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Post by sanders on Aug 11, 2024 9:05:01 GMT
I will be drafting the Preview for this ward later today and this thread will be taken into consideration. We look forward to it, Andrew. |
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cathyc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,058
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Post by cathyc on Aug 11, 2024 9:24:23 GMT
MP for Islington North in 2034. If you get cracking now in time for 2034 you might be able to get 40,000 leaflets handwritten for your Election Address. I'd advise being your own agent and not changing your address for the next ten years otherwise you might have to Tippex and rewrite the imprint. Knowing what the issues will be this far out might may more of a problem but then it hasn't been a barrier for you yet. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 11, 2024 9:31:11 GMT
Hillrise turnout feels about right, XD. The rest is somewhat more questionable. Corbyn isn’t exactly endorsing Alison, really. They are pictured together for sure. But that’s more or less it. 30 votes from 2,500+ leaflets lol? The yield likely will exceed that. To batman, people appreciate handwritten literature. Why is that the case here? It suggests genuine effort from me. Contrast that with Mr Steadman’s antics. People read them because they’re homespun. 30 votes is a funny prediction. Why is it so funny then? Because it’s easy to exceed it. I’m confident it misses a 0. I’ve played the local card hugely. Plus Hillrise’s western end is prosperous. Which means higher turnouts I’d posit. Whitehall Park will not vote Alison. And sharpies are better than watermelons. May the best candidate win it. At least you’ve lowered your expectations. People thought I’d never win Standing. Eliminated first they all thought once. I have defied detractors once before. I will confound Vote UK critics. My benchmark is actually 255 votes. My Oxford Union Secretary result in MT18. 17.4% and 18.09% after STV transfers. It’s what Perot got in Pennsylvania. Mansfield’s Rickersey got 17.4% in 2005. He stood as Mansfield Independent Forum. It’s psychologically true running independently, IMHO. I’ve never needed a slate / party. It suggests disorganisation from someone who can’t even organise a proper leaflet being properly printed. That’s rubbish and you know it. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,725 
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Post by J.G.Harston on Aug 11, 2024 9:42:55 GMT
Have you forgotten again? Nurse! He's wandering again! |
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Post by sanders on Aug 11, 2024 9:45:55 GMT
Have you forgotten again? Nurse! He's wandering again! Delete that. Grandma died with dementia. At 88, you should know better. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 11, 2024 9:47:18 GMT
That’s rubbish and you know it. I agree that your leaflets are rubbish Your namesake was Woolwich MP lol? What happened - why be a loon? |
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Post by sanders on Aug 11, 2024 9:49:37 GMT
Fundamentally unserious politician. I know you are. But the point is the ratio. The point is your ratio, yes. |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 11, 2024 9:52:51 GMT
A majority based on canvassing feedback. Do you know who I am? What canvassing ? To be fair, he has said that he has canvassed a whole 0.1% of the ward. |
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,166
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Post by r34t on Aug 11, 2024 9:53:38 GMT
To be fair, he has said that he has canvassed a whole 0.1% of the ward. true .... |
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Post by sanders on Aug 11, 2024 9:55:35 GMT
To be fair, he has said that he has canvassed a whole 0.1% of the ward. true .... I don’t have the time sadly. Leafleting is far more efficient too. Plus autism doesn’t help on doorsteps. |
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r34t
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,166
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Post by r34t on Aug 11, 2024 9:58:36 GMT
I don’t have the time sadly. Leafleting is far more efficient too. Plus autism doesn’t help on doorsteps. Which I think you have said. But I'm afraid you can't then say that you have tested your 'leaflet/ yield' theory through canvassing. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 11, 2024 10:02:51 GMT
I don’t have the time sadly. Leafleting is far more efficient too. Plus autism doesn’t help on doorsteps. Which I think you have said. But I'm afraid you can't then say that you have tested your 'leaflet/ yield' theory through canvassing. These are more ad hoc chats. |
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 11, 2024 10:03:46 GMT
I don't think waspish or nasty comments will help.
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Post by sanders on Aug 11, 2024 10:16:15 GMT
31 pages, Jeremy? 31? That’s insane.
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Post by greatkingrat on Aug 11, 2024 10:19:49 GMT
Have you forgotten again? Nurse! He's wandering again! Delete that. Grandma died with dementia. At 88, you should know better. I'm fairly sure J.G.Harston is not 88. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 11, 2024 10:20:51 GMT
Delete that. Grandma died with dementia. At 88, you should know better. I'm fairly sure J.G.Harston is not 88. Born 1936? Or is that yellowperil? |
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Post by batman on Aug 11, 2024 11:18:10 GMT
I don't think waspish or nasty comments will help. I fear that nothing ultimately will. |
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Post by kevinf on Aug 11, 2024 11:19:44 GMT
I will be drafting the Preview for this ward later today and this thread will be taken into consideration. Don’t, Andrew. Please don’t…. |
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Post by batman on Aug 11, 2024 11:21:00 GMT
I think there's a strong case for freezing comments on this thread. We can of course make predictions in the relevant thread. Perhaps special dispensation could be made for Andrew's Previews. This thread is totally out of control and the blame is not entirely in one corner either. What say you admin?
Well done to norflondon for at least attempting to tackle the other by-elections properly, as well as Hillrise.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2024 11:26:08 GMT
I'm surprised there's been no comment about my prediction for a PC gain in Caerphilly. Regarding Islington, I stick with my prediction for a Lab hold & Parr Reid gets around 30 votes. A quick dip into the Islington Council election shows that four independents over the last 12 years have received approx 90 120 190 and 330 votes. And these have been in the main election where the turnout has been around 40%. In this by-election we are expecting a turnout of around just 15% I might be severely underestimating the anger at the main parties at yet another election here in this Ward, but unluckily for Parr Reid there is another independent standing here as far as I can see it's highly unusual to have one independent standing in Islington let alone two. We will see very soon I think Caerphilly is very difficult to predict from afar I have to say. Welsh local elections have a habit of doing strange things, especially at by-elections |
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