|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 26, 2024 5:48:16 GMT
Surprised how few wards you've got Labour carrying in SW Norfolk. Presumably you're modelling a fairly chunky margin in Thetford? Yes Labour by about two to one in Thetford (40/20/20) and they also carried Downham Market. They were very close in some of the rural wards and with some ridiculous three or four way splits (the rural Breckland wards overall I have Con/Lab/Ref/Ind as 28/25/22/14 but Labour ahead in none of them). It's entirely possible that with a very small shift in votes Labour carried eg Guiltcross, Swaffham, Nar Valley, Tilney, Mershe Lande and Wiggenhall |
|
sanders
Green
Posts: 2,989 
Member is Online
|
Post by sanders on Jul 26, 2024 5:58:32 GMT
Surprised how few wards you've got Labour carrying in SW Norfolk. Presumably you're modelling a fairly chunky margin in Thetford? Yes Labour by about two to one in Thetford (40/20/20) and they also carried Downham Market. They were very close in some of the rural wards and with some ridiculous three or four way splits (the rural Breckland wards overall I have Con/Lab/Ref/Ind as 28/25/22/14 but Labour ahead in none of them). It's entirely possible that with a very small shift in votes Labour carried eg Guiltcross, Swaffham, Nar Valley, Tilney, Mershe Lande and Wiggenhall I guess Downham Market is downmarket? |
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Jul 26, 2024 12:07:18 GMT
Labour 24 - base, majority and landslide seats:-
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 26, 2024 16:42:09 GMT
| | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Babergh | 33.0% | 26.7% | 13.2% | 19.0% | 8.2% | | | | | West Suffolk | 33.5% | 30.4% | 7.7% | 18.8% | 7.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | | | Mid Suffolk | 29.9% | 19.2% | 6.8% | 17.1% | 25.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | | | Ipswich | 27.0% | 41.6% | 5.6% | 16.9% | 8.1% | 0.2% | 0.7% | | | East Suffolk | 30.4% | 29.0% | 9.3% | 19.5% | 11.6% | 0.2% | | |
Suffolk |
30.8% |
29.4% |
8.5% |
18.5% |
11.8% |
0.6% |
0.3% | |
| | | | | | | | | | South Norfolk | 29.7% | 28.4% | 9.5% | 15.5% | 16.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | | | Breckland | 32.4% | 30.3% | 6.0% | 21.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 0.7% | | | Kings Lynn & West Norfolk | 32.3% | 24.2% | 11.9% | 20.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 0.8% | | | North Norfolk | 35.7% | 9.4% | 36.9% | 14.7% | 3.3% |
| | | | Broadland | 30.0% | 35.7% | 9.0% | 17.8% | 7.2% | 0.3% | | | | Norwich | 12.7% | 49.9% | 6.2% | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | | | Great Yarmouth | 24.6% | 31.8% | 2.7% | 35.3% | 4.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Norfolk | 28.5% | 30.0% | 11.7% | 18.9% | 8.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | |
It's interesting, all things considered, how 'normal' this looks for the most part in terms of which party carried each district. Also a good illustration of how efficient Labour's vote has been this time. In 1997 Labour won a plurality in Suffolk but only won 2 of 7 seats. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 26, 2024 16:54:41 GMT
|
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
|
Post by Foggy on Jul 26, 2024 19:10:47 GMT
Not difficult to spot the two areas where the "progressive anti-Tory" vote coalesced with someone other than Labour here. |
|
|
|
Post by ntyuk1707 on Jul 27, 2024 21:36:36 GMT
Treating 2024 election as a 'de facto referendum' on Scottish independence NO 65.5% YES 34.5%  |
|
Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,729
|
Post by Chris from Brum on Jul 28, 2024 13:33:19 GMT
Treating 2024 election as a 'de facto referendum' on Scottish independence NO 65.5% YES 34.5% That looks overwhelming, but how are you treating the Scottish Green vote? |
|
|
|
Post by Peter Wilkinson on Jul 28, 2024 14:42:36 GMT
That looks overwhelming, but how are you treating the Scottish Green vote? I will leave it to the author of the original post to give a definitive answer, but having checked what I believe to be the three least negative constituencies shown (Glasgow North, Glasgow South and Glasgow South West), I think I can confirm that their colouring is consistent with the SNP, the Scottish Greens and Alba being treated as counting towards "YES" and the other parties standing in those constituencies as counting towards "NO" - on that basis, the largest "YES" percentage would apparently be slightly over 46% in Glasgow South. |
