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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 10, 2024 12:20:30 GMT
What percentage of the ward has received a leaflet?
What percentage has received more than one leaflet?
What percentage has been canvassed?
Not quite sure how you think winning is realistic unless those figures are above 90, 50 and 20 frankly.
Presumably there's no polling day organisation in place to get out the (i.e. your) vote?
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Post by sanders on Aug 10, 2024 13:21:13 GMT
What percentage of the ward has received a leaflet? What percentage has received more than one leaflet? What percentage has been canvassed? Not quite sure how you think winning is realistic unless those figures are above 90, 50 and 20 frankly. Presumably there's no polling day organisation in place to get out the (i.e. your) vote? I am the organisation / the Senate. |
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Post by greyfriar on Aug 10, 2024 13:41:22 GMT
I for one commend sanders for presenting this constituency with a choice. Having been occasionally faced with uninspiring party candidates reliant on the rosette rather than individual merit or substance, the availability of a somewhat eccentric independent has provided an option to cast a vote for none of the above as an alternative to remaining on the couch, spoiling or worst of all, engaging in a pragmatic determination as to which of the parties may be least bad. In reality the wisdom of those who know better is undoubtedly correct, but it ought to be a formative experience to go round course and distance for the first time. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 10, 2024 14:00:14 GMT
What percentage of the ward has received a leaflet? What percentage has received more than one leaflet? What percentage has been canvassed? 1. 95% 2. 20% 3. 0.1% |
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Post by batman on Aug 10, 2024 15:23:12 GMT
What percentage of the ward has received a leaflet? What percentage has received more than one leaflet? What percentage has been canvassed? Not quite sure how you think winning is realistic unless those figures are above 90, 50 and 20 frankly. Presumably there's no polling day organisation in place to get out the (i.e. your) vote? Gwyn, with respect, while these questions are good they're missing an important element. We in the Labour Party have often leafletted 100% of Richmond-upon-Thames wards. The question is what is the quality & impact of the leaflets. When we have won, which we haven't done for a jolly long while, it was possible only because of the quality of our literature, not the percentage of the relevant ward we leafletted. The Lib Dems not only leaflet more than we do most of the time, but their leaflets hit home much more. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 10, 2024 16:08:36 GMT
The other independent’s leaflets feature watermelon. What does that mean? No fruit in mine, you know.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 10, 2024 17:05:19 GMT
What percentage of the ward has received a leaflet? What percentage has received more than one leaflet? What percentage has been canvassed? Not quite sure how you think winning is realistic unless those figures are above 90, 50 and 20 frankly. Presumably there's no polling day organisation in place to get out the (i.e. your) vote? Gwyn, with respect, while these questions are good they're missing an important element. We in the Labour Party have often leafletted 100% of Richmond-upon-Thames wards. The question is what is the quality & impact of the leaflets. When we have won, which we haven't done for a jolly long while, it was possible only because of the quality of our literature, not the percentage of the relevant ward we leafletted. The Lib Dems not only leaflet more than we do most of the time, but their leaflets hit home much more. Well, the percentages were based on the assumption that the leaflets would at least be basically competent. Which may have been an unwise assumption in this case. They were very much a minimum. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 10, 2024 17:06:39 GMT
The other independent’s leaflets feature watermelon. What does that mean? No fruit in mine, you know. Presumably that the Green candidate is a hidden socialist (though I can't see why that would be considered a problem in such an area). |
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Post by lackeroftalent on Aug 10, 2024 18:26:01 GMT
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Aug 10, 2024 18:29:58 GMT
Watermelons are weak with very little substance, so it’s apt left wing pro Palestinians have adopted it.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 10, 2024 19:12:06 GMT
In that case, would be more apt for people who vote Reform despite being Tory members and identifying themselves as "Conservatives", surely?
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Post by greatkingrat on Aug 10, 2024 21:17:20 GMT
I don't know if she'll win or not, but I'm sure Stoecker will do a lot better than that, particularly as she is the candidate endorsed by Corbyn.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 10, 2024 22:09:57 GMT
I thought those were results for a second.
Then I remembered it's not Thursday.
It's been a long week
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 10, 2024 22:27:43 GMT
I don't know if she'll win or not, but I'm sure Stoecker will do a lot better than that, particularly as she is the candidate endorsed by Corbyn. I would have thought that a Corbyn endorsement would carry a lot of weight so - with no knowledge of the ward in question - I would have thought a Lab/Stocker scrap, with Greens 3rd, Labour 4th and the unendorsed Indie 5th. |
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Post by norflondon on Aug 10, 2024 22:32:11 GMT
From what I've been informed, it's really between Labour and Green but Lab not expected to lose. I've given the Corbyn endorsed independent about 15% of the vote which I think is reasonable
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J.G.Harston
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Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on Aug 11, 2024 0:10:22 GMT
That's a new one. I thought it was politically green on the outside, but red on the inside. Socialists at heart masquerading as environmentalists. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 11, 2024 4:06:02 GMT
Locals predictions... HILLRISE, ISLINGTON, LONDON NANDA (Labour) 710 NETTLE (Green) 510 PARR-REID (Independent) 30 STOEKER (Independent) 240 WALL (Liberal Democrat) 180 LAB HOLD T/O 17% CAERPHILLY, Aberbargoed & Bargoed BC BISSEX-FOSTER (Labour) 550 McCARTHY (Plaid Cymru) 650 THOMAS (Green) 230 PC GAIN T/O 20% Hillrise turnout feels about right, XD. The rest is somewhat more questionable. Corbyn isn’t exactly endorsing Alison, really. They are pictured together for sure. But that’s more or less it. 30 votes from 2,500+ leaflets lol? The yield likely will exceed that. To batman, people appreciate handwritten literature. Why is that the case here? It suggests genuine effort from me. Contrast that with Mr Steadman’s antics. People read them because they’re homespun. 30 votes is a funny prediction. Why is it so funny then? Because it’s easy to exceed it. I’m confident it misses a 0. I’ve played the local card hugely. Plus Hillrise’s western end is prosperous. Which means higher turnouts I’d posit. Whitehall Park will not vote Alison. And sharpies are better than watermelons. May the best candidate win it. At least you’ve lowered your expectations. People thought I’d never win Standing. Eliminated first they all thought once. I have defied detractors once before. I will confound Vote UK critics. My benchmark is actually 255 votes. My Oxford Union Secretary result in MT18. 17.4% and 18.09% after STV transfers. It’s what Perot got in Pennsylvania. Mansfield’s Rickersey got 17.4% in 2005. He stood as Mansfield Independent Forum. It’s psychologically true running independently, IMHO. I’ve never needed a slate / party. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Aug 11, 2024 7:38:56 GMT
"The yield likely will exceed that"
The trading and stocks thread is in Off topic.
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Post by sanders on Aug 11, 2024 7:49:22 GMT
2,500+ leaflets won't equal 30 votes.
It'll be more like 250 minimum.
I stand by that forecast TBH.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2024 8:04:51 GMT
Numbers of leaflets alone do not pick up votes
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