|
Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 31, 2024 5:04:23 GMT
I'd love to know what lurkers think about this thread. You should be so lurky, Lurky, lurky, lurky You should be so lurky My love
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Jul 31, 2024 5:12:08 GMT
If any forum posters want to help out with the campaign, please message me privately. Together, we will make history in Hillrise and send a message to Keir Starmer and his underwhelming government.
|
|
|
Post by tonyhil on Jul 31, 2024 5:54:48 GMT
Calling a government that has been in office for less than a month 'underwhelming' is displaying a ludicrous level of partisanship.
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Jul 31, 2024 6:29:07 GMT
Calling a government that has been in office for less than a month 'underwhelming' is displaying a ludicrous level of partisanship. 400 seats, Tony Hill, 400 seats. Starmer is wicked. The two child benefit cap is an evil, morally bankrupt policy, TBQH. “The hardworking families of Hillrise deserve better” - MPR.
|
|
|
Post by Peter Wilkinson on Jul 31, 2024 7:24:27 GMT
Got it (in terms of the ultra-low vote in Greater Manchester). Ashton ward in Wigan, 15th December 2022. Turnout was 468 voters, which was 5.3 per cent. Labour took it with 294 votes from 8779 eligible voters. The turnout will be low because 1) it's the summer holidays 2) cynicism about Labour because of Corbyn winning as an independent and 3) scepticism about the whole point of this by-election because the Councillor was in there for all of five minutes before calling time; 4) to my knowledge, the campaign literature for Labour and the independent aren't emphasising postal votes to the extent mine is. Ergo, we have a recipe for a low turnout. - Yes
- This will probably have an appreciable effect on the Labour vote (and would have done even if Corbyn had lost) and on any Labour campaign for the by-election. But it is hard to see why cynicism about Labour would have adversely affected the Green or the Liberal Democrat vote, for instance. And, talking of Corbyn, who has he publicly endorsed for this by-election? Or hasn't he? Or has anyone else closely connected with his general election campaign done so?
- Again, this is something that would tend to act specifically against Labour
- What Labour campaign literature are you talking about? If I were organising the Labour campaign, I would certainly have sent out literature emphasising postal votes to confirmed supporters - but in a likely low-turnout by-election, I would equally certainly not want my campaign literature to be reminding opposition voters of an easier way to vote.
If I were asked to forecast this election, I would certainly predict that the Labour vote will be sharply down - but, with 60%+ of the vote in previous elections in Hillrise ward, it has a very long way to fall before anyone else is likely to win. And if it does, in the absence of any candidate endorsed by Corbyn, I would expect, on the basis of other council by-elections in Hillrise, the beneficiary almost certainly to be Nettle for the Greens - while their vote was down in the general election, that was fairly obviously because the real fight then was between Labour and Corbyn, something that doesn't seem to apply to this by-election.
|
|
|
Post by norflondon on Jul 31, 2024 7:38:49 GMT
As hinted at by sanders, voter fatigue maybe another reason for a low turnout The residents of Hillrise are now voting for the third time in three months in four separate elections (the previous by-election in May was combined with the London mayor election) and so they will shortly have three different councillors in that time.
|
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,447
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Jul 31, 2024 9:00:06 GMT
Calling a government that has been in office for less than a month 'underwhelming' is displaying a ludicrous level of partisanship. 400 seats, Tony Hill, 400 seats. Starmer is wicked. The two child benefit cap is an evil, morally bankrupt policy, TBQH. “The hardworking families of Hillrise deserve better” - MPR. What about the not-families of Hillrise? And the not-hard-working?
