nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,000
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Post by nyx on Aug 11, 2024 12:26:20 GMT
I'm surprised there's been no comment about my prediction for a PC gain in Caerphilly. I predicted the same a few days ago (though I'm not certain of the prediction). Must have been lost in the disproportionately large amount of discussion about the by-election in London. |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,124
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Post by ColinJ on Aug 11, 2024 12:36:28 GMT
I'm surprised there's been no comment about my prediction for a PC gain in Caerphilly. I predicted the same a few days ago (though I'm not certain of the prediction). Must have been lost in the disproportionately large amount of discussion about the by-election in London. There's a by-election in North London? I missed that. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 11, 2024 12:49:55 GMT
Out of control? I’m defending myself.
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Post by johnloony on Aug 11, 2024 13:58:48 GMT
Yellowperil was born in 1939, if I remember correctly. |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 11, 2024 14:05:32 GMT
Out of control? I’m defending myself. I don’t think that batman was blaming you for this thread being “out of control” (and, incidentally, I don’t think that this thread is out of control anyway). The only potential problem is that lots of people are commenting more often than would be usual for a thread of this kind. I think the main reason is that people want to inflate the length of the thread so that there will be a bigger probability of the number of pages in the thread bing more than the number of votes you get. |
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Post by batman on Aug 11, 2024 14:45:49 GMT
I was blaming him partly, however I'm not saying that he should shoulder 100% of the blame for it.
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Post by noorderling on Aug 11, 2024 15:03:53 GMT
Out of control? I’m defending myself. I don’t think that batman was blaming you for this thread being “out of control” (and, incidentally, I don’t think that this thread is out of control anyway). The only potential problem is that lots of people are commenting more often than would be usual for a thread of this kind. I think the main reason is that people want to inflate the length of the thread so that there will be a bigger probability of the number of pages in the thread bing more than the number of votes you get. Surely not? |
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Post by sanders on Aug 11, 2024 15:29:58 GMT
Out of control? I’m defending myself. I don’t think that batman was blaming you for this thread being “out of control” (and, incidentally, I don’t think that this thread is out of control anyway). The only potential problem is that lots of people are commenting more often than would be usual for a thread of this kind. I think the main reason is that people want to inflate the length of the thread so that there will be a bigger probability of the number of pages in the thread bing more than the number of votes you get. I see. Good luck with that. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Aug 11, 2024 15:39:01 GMT
Numbers of leaflets alone do not pick up votes Amount of posts on an internet forum don't either though that isn't stopping them from trying! |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Aug 11, 2024 15:39:55 GMT
I will be drafting the Preview for this ward later today and this thread will be taken into consideration. I can imagine that regular readers who aren't members of the forum might not be rushing to join after being introduced to this thread. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Aug 11, 2024 15:41:19 GMT
Threads can be "anchored" so new posts can be added while not bumping it up the board.
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Post by sanders on Aug 11, 2024 15:59:34 GMT
Threads can be "anchored" so new posts can be added while not bumping it up the board. I don’t mind that at all. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 11, 2024 15:59:58 GMT
Numbers of leaflets alone do not pick up votes Amount of posts on an internet forum don't either though that isn't stopping them from trying! Now who are you referring to? |
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Post by swanarcadian on Aug 11, 2024 16:02:39 GMT
Threads can be "anchored" so new posts can be added while not bumping it up the board. That is true. But anything posted on such threads will still appear on “Recently updated posts”. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 11, 2024 17:08:34 GMT
I only post in response, FYI.
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 11, 2024 17:11:16 GMT
]I think Caerphilly is very difficult to predict from afar I have to say. Welsh local elections have a habit of doing strange things, especially at by-elections My nearest contacts are in Pontypridd and when asked it was "Umm, Bargoed, dunno", My research makes me think it will be fairly tight but I am leaning towards a narrow Plaid gain. Ask me again when I do my prediction on Wednesday pm or Thursday am. |
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 604 
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Post by Ports on Aug 11, 2024 17:14:21 GMT
I'm pleased that norflondon has helped steer the conversation - perhaps it is a testament to the character of norflondon that he managed to turn the discussion away from his own namesake. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Aug 11, 2024 18:08:06 GMT
In that case, would be more apt for people who vote Reform despite being Tory members and identifying themselves as "Conservatives", surely? Err, no. Perhaps this is overly flattering to myself, but it wasn’t easy to vote Reform. Even whilst I was staring at the paper pen in hand I had second thoughts. However, it was something I felt I had to do to send a message. If the Conservatives hadn’t done so badly, it would have thought it could betray our voters with impunity. I couldn’t allow that to happen. I have been in the Conservatives for 8 years and I still feel a great sense of loyalty to it, even if they don’t feel that to me, and it will take a lot for me to leave it. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 11, 2024 18:21:20 GMT
The vast majority of leaflets go in the bin unread (excluding the 5 second rule) Fine - prove it in this context. You can’t - nobody here can, ofc. That’s not the vibe we’re getting. I’m second or first quite honestly. Look at the leaflets actually delivered. Islington’s an against political parties area. Your "benchmark" of 255 is unlikely to put you in the top two unless it's a truly dismal turnout - <10% Your figures just don't make sense. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 11, 2024 18:22:52 GMT
I’m tired of these wild predictions. Stop making them then. |
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