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Post by sanders on Aug 12, 2024 12:23:37 GMT
Yes probably true. As far as I can see no one knows the reasons why the councillor for Hillrise elected in May resigned in July: there is some suggestions on X that It may be connected the Westminster honey trap scandal. A colleague of mine in Harrow tells me that there is a similar case there. An established 25 year long councillor was suspended by labour about 18 months ago - no one knows the reason and he's been sitting as an independent ever since Urban London being very different to Somerset coalfield villages - does X have a substantial 'usage' - for want of a better word ? It just doesn't figure round this neck of the woods, no real political cut-through. The 'Cllr Y was elected in May & then resigns in July' stuff will only have an impact if people know who Cllr Y is/was in the first place (whether they care less if they do know is another matter) & how will they know that ? Genuinely curious They don't know why for sure. They just know they're voting again. Or, realistically, they're mostly not voting. Khan's win inflated Labour's May win. Islington Greens would've done better otherwise. Hope Steadman is doing OK, honestly. I wish him no ill will whatsoever. 'Stay the course' is on leaflets. Of course it is - that's politics. I think it cuts through somewhat. Especially among higher information voters here. It came up on Hornsey Lane once. Someone on Highcroft Road said honeytrap. I have no evidence of that. She compared things to Huw Edwards. Again, I can't confirm anything TBH. Thanks for everyone's engagement on here. I'm glad I stood for this. I probably won't win, quite honestly. I don't regret running at all. |
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Post by norflondon on Aug 12, 2024 12:25:49 GMT
No imo X is not important in these sorts of circumstances. the two independent candidates have followers in total 188 and 163. The labour candidate has 5,300
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Post by islington on Aug 12, 2024 12:25:57 GMT
Yes probably true. As far as I can see no one knows the reasons why the councillor for Hillrise elected in May resigned in July: there is some suggestions on X that It may be connected the Westminster honey trap scandal. A colleague of mine in Harrow tells me that there is a similar case there. An established 25 year long councillor was suspended by labour about 18 months ago - no one knows the reason and he's been sitting as an independent ever since Sorry, have I missed something here?
Please assure me that it's as interesting as you've just made it sound.
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r34t
Non-Aligned
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Post by r34t on Aug 12, 2024 12:31:29 GMT
Yes probably true. As far as I can see no one knows the reasons why the councillor for Hillrise elected in May resigned in July: there is some suggestions on X that It may be connected the Westminster honey trap scandal. A colleague of mine in Harrow tells me that there is a similar case there. An established 25 year long councillor was suspended by labour about 18 months ago - no one knows the reason and he's been sitting as an independent ever since Sorry, have I missed something here?
Please assure me that it's as interesting as you've just made it sound.
Importing Chinese honey with a high sugar cane adulteration percentage, smuggled to avoid post-Brexit customs payments & quality controls. Also known as 'Honeygate'. Or something like that.  |
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Post by greatkingrat on Aug 12, 2024 12:32:50 GMT
No imo X is not important in these sorts of circumstances. the two independent candidates have followers in total 188 and 163. The labour candidate has 5,300 Particularly when 95% of those 188 followers appear to be bots with profile pictures of scantily clad ladies. |
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r34t
Non-Aligned
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Post by r34t on Aug 12, 2024 12:34:41 GMT
No imo X is not important in these sorts of circumstances. the two independent candidates have followers in total 188 and 163. The labour candidate has 5,300 Particularly when 95% of those 188 followers appear to be bots with profile pictures of scantily clad ladies. Great research !! Someone else bored at work ? |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 12, 2024 12:35:44 GMT
No imo X is not important in these sorts of circumstances. the two independent candidates have followers in total 188 and 163. The labour candidate has 5,300 Particularly when 95% of those 188 followers appear to be bots with profile pictures of scantily clad ladies. Scantily clad ladies are people too Dougal! |
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 12, 2024 12:55:10 GMT
It'd be wise to produce bilingual leaflets here, west of the Conwy valley, but it's by no means a requirement for a by-election. In fact, I'm fairly sure Reform's leaflet was monolingual English even for the GE last month. Not surprising, Reform is unlikely to lose many prospective voters thanks to not providing a Welsh translation. I think it depends on where. There's a portion of the Welsh-speaking rural vote - who tend to switch between Plaid and the Tories who would consider Reform. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Aug 12, 2024 13:03:25 GMT
Particularly when 95% of those 188 followers appear to be bots with profile pictures of scantily clad ladies. Scantily clad ladies are people too Dougal! Those ladies were in the nip Ted! |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 12, 2024 13:06:05 GMT
I think it depends on where. There's a portion of the Welsh-speaking rural vote - who tend to switch between Plaid and the Tories who would consider Reform. Yes, given the 'generic NOTA' aspect to their vote and, perhaps this is speculative but I think there's something to it, the aspect motivated by bitterness at Covid restrictions. |
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iang
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Post by iang on Aug 12, 2024 13:47:07 GMT
Back to Hillrise, there certainly was an effect on the Labour vote in 2022 when councillors resigned very soon after being elected, so it's not implausible that the same sort if thing could happen here (though if I remember correctly, only in Camden in what was already a reasonably close seat did it result in Labour losing)
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Post by sanders on Aug 12, 2024 13:59:29 GMT
This one's harder for Labour though. At least in Camden - multiple by-elections. Kentish Town South, Camden Square, Kilburn. On the same day next month.