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Jul 31, 2024 9:13:01 GMT
The turnout will be low because 1) it's the summer holidays 2) cynicism about Labour because of Corbyn winning as an independent and 3) scepticism about the whole point of this by-election because the Councillor was in there for all of five minutes before calling time; 4) to my knowledge, the campaign literature for Labour and the independent aren't emphasising postal votes to the extent mine is. Ergo, we have a recipe for a low turnout. - Yes
- This will probably have an appreciable effect on the Labour vote (and would have done even if Corbyn had lost) and on any Labour campaign for the by-election. But it is hard to see why cynicism about Labour would have adversely affected the Green or the Liberal Democrat vote, for instance. And, talking of Corbyn, who has he publicly endorsed for this by-election? Or hasn't he? Or has anyone else closely connected with his general election campaign done so?
- Again, this is something that would tend to act specifically against Labour
- What Labour campaign literature are you talking about? If I were organising the Labour campaign, I would certainly have sent out literature emphasising postal votes to confirmed supporters - but in a likely low-turnout by-election, I would equally certainly not want my campaign literature to be reminding opposition voters of an easier way to vote.
If I were asked to forecast this election, I would certainly predict that the Labour vote will be sharply down - but, with 60%+ of the vote in previous elections in Hillrise ward, it has a very long way to fall before anyone else is likely to win. And if it does, in the absence of any candidate endorsed by Corbyn, I would expect, on the basis of other council by-elections in Hillrise, the beneficiary almost certainly to be Nettle for the Greens - while their vote was down in the general election, that was fairly obviously because the real fight then was between Labour and Corbyn, something that doesn't seem to apply to this by-election. Re 4, and thank you for your erudite summation of the facts as you see them, Peter: I've seen Labour posters about and they don't, and my eyesight is rubbish, emphasise postal voting from what I can gather - correct me if I'm wrong and you are much more keyed into London Labour than I ever have been, or ever could be at this point. "the real fight then was between Labour and Corbyn" - Corbyn is in pictures with the other independent and his wife, Laura, seems to be backing her. I can't compete with that endorsement (if indeed, an endorsement it is, I can't claim to speak for Corbyn's intentions re: Hillrie, but I could see why he would plump for Alison here. To the May result, and it's a good point - the Mayoral turnout helped Labour keep the seat, I'd wager. Compare that to off-cycle Hackney by-elections where Labour dropped by a lot more.
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 31, 2024 10:20:16 GMT
- Yes
- This will probably have an appreciable effect on the Labour vote (and would have done even if Corbyn had lost) and on any Labour campaign for the by-election. But it is hard to see why cynicism about Labour would have adversely affected the Green or the Liberal Democrat vote, for instance. And, talking of Corbyn, who has he publicly endorsed for this by-election? Or hasn't he? Or has anyone else closely connected with his general election campaign done so?
- Again, this is something that would tend to act specifically against Labour
- What Labour campaign literature are you talking about? If I were organising the Labour campaign, I would certainly have sent out literature emphasising postal votes to confirmed supporters - but in a likely low-turnout by-election, I would equally certainly not want my campaign literature to be reminding opposition voters of an easier way to vote.
If I were asked to forecast this election, I would certainly predict that the Labour vote will be sharply down - but, with 60%+ of the vote in previous elections in Hillrise ward, it has a very long way to fall before anyone else is likely to win. And if it does, in the absence of any candidate endorsed by Corbyn, I would expect, on the basis of other council by-elections in Hillrise, the beneficiary almost certainly to be Nettle for the Greens - while their vote was down in the general election, that was fairly obviously because the real fight then was between Labour and Corbyn, something that doesn't seem to apply to this by-election. Re 4, and thank you for your erudite summation of the facts as you see them, Peter: I've seen Labour posters about and they don't, and my eyesight is rubbish, emphasise postal voting from what I can gather - correct me if I'm wrong and you are much more keyed into London Labour than I ever have been, or ever could be at this point. "the real fight then was between Labour and Corbyn" - Corbyn is in pictures with the other independent and his wife, Laura, seems to be backing her. I can't compete with that endorsement (if indeed, an endorsement it is, I can't claim to speak for Corbyn's intentions re: Hillrie, but I could see why he would plump for Alison here. To the May result, and it's a good point - the Mayoral turnout helped Labour keep the seat, I'd wager. Compare that to off-cycle Hackney by-elections where Labour dropped by a lot more. Why would posters "emphasise postal voting"?
