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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 11, 2024 18:30:20 GMT
I will be drafting the Preview for this ward later today and this thread will be taken into consideration. Isn't the phrase "will be written down, and may be taken into consideration"?  |
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 11, 2024 18:46:19 GMT
In that case, would be more apt for people who vote Reform despite being Tory members and identifying themselves as "Conservatives", surely? Err, no. Perhaps this is overly flattering to myself, but it wasn’t easy to vote Reform. Even whilst I was staring at the paper pen in hand I had second thoughts. However, it was something I felt I had to do to send a message. If the Conservatives hadn’t done so badly, it would have thought it could betray our voters with impunity. I couldn’t allow that to happen. I have been in the Conservatives for 8 years and I still feel a great sense of loyalty to it, even if they don’t feel that to me, and it will take a lot for me to leave it. What do you think re Tim Kirkhope's article? www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/aug/10/conservative-party-shifted-right-centre-groundCan the Conservative party genuinely agree? |
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Post by sanders on Aug 11, 2024 18:58:30 GMT
Fine - prove it in this context. You can’t - nobody here can, ofc. That’s not the vibe we’re getting. I’m second or first quite honestly. Look at the leaflets actually delivered. Islington’s an against political parties area. Your "benchmark" of 255 is unlikely to put you in the top two unless it's a truly dismal turnout - <10% Your figures just don't make sense. No reason for a high turnout. Or even a moderate one TBH. Nobody knows why there’s a by-election. Steadman quit but why was that? Plus the palpable pro-Corbyn anti-Labour sentiment. Plus Labour are the Islington establishment. Plus Labour now run the country. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 11, 2024 19:02:13 GMT
I don’t think that batman was blaming you for this thread being “out of control” (and, incidentally, I don’t think that this thread is out of control anyway). The only potential problem is that lots of people are commenting more often than would be usual for a thread of this kind. I think the main reason is that people want to inflate the length of the thread so that there will be a bigger probability of the number of pages in the thread bing more than the number of votes you get. Surely not? They might ... |
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Post by sanders on Aug 11, 2024 20:35:53 GMT
]I think Caerphilly is very difficult to predict from afar I have to say. Welsh local elections have a habit of doing strange things, especially at by-elections My nearest contacts are in Pontypridd and when asked it was "Umm, Bargoed, dunno", My research makes me think it will be fairly tight but I am leaning towards a narrow Plaid gain. Ask me again when I do my prediction on Wednesday pm or Thursday am. The results are emBargoed until Thursday. |
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Aug 11, 2024 21:02:32 GMT
A thought has just occurred to me about the horrors of fighting a by-election in Wales. Hand-writing bi-lingual leaflets! Am hunllef.
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Post by sanders on Aug 12, 2024 1:24:45 GMT
A thought has just occurred to me about the horrors of fighting a by-election in Wales. Hand-writing bi-lingual leaflets! Am hunllef. Golly gosh. I'd struggle with that. |
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Foggy
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Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Aug 12, 2024 2:24:42 GMT
It'd be wise to produce bilingual leaflets here, west of the Conwy valley, but it's by no means a requirement for a by-election. In fact, I'm fairly sure Reform's leaflet was monolingual English even for the GE last month.
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Post by sanders on Aug 12, 2024 3:24:28 GMT
Multicultural London English for Hillrise maybe? I have a glottal stop (London-born). Estuary English is how I talk.
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Post by sanders on Aug 12, 2024 9:14:26 GMT
A thought has just occurred to me about the horrors of fighting a by-election in Wales. Hand-writing bi-lingual leaflets! Am hunllef. Am surprised the leaflets in this election do not contain some messages in foreign languages EG Polish Portuguese Arabic Somalian... Nandas Labour leaflets must be one of the most dullest leaflets ever printed...she says her three pledges are, being an "active presence and will take action against antisocial crime and continue the great work of Islington Council" If one goes through X, we see that Nanda is out every day and she usually has six or seven volunteers with her and they appear to be fairly different each time not the same volunteers; so she's getting out there and has got a fair amount of support from fellow members The Liberal Democrats appear to be doing very little and the Greens are doing approximately zero in terms of street campaigning. Alison and Labour are fairly active. Alison more so based on leaflets. Almost as active as I am. May the best person win here. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on Aug 12, 2024 10:07:49 GMT
It'd be wise to produce bilingual leaflets here, west of the Conwy valley, but it's by no means a requirement for a by-election. In fact, I'm fairly sure Reform's leaflet was monolingual English even for the GE last month. Would this help:  |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 12, 2024 10:17:20 GMT
It'd be wise to produce bilingual leaflets here, west of the Conwy valley, but it's by no means a requirement for a by-election. In fact, I'm fairly sure Reform's leaflet was monolingual English even for the GE last month. Not surprising, Reform is unlikely to lose many prospective voters thanks to not providing a Welsh translation. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 12, 2024 10:59:42 GMT
A thought has just occurred to me about the horrors of fighting a by-election in Wales. Hand-writing bi-lingual leaflets! Am hunllef. Anodd iawn i dweud y gwir. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 12, 2024 11:02:19 GMT
It'd be wise to produce bilingual leaflets here, west of the Conwy valley, but it's by no means a requirement for a by-election. In fact, I'm fairly sure Reform's leaflet was monolingual English even for the GE last month. Not surprising, Reform is unlikely to lose many prospective voters thanks to not providing a Welsh translation. Might actually annoy some of its target voters by doing so ... |
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Post by norflondon on Aug 12, 2024 11:22:50 GMT
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Post by batman on Aug 12, 2024 11:35:18 GMT
shouldn't have thought it would be much of an issue. They've recently voted in a general election and just before that a Mayoral/GLA election where they were also required to produce ID.
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 12, 2024 11:36:03 GMT
Voter ID required in HILLRISE but not in Bargoed. I wonder how many electors will be caught out in London and not have any photographic ID on them and not bother to return to vote And how many will travel to Wales and try and vote there instead. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Aug 12, 2024 11:38:25 GMT
The sort of people who aren't aware of the ID rules are likely to be the same people who wouldn't vote in a local by-election anyway.
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Aug 12, 2024 11:54:24 GMT
shouldn't have thought it would be much of an issue. They've recently voted in a general election and just before that a Mayoral/GLA election where they were also required to produce ID. Postal voters don't need ID & I'd have thought they will be the biggest bloc |
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r34t
Non-Aligned
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Post by r34t on Aug 12, 2024 12:13:42 GMT
Yes probably true. As far as I can see no one knows the reasons why the councillor for Hillrise elected in May resigned in July: there is some suggestions on X that It may be connected the Westminster honey trap scandal. A colleague of mine in Harrow tells me that there is a similar case there. An established 25 year long councillor was suspended by labour about 18 months ago - no one knows the reason and he's been sitting as an independent ever since Urban London being very different to Somerset coalfield villages - does X have a substantial 'usage' - for want of a better word ? It just doesn't figure round this neck of the woods, no real political cut-through. The 'Cllr Y was elected in May & then resigns in July' stuff will only have an impact if people know who Cllr Y is/was in the first place (whether they care less if they do know is another matter) & how will they know that ? Genuinely curious |
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