach proves to be less than fully successful, would you consider using, a là Banksy, stencils for your next set of leaflets and maybe also use newspaper cuttings a là the Sex Pistols album Never Mind the B******* ...? If it works, other will follow. |
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tonyhil
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Post by tonyhil on Aug 13, 2024 16:31:09 GMT
I am coming to the conclusion that all this is a very successful con, on us rather than the electorate. Several people proposed this early on when you posted pictures of the leaflets. I'll be frank, if I received a hand-written election leaflet I would think 'nutter' - this isn't what I think you are, but it would be my response. And if you really have spent your time during the campaign hand-writing 3000 leaflets, which I rather doubt, then it is an incredibly wasteful way to occupy yourself. I am baffled by the contrast between your apparent naivety about British electoral politics, and your informed and interesting commentary on the US election - reminds me of Richard Allan who was excellent on the US sites, and was usually dyspeptic and unpleasant on the rest of the threads (which I am also not saying that you are). I don't usually dispense advice, but I believe that family should come first in one's priorities, work second, and politics third (or fourth, or fifth). And if there are choices to be made then it is politics that gets the chop every time. I don't wish you good luck on Thursday, but I wish you luck with your life.
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Post by batman on Aug 13, 2024 16:33:11 GMT
I’ve deleted a poll thread about one of these by-elections, I really don’t think it’s what this part of the board is for thank you. |
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 13, 2024 16:36:09 GMT
They’re just handwritten leaflets quite honestly. I can’t afford massive printing charges. We are ok but not rich. Mortgage is £1800 out each month. Household income is about 100 grand. I’m doing my best to campaign.
Posting handmade leaflets, not dog shit. I have done all 3,000 yes. My income is largely passive nowadays. Gambling, premium bonds, stocks and shares.
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 13, 2024 16:39:25 GMT
I see on X, you promise you will fight to turn the old St John's Way pub into a youth club for local young people. Commendable and the sort of campaign that will get your name mentioned and better known in that particular corner of Islington. I may have to revise my prediction that you will achieve less than 2% of the vote I hate how it’s sat empty. Blythwood Road community centre looks closed. Archway Road Steps are a state. |
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islington
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Post by islington on Aug 13, 2024 16:41:40 GMT
I am coming to the conclusion that all this is a very successful con, on us rather than the electorate. Several people proposed this early on when you posted pictures of the leaflets. I'll be frank, if I received a hand-written election leaflet I would think 'nutter' - this isn't what I think you are, but it would be my response. And if you really have spent your time during the campaign hand-writing 3000 leaflets, which I rather doubt, then it is an incredibly wasteful way to occupy yourself. I am baffled by the contrast between your apparent naivety about British electoral politics, and your informed and interesting commentary on the US election - reminds me of Richard Allan who was excellent on the US sites, and was usually dyspeptic and unpleasant on the rest of the threads (which I am also not saying that you are). I don't usually dispense advice, but I believe that family should come first in one's priorities, work second, and politics third (or fourth, or fifth). And if there are choices to be made then it is politics that gets the chop every time. I don't wish you good luck on Thursday, but I wish you luck with your life. I agree with most of this post but the 'apparent naivety' remark has to be qualified by the acknowledgment that at the recent GE sanders turned out to be completely right about Islington N and very nearly right about Ilford N, regarding both of which, especially the latter, I thought at the time (but fortunately did not say) he was talking through his hat. |
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 13, 2024 16:46:47 GMT
I honestly miss Richard Allan Esquire.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Aug 13, 2024 16:48:37 GMT
I am coming to the conclusion that all this is a very successful con, on us rather than the electorate. Several people proposed this early on when you posted pictures of the leaflets. I'll be frank, if I received a hand-written election leaflet I would think 'nutter' - this isn't what I think you are, but it would be my response. And if you really have spent your time during the campaign hand-writing 3000 leaflets, which I rather doubt, then it is an incredibly wasteful way to occupy yourself. I am baffled by the contrast between your apparent naivety about British electoral politics, and your informed and interesting commentary on the US election - reminds me of Richard Allan who was excellent on the US sites, and was usually dyspeptic and unpleasant on the rest of the threads (which I am also not saying that you are). I don't usually dispense advice, but I believe that family should come first in one's priorities, work second, and politics third (or fourth, or fifth). And if there are choices to be made then it is politics that gets the chop every time. I don't wish you good luck on Thursday, but I wish you luck with your life. I agree with most of this post but the 'apparent naivety' remark has to be qualified by the acknowledgment that at the recent GE sanders turned out to be completely right about Islington N and very nearly right about Ilford N, regarding both of which, especially the latter, I thought at the time (but fortunately did not say) he was talking through his hat. Ilford North is certainly fair, however I don’t think predicting that Corbyn would win Islington North was particularly outlandish, the forum poll was near enough split down the middle on it |
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 13, 2024 16:51:02 GMT
I agree with most of this post but the 'apparent naivety' remark has to be qualified by the acknowledgment that at the recent GE sanders turned out to be completely right about Islington N and very nearly right about Ilford N, regarding both of which, especially the latter, I thought at the time (but fortunately did not say) he was talking through his hat. Ilford North is certainly fair, however I don’t think predicting that Corbyn would win Islington North was particularly outlandish, the forum poll was near enough split down the middle on it But that would suggest close results? It wasn't close whatsoever, nowhere near. Obviously I live over the road. Still, the poll was very weird. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Aug 13, 2024 16:52:24 GMT
Ilford North is certainly fair, however I don’t think predicting that Corbyn would win Islington North was particularly outlandish, the forum poll was near enough split down the middle on it But that would suggest close results? It wasn't close whatsoever, nowhere near. What I mean is that a good number of other people predicted the same, it wasn’t one that came out of nowhere And I think a majority of people agreed that Corbyn winning was at least a possibility |
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Aug 13, 2024 16:55:42 GMT
But that would suggest close results? It wasn't close whatsoever, nowhere near. And I think a majority of people agreed that Corbyn winning was at least a possibility What were they smoking (gimme gimme)? |
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Post by batman on Aug 13, 2024 16:57:17 GMT
There were all these congratulations at the time for his predictions about Ilford North. Without wishing to seem mean, the prediction was (and it was worded in, at times, pretty offensive terms IMHO, and I say that as someone who is no great fan of Wes Streeting) that Mohamed would win the seat and that Streeting would lose. This did not happen. Yes it was a poor result for him, but he won. Other predictions were at times very wild indeed - I'm sure most of you would be able to identify one or two in particular. (Just to make clear, I did predict that Jeremy Corbyn would be elected, and voted thus in the poll - one of a generally pretty sound, though I say it myself, set of constituency predictions. I got some wrong, but really not many.)
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