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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 28, 2024 12:17:37 GMT
I'm not convinced unloved gardens and driveways are by definition signs of Labour support In my experience the most unkempt property in any street normally housed a right-wing elector. Conservative, but BNP where available.
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Post by norflondon on Jul 28, 2024 12:39:22 GMT
The most unkempt one yes possibly.
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 28, 2024 12:49:11 GMT
Non voters surely
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Post by sanders on Jul 28, 2024 17:34:36 GMT
The first non voter I met on the doorstep was a Greek Cypriot lady on Sunnyside Road who isn’t voting because “I like Nigel” and Reform aren’t standing here. I pointed out that i’d quite possibly be the only Brexiteer on Islington council if I won and we talked of how retiring to Cyprus is better than staying in the uk in all likelihood. We also talked about our reasons for voting Leave. I think she’s going to register to vote now at least. It was good to talk to her.
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European Lefty
Top Poster
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
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Post by European Lefty on Jul 28, 2024 17:52:40 GMT
Yes, but why does that mean their inhabitants are more likely to vote Labour? That was what was being claimed. I believe the last few elections have had post-election polling suggesting that renters (private or social) are very likely to vote Labour (both were well over 60% Labour in 2017, for example). Whether it necessarily follows that an "unloved garden" means a house is rented or that its owners fall into the x% of renters who vote Labour is obviously another matter
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Post by batman on Jul 28, 2024 17:58:06 GMT
much of Labour's strength in some London seats is based on the party's strong lead amongst private renters. It's the influx of Labour-voting private renters which has led to some of the sharpest improvements in certain wards, e.g. Clock House in Bromley. European Lefty's second para is obviously correct
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Post by sanders on Jul 29, 2024 4:26:50 GMT
much of Labour's strength in some London seats is based on the party's strong lead amongst private renters. It's the influx of Labour-voting private renters which has led to some of the sharpest improvements in certain wards, e.g. Clock House in Bromley. European Lefty's second para is obviously correct Good point. If memory serves you've had a lot of family homes broken up into rented flats in Lewisham and areas that border it in Bromley LB as you say. For example, on current demographics, I think Labour would've won Beckenham in 1997. I know a certain UK Polling Report poster used to live in the seat until about 10 years ago and was part of the changing demography, selling his flat to an Indian couple, if memory serves. But that sort of change in owner-occupier profile won't have hurt the Tories in 2024. You can see in parts of Hillrise where the Tory vote would've come from in the past - large family homes on Hornsey Lane as you approach the Archway Birdge (many now with half a dozen or so flats inside) and even in Whitehall Park, there are not that many undivided family homes - it's about a 50-50 split between family homes and houses broken up into at least two flats (usually the cellar is a separate flat). However, it's clearly a wealthy area overall (Whitehall Park) and probably gave the Lib Dems a solid vote share in years gone by, and I would wager helped the Tories win their last Hillrise Councillor in 1978. Rest assured, I have leafletted virtually everything in Whitehall Park and it's the only part of the ward where a shop currently sports a poster. I'm obviously talking up the Hornsey Lane connection I have for all that it's worth. FYI, I believe the Labour candidate is based in Barnsbury N1 while the other independent is in N4. If I win this, which I do not expect to at the moment because we haven't got enough engagement, it'll be because of a bloc vote from Whitehall Park and Hornsey Lane.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 29, 2024 4:31:59 GMT
we will need to up our game if we do door-to-door canvassing. How many people do you have working on your campaign? One. An accountant named Walter.
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Post by sanders on Jul 29, 2024 5:07:47 GMT
How many people do you have working on your campaign? One. An accountant named Walter. That is patently false. Please remove.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 29, 2024 9:53:37 GMT
So they aren't called Walter and aren't an accountant then
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Post by batman on Jul 29, 2024 10:04:53 GMT
One. An accountant named Walter. That is patently false. Please remove. you are in danger of becoming a stuffed shirt. You fight a campaign like yours, you will attract satirical comments. It wasn’t abusive or offensive, so suck it up.
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r34t
Non-Aligned
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Post by r34t on Jul 29, 2024 10:19:30 GMT
So they aren't called Walter and aren't an accountant then They may be called Walter, just not an accountant. Or vice-versa of course. But they definitely aren't a printer
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Sandy
Forum Regular
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Post by Sandy on Jul 29, 2024 11:16:20 GMT
So they aren't called Walter and aren't an accountant then They may be called Walter, just not an accountant. Or vice-versa of course. But they definitely aren't a printer My printer is called Legion because I’m sure it’s possessed.
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 29, 2024 11:20:22 GMT
They may be called Walter, just not an accountant. Or vice-versa of course. But they definitely aren't a printer My printer is called Legion because I’m sure it’s possessed. "My name is legion for i require many cartridges".
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Post by sanders on Jul 29, 2024 12:03:35 GMT
1200 leaflets delivered. Everything in Hillrise east of Crouch Hill now covered. Plus everything down to St John's Way is also covered. Let's do this. We had a successful street canvassing session on Ashmount Road persuading a non-voter to register for a postal vote cast a ballot for us. So far, so good. The hand-written gubbins appreciated (emblematic of the hard work I would do if our campaign succeeds). I stand by the decision implacably. The other independent's leaflet is vapid bumf.
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Post by tonyhil on Jul 29, 2024 12:33:15 GMT
I think that this is going to be the most keenly anticipated local by-election result this year (on this Forum at least), so fair play to weld/sanders for that.
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Post by sanders on Jul 29, 2024 12:34:26 GMT
People are welcome to do more than anticipate if they want to help with canvassing or GOTV. I would be quite possibly the only Leave voting Councillor in Islington.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 29, 2024 12:43:28 GMT
Any news on what your opponents are doing?
I would expect Labour to end up with three (or more) leaflet/DM drops plus canvassing by eve of poll, plus what you won't see is the emails to already known supporters/likely supporters.
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Post by sanders on Jul 29, 2024 12:55:44 GMT
Any news on what your opponents are doing? I would expect Labour to end up with three (or more) leaflet/DM drops plus canvassing by eve of poll, plus what you won't see is the emails to already known supporters/likely supporters. What Labour supporters? Corbyn won Islington. On a serious note, they're cooked. Corbyn trouncing them in the GE. The ex-councillor throwing in the towel etc. To your question, Quimby, a lot. The other independent's thin gruel has been put about the seat and she leafletted Whitehall Park after me. The woman is based in N4 so probably does better in the southern part of the ward bordering Finsbury Park than I do, and potentially Crouch Hill, but we are committed to leafletting everywhere. To the point about multiple leaflet drops, you don't need multiple leaflets if you prioritise quality over quantity. We're doing one leaflet that should cut through and not multiple seemingly copy and paste printer jobs. Our leaflets have been painstakingly thought about and voters appreciate the alacrity with which we conduct our campaign. Glossy leaflets aren't popular since I find that woman's leaflets on the floor. I've not seen any other party leaflets and nor have I seen any of my leaflets discarded so far. Generic leaflets (the other independents are, IMO) get the generic binning. I vowed not to make glossy leaflets when the 2015 Labour candidate in MK North had an apparent typo in a leaflet.
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Post by batman on Jul 29, 2024 13:02:24 GMT
I think you will find that Labour has quite a lot of supporters in the London Borough of Islington.
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