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batman
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Post by batman on Aug 12, 2024 14:01:23 GMT
Labour's loss in Hampstead Town was almost inevitable as the councillor (a personal friend of mine as it happens) had resigned after only a week. He had clearly not believed he had a chance of victory & had only done a rather modest, though not completely non-existent, amount of canvassing. I thought that as he is a person with a very high profile in the Jewish community & an obviously really good bloke he did have an outside chance, but a representative of the Jewish Labour Movement (of which he is a prominent member) advised me not to canvass for him as he didn't have a chance.....The only question was who would gain his seat, and the LDs stood the former councillor for the ward (who for some reason had not stood in the main elections), who won. Since then the retired Labour councillor has married the President of the Board of Jewish Deputies (who has now completed her term) and become Senior Vice-President himself. Had it happened in a less unlikely Labour ward it's possible Labour could just about have held on, but he was a silly sausage/worsht to stand in an election that he thought he couldn't win, win it & then resign.
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iang
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Post by iang on Aug 12, 2024 15:30:22 GMT
Precisely- so whatever the seemingly still obscure circumstances of this resignation, the likely outcome would seem to be a reduction in the Labour vote, but not a Labour defeat
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Post by norflondon on Aug 12, 2024 15:31:26 GMT
Agreed and that is reflected in the prediction I have given
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Post by sanders on Aug 12, 2024 15:32:13 GMT
Precisely- so whatever the seemingly still obscure circumstances of this resignation, the likely outcome would seem to be a reduction in the Labour vote, but not a Labour defeat But the differences between this one and Hampstead Town are twofold: the Corbyn factor; and Labour are now in government. Those count for something. |
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Aug 12, 2024 15:36:17 GMT
I don't see that Labour being in government will be a factor yet. If anything, at this stage it might be a positive
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batman
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Post by batman on Aug 12, 2024 15:38:55 GMT
It normally takes several months for any government to acquire any negative incumbency factor. In the case of the last one it was nearly two years; it was not until late 2021 that they finally started to dip below the Labour Party in the polls. One month is unlikely to be sufficient for it to register. That doesn't necessarily mean that Labour will do brilliantly in the by-election, but if they don't do all that well it's much more likely to be about negative perceptions of Islington Council than of the Labour Government. The unexplained resignation of a councillor often causes a negative effect too, but not invariably. Never accuse council by-election results of always being logical.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 12, 2024 16:48:36 GMT
I think it depends on where. There's a portion of the Welsh-speaking rural vote - who tend to switch between Plaid and the Tories who would consider Reform. Yes, given the 'generic NOTA' aspect to their vote and, perhaps this is speculative but I think there's something to it, the aspect motivated by bitterness at Covid restrictions. My direct experience of Welsh speaking rurals was any bitterness over Covid was that the restrictions were too lax. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 12, 2024 17:27:59 GMT
I think you do see fatigue. Elections in May / July - now again. I guess the independents benefit most? I've seen Labour and Independent leaflets. Hardy anything from Greens or LDs. Might this gap be a record? Two months into the elected term. Someone probably knows if that's true.
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