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Jul 31, 2024 10:53:02 GMT
Re 4, and thank you for your erudite summation of the facts as you see them, Peter: I've seen Labour posters about and they don't, and my eyesight is rubbish, emphasise postal voting from what I can gather - correct me if I'm wrong and you are much more keyed into London Labour than I ever have been, or ever could be at this point. "the real fight then was between Labour and Corbyn" - Corbyn is in pictures with the other independent and his wife, Laura, seems to be backing her. I can't compete with that endorsement (if indeed, an endorsement it is, I can't claim to speak for Corbyn's intentions re: Hillrie, but I could see why he would plump for Alison here. To the May result, and it's a good point - the Mayoral turnout helped Labour keep the seat, I'd wager. Compare that to off-cycle Hackney by-elections where Labour dropped by a lot more. Why would posters "emphasise postal voting"? To persuade people to do it.
|
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,589
|
Post by john07 on Jul 31, 2024 11:00:20 GMT
Calling a government that has been in office for less than a month 'underwhelming' is displaying a ludicrous level of partisanship. Partisanship is not the term I would use!
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Jul 31, 2024 11:30:32 GMT
One is allowed to criticise gov't, especially when one has lived experience of child benefit and skin in the game since many of one's clients do draw on the benefit.
|
|
|
Post by greatkingrat on Jul 31, 2024 11:59:59 GMT
Corbyn does appear to be actively campaigning for Stoecker
|
|
Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,738
Member is Online
|
Post by Crimson King on Jul 31, 2024 12:01:14 GMT
printed leaflets? No chance
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Jul 31, 2024 12:04:56 GMT
Gross, printed leaflets. Voters sceptical. Mine are largely hand torn apart, folding the paper repeatedly - tearing along the groove. Life begins at paper perforation yes. I've got a rotary phone for GOTV. We had a good street canvassing session on Hazelville Road today and people like the policies quite a lot. I think I'm going to do OK here, lads.
|
|
|
Post by norflondon on Jul 31, 2024 12:45:32 GMT
Deleted
|
|
|
Post by cathyc on Jul 31, 2024 12:49:45 GMT
Can't help you deliver leaflets but happy help you out by donating a pair of good cutting scissors which is something, by the sound of it, you need. That's a bit of a blow for you- Jeremy Corbyn getting behind the Green candidate I think she must stand a good chance of upsetting the odds You shouldn't run with scissors.
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Jul 31, 2024 14:00:57 GMT
Can't help you deliver leaflets but happy help you out by donating a pair of good cutting scissors which is something, by the sound of it, you need. That's a bit of a blow for you- Jeremy Corbyn getting behind another Ind candidate. I don't need scissors. Corbyn isn't endorsing the Greens, you fool. Do you read what you post, no offence? Still, I'm all for folks ignoring the other (joke) independent.
|
|
|
Post by stb12 on Jul 31, 2024 14:12:43 GMT
Can't help you deliver leaflets but happy help you out by donating a pair of good cutting scissors which is something, by the sound of it, you need. That's a bit of a blow for you- Jeremy Corbyn getting behind another Ind candidate. I don't need scissors. Corbyn isn't endorsing the Greens, you fool. Do you read what you post, no offence? Still, I'm all for folks ignoring the other (joke) independent. Give the ultra sensitivity to every comment a rest, please
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Jul 31, 2024 14:16:36 GMT
I don't need scissors. Corbyn isn't endorsing the Greens, you fool. Do you read what you post, no offence? Still, I'm all for folks ignoring the other (joke) independent. Give the ultra sensitivity to every comment a rest, please Sorry to snap at 'Norf' norflondon - I ran out of e-cigarettes and alcohol. No offence meant and he is one of the more constructive denizens of Vote UK - MPR.
|
|