|
|
|
Post by michaelarden on Jul 28, 2024 16:15:29 GMT
Treating 2024 election as a 'de facto referendum' on Scottish independence NO 65.5% YES 34.5% Given about a third of the Labour vote is in favour of independence this is nonsensical. |
|
|
|
Post by ntyuk1707 on Jul 28, 2024 16:34:17 GMT
That looks overwhelming, but how are you treating the Scottish Green vote? I will leave it to the author of the original post to give a definitive answer, but having checked what I believe to be the three least negative constituencies shown (Glasgow North, Glasgow South and Glasgow South West), I think I can confirm that their colouring is consistent with the SNP, the Scottish Greens and Alba being treated as counting towards "YES" and the other parties standing in those constituencies as counting towards "NO" - on that basis, the largest "YES" percentage would apparently be slightly over 46% in Glasgow South. Correct |
|
|
|
Post by ntyuk1707 on Jul 28, 2024 16:34:46 GMT
Treating 2024 election as a 'de facto referendum' on Scottish independence NO 65.5% YES 34.5% Given about a third of the Labour vote is in favour of independence this is nonsensical. except when it is the reverse, eh? It's quite clear some anti-independence supporters voted SNP to stop the Conservatives in parts of central and southern Scotland ... |
|
|
|
Post by nobodyimportant on Jul 28, 2024 17:33:53 GMT
Or they support the SNP's policies outside of independence and don't see independence as the be-all and end-all of deciding their vote. That's probably more common with the Scottish Greens than the SNP, though.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 29, 2024 9:30:54 GMT
 | | Lab | Con | Ref | Ind | Grn | LD | WP | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | Coventry | 47.9% | 20.5% | 16.7% | 0.8% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | | Solihull | 26.5% | 35.4% | 18.5% | 0.6% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | | Birmingham | 37.6% | 17.2% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 0.2% | | Walsall | 33.7% | 27.4% | 22.8% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | | Wolverhampton | 46.3% | 23.9% | 17.7% | 2.6% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.0% | | Sandwell | 44.5% | 19.3% | 19.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 0.3% | | Dudley | 36.0% | 30.8% | 23.1% | 1.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| | | | | | | | | | West Midlands | 38.6% | 22.9% | 17.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
|
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Jul 29, 2024 15:26:13 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 29, 2024 15:43:03 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Jul 29, 2024 15:44:52 GMT
JK turns out some excellent work. It is a surprise to see Reform underperformed UKIP15 in some Leave type seats but concentrate their vote in select areas. Potential to embed or flash-in-a-pan?
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 29, 2024 15:45:23 GMT
|
|
sanders
Green
Posts: 2,989
Member is Online
|
Post by sanders on Jul 29, 2024 15:54:39 GMT
   Last map is obviously combined Workers Party and any Gaza inspired Independents You can see Khan's win Mashallah. |
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Jul 29, 2024 16:20:24 GMT
JK turns out some excellent work. It is a surprise to see Reform underperformed UKIP15 in some Leave type seats but concentrate their vote in select areas. Potential to embed or flash-in-a-pan? In my modelling there was an almost perfect correlation between Reform vote and English national identity (in English). That single variable on its own explained the vast majority of variance in the Reform vote. This isn't too surprising given that those who identify as English rather than British are overwhelmingly white, generally older than average, and usually live in less affluent areas, but I was surprised at just how close the correlation was. Notably English identity and UKIP 2015 vote saw a rather weaker (though still significant) relationship. |
|
