sanders
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Post by sanders on Jul 30, 2024 11:56:20 GMT
Just for fun, here's my prediction: Hillrise Me 353 (22.4%) Thanda 331 (21%) Nettle 317 (20.2%) Wall 290 (18.4%) Stoecker 284 (18%) Independent gain from Labour You're predicting a voter turnout of only 15% ?? Yes. The other independent doesn’t seem to mention postal voting in her leaflet at all (I do), and it’s high summer.
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Post by cathyc on Jul 30, 2024 13:02:09 GMT
Just for fun, here's my prediction: Hillrise Me 353 (22.4%) Thanda 331 (21%) Nettle 317 (20.2%) Wall 290 (18.4%) Stoecker 284 (18%) Independent gain from Labour You're predicting a voter turnout of only 15% ?? Does anyone know of the top of their head if winning a seat on a principal authority with just over 3% of the electorate would be unprecedented. If not the top of the head then it's clear that other body parts are available for predictive purposes.
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 30, 2024 13:29:45 GMT
You're predicting a voter turnout of only 15% ?? Does anyone know of the top of their head if winning a seat on a principal authority with just over 3% of the electorate would be unprecedented. If not the top of the head then it's clear that other body parts are available for predictive purposes. Given the turnout in some local by elections over the years (and even in all up/thirds elections) I think it would not be unprecedented.
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Post by norflondon on Jul 30, 2024 13:43:44 GMT
I doubt it. 3% probably a record because to win with <23% of the vote is very very rare (almost unprecedented) and remember most council seats have just 2 or 3 or 4 candidates. So the chances of someone winning with less than quarter of the popular vote is impossible in those circumstances. And a 15% turnout is also rare even in council by elections where they're mostly 20-25%
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Post by lackeroftalent on Jul 30, 2024 13:45:01 GMT
You're predicting a voter turnout of only 15% ?? Does anyone know of the top of their head if winning a seat on a principal authority with just over 3% of the electorate would be unprecedented. If not the top of the head then it's clear that other body parts are available for predictive purposes. Not even close. This from 4th July this year (and doubt this is the lowest ever). Lancaster, University ward Grn 96 (45%) Lab 83 (39%) Con 23 (11%) LDm 11 (5%) Electorate 3622 Turnout 6% committeeadmin.lancaster.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=403&RPID=36516941
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john07
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Post by john07 on Jul 30, 2024 14:06:19 GMT
Does anyone know of the top of their head if winning a seat on a principal authority with just over 3% of the electorate would be unprecedented. If not the top of the head then it's clear that other body parts are available for predictive purposes. Not even close. This from 4th July this year (and doubt this is the lowest ever). Lancaster, University ward Grn 96 (45%) Lab 83 (39%) Con 23 (11%) LDm 11 (5%) Electorate 3622 Turnout 6% committeeadmin.lancaster.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=403&RPID=36516941The name: University Ward and the date: 4th July tell you all you need to know about why the turnout was so low.
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r34t
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Post by r34t on Jul 30, 2024 16:50:20 GMT
I doubt it. 3% probably a record because to win with <23% of the vote is very very rare (almost unprecedented) and remember most council seats have just 2 or 3 or 4 candidates. So the chances of someone winning with less than quarter of the popular vote is impossible in those circumstances. And a 15% turnout is also rare even in council by elections where they're mostly 20-25% It’s assuming 2 rarities. Firstly such a low turnout is unusual even in the summer. Then, what is highly unlikely is to have 5 candidates who are all competitive & all in excess of 15%, highly unlikely & I’d suggest not going to happen.
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iang
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Post by iang on Jul 30, 2024 17:00:52 GMT
I seem to recall a Salford by-election relatively recently with a particularly low turn out, which might fit the bill
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 30, 2024 17:55:36 GMT
I seem to recall a Salford by-election relatively recently with a particularly low turn out, which might fit the bill A quick check suggests some very low turnouts in Salford by-elections, but 10 per cent seems to the lowest. Somewhere like Tameside might be fruitful territory.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 30, 2024 18:00:09 GMT
Got it (in terms of the ultra-low vote in Greater Manchester). Ashton ward in Wigan, 15th December 2022. Turnout was 468 voters, which was 5.3 per cent.
Labour took it with 294 votes from 8779 eligible voters.
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Jul 30, 2024 18:12:47 GMT
Got it (in terms of the ultra-low vote in Greater Manchester). Ashton ward in Wigan, 15th December 2022. Turnout was 468 voters, which was 5.3 per cent. Labour took it with 294 votes from 8779 eligible voters. The turnout will be low because 1) it's the summer holidays 2) cynicism about Labour because of Corbyn winning as an independent and 3) scepticism about the whole point of this by-election because the Councillor was in there for all of five minutes before calling time; 4) to my knowledge, the campaign literature for Labour and the independent aren't emphasising postal votes to the extent mine is. Ergo, we have a recipe for a low turnout.
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Post by cathyc on Jul 30, 2024 18:31:21 GMT
Got it (in terms of the ultra-low vote in Greater Manchester). Ashton ward in Wigan, 15th December 2022. Turnout was 468 voters, which was 5.3 per cent. Labour took it with 294 votes from 8779 eligible voters. I think even that is very slightly higher than the projection for the Hillrise result. The Lancaster one is lower but I know that ward quite well and it really is an almost entirely campus electorate.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 30, 2024 21:00:20 GMT
Default election literature doesn't emphasise postal votes, because most posters don't have them and those who do get targeted with dedicated communications - usually addressed mail.
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Jul 30, 2024 21:13:51 GMT
The idea is leaflet everyone first before the postal vote deadline and then start street canvassing (did a bit of that yesterday). You don't have to follow this thread FYI. Actually the idea is to start canvassing as soon as possible, preferably two or three years before the election so that you have some decent data on which to fight an election. In two weeks you might make, what, 200 contacts? And you might get maybe 25 of those promising to vote for you? You can't build a GOTV operation on 25 voters
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 30, 2024 21:44:15 GMT
I'd love to know what lurkers think about this thread.
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Post by iainbhx on Jul 30, 2024 21:51:08 GMT
And is also local to Bargoed, as is the former Plaid candidate who is now the Labour candidate. The Green candidate lives in the Caerphilly constituency which means he isn't from Bargoed because that is in the Molar-shaped Blaenau Gwent & Rhymney.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jul 30, 2024 21:55:47 GMT
If anybody is interested in the Caerphilly or Stirling by-elections, please let yourself heard. Considering all the resignations, I'm not sure the councillors for Dunblade themselves are interested.
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Jul 30, 2024 22:41:31 GMT
Default election literature doesn't emphasise postal votes, because most posters don't have them and those who do get targeted with dedicated communications - usually addressed mail. But the deadline for a PV in Hillrise is 31st July.
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jul 30, 2024 23:17:07 GMT
Default election literature doesn't emphasise postal votes, because most posters don't have them and those who do get targeted with dedicated communications - usually addressed mail. But the deadline for a PV in Hillrise is 31st July. Do you mean the deadline for new applications, or do you mean the date when the council is expecting to post them out?
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sanders
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Post by sanders on Jul 30, 2024 23:18:16 GMT
But the deadline for a PV in Hillrise is 31st July. Do you mean the deadline for new applications, or do you mean the date when the council is expecting to post them out? Applying for postal votes, I think. I could win on PVs. We bring up the deadline often because it’s summer holidays.
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