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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 20, 2024 9:15:44 GMT
 | | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Harlow | 29.7% | 40.7% | 2.6% | 21.6% | 5.1% | | 0.4% | | | Epping Forest | 43.1% | 27.2% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 1.1% | | | Brentwood | 34.9% | 24.1% | 13.4% | 23.4% | 3.9% |
| 0.4% | | | Basildon | 30.8% | 29.4% | 4.8% | 28.3% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | | | Thurrock | 23.1% | 38.0% | 2.8% | 27.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% | | | Castle Point | 38.2% | 23.1% | 3.3% | 30.2% | 5.2% |
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| | | Southend on Sea | 30.5% | 37.5% | 6.1% | 17.6% | 6.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | | | Rochford | 34.7% | 26.8% | 9.5% | 22.7% | 6.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | | | Maldon | 36.5% | 22.8% | 11.3% | 23.9% | 4.9% | 0.6% |
| | | Chelmsford | 34.8% | 16.1% | 27.6% | 16.8% | 3.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | | | Uttlesford | 35.3% | 30.3% | 10.8% | 15.1% | 5.7% | 2.8% |
| | | Braintree | 35.1% | 29.0% | 5.4% | 21.7% | 6.9% | 1.9% |
| | | Colchester | 30.8% | 35.1% | 11.3% | 16.9% | 5.4% | 0.5% |
| | | Tendring | 28.8% | 22.2% | 5.4% | 38.1% | 4.8% |
| 0.7% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Essex | 32.9% | 28.7% | 9.5% | 21.9% | 5.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | |
This is really interesting. I might quibble a ward or two, but overall it looks highly credible. Are you able to calculate what the overall figure would be for the Basildon wards south of the A127? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 20, 2024 9:35:25 GMT
It's notable that the Conservative vote has held up much better in the likes of Hertsmere and Broxbourne than in places like East Hertfordshire and North Hertfordshire which were traditionally just as safe if not safer. East Hertfordshire is shocking. I'd concluded well before polling day that Labour were going to win Hertford & Stortford and there had been bad signs from the local elections, but I was still surprised by how easily they won it and even then didn't think they would win a plurality of votes in East Hertfordshire. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 20, 2024 9:44:23 GMT
| | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Harlow | 29.7% | 40.7% | 2.6% | 21.6% | 5.1% | | 0.4% | | | Epping Forest | 43.1% | 27.2% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 1.1% | | | Brentwood | 34.9% | 24.1% | 13.4% | 23.4% | 3.9% |
| 0.4% | | | Basildon | 30.8% | 29.4% | 4.8% | 28.3% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | | | Thurrock | 23.1% | 38.0% | 2.8% | 27.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% | | | Castle Point | 38.2% | 23.1% | 3.3% | 30.2% | 5.2% |
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| | | Southend on Sea | 30.5% | 37.5% | 6.1% | 17.6% | 6.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | | | Rochford | 34.7% | 26.8% | 9.5% | 22.7% | 6.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | | | Maldon | 36.5% | 22.8% | 11.3% | 23.9% | 4.9% | 0.6% |
| | | Chelmsford | 34.8% | 16.1% | 27.6% | 16.8% | 3.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | | | Uttlesford | 35.3% | 30.3% | 10.8% | 15.1% | 5.7% | 2.8% |
| | | Braintree | 35.1% | 29.0% | 5.4% | 21.7% | 6.9% | 1.9% |
| | | Colchester | 30.8% | 35.1% | 11.3% | 16.9% | 5.4% | 0.5% |
| | | Tendring | 28.8% | 22.2% | 5.4% | 38.1% | 4.8% |
| 0.7% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Essex | 32.9% | 28.7% | 9.5% | 21.9% | 5.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | |
This is really interesting. I might quibble a ward or two, but overall it looks highly credible. Are you able to calculate what the overall figure would be for the Basildon wards south of the A127? Lab 13618 35.1% Ref 11420 29.5% Con 9287 24.0% Grn 1718 4.4% LD 1252 3.2% Ind 949 2.4% Oth 525 1.4% If you exclude Laindon Park (ie recreate the 1983-97 version of Basildon) Lab 12003 35.6% Ref 9804 29.1% Con 7918 23.5% Grn 1494 4.4% LD 1104 3.3% Ind 949 2.8% Oth 406 1.2% |
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Post by michaelarden on Jul 20, 2024 12:09:09 GMT
| | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Harlow | 29.7% | 40.7% | 2.6% | 21.6% | 5.1% | | 0.4% | | | Epping Forest | 43.1% | 27.2% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 1.1% | | | Brentwood | 34.9% | 24.1% | 13.4% | 23.4% | 3.9% |
| 0.4% | | | Basildon | 30.8% | 29.4% | 4.8% | 28.3% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | | | Thurrock | 23.1% | 38.0% | 2.8% | 27.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% | | | Castle Point | 38.2% | 23.1% | 3.3% | 30.2% | 5.2% |
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| | | Southend on Sea | 30.5% | 37.5% | 6.1% | 17.6% | 6.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | | | Rochford | 34.7% | 26.8% | 9.5% | 22.7% | 6.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | | | Maldon | 36.5% | 22.8% | 11.3% | 23.9% | 4.9% | 0.6% |
| | | Chelmsford | 34.8% | 16.1% | 27.6% | 16.8% | 3.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | | | Uttlesford | 35.3% | 30.3% | 10.8% | 15.1% | 5.7% | 2.8% |
| | | Braintree | 35.1% | 29.0% | 5.4% | 21.7% | 6.9% | 1.9% |
| | | Colchester | 30.8% | 35.1% | 11.3% | 16.9% | 5.4% | 0.5% |
| | | Tendring | 28.8% | 22.2% | 5.4% | 38.1% | 4.8% |
| 0.7% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Essex | 32.9% | 28.7% | 9.5% | 21.9% | 5.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | |
The Lib Dems coming 4th in Colchester and 5th in Southend is quite something. Both showing how they've collapsed in many of their traditional strong areas and how efficiently their vote was distributed this time. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 21, 2024 19:43:16 GMT
 | | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | Ind | WP | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | Cambridge | 13.5% | 43.3% | 23.8% | 1.0% | 14.3% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | | South Cambridgeshire | 27.1% | 10.5% | 45.7% | 9.1% | 5.2% | 2.0% | | 0.3% | | East Cambridgeshire | 33.6% | 16.9% | 30.9% | 13.1% | 4.2% | 0.4% | | 0.8% | | Fenland | 41.5% | 20.4% | 6.9% | 23.1% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.5% | | | Peterborough | 32.0% | 33.2% | 5.4% | 15.3% | 6.5% | 0.3% | 6.9% | 0.3% | | Huntingdonshire | 34.1% | 27.6% | 13.6% | 15.9% | 5.4% | 3.1% | | 0.1% |
| | | | | | | | | | Cambridgeshire | 30.1% | 25.0% | 22.0% | 12.7% | 6.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
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Post by horokeio on Jul 21, 2024 19:45:34 GMT
I hope you know how much board lurkers appreciate this work.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,251 
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Post by iain on Jul 21, 2024 19:50:58 GMT
What did you have as the result in Cherry Hinton?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 21, 2024 20:00:44 GMT
What did you have as the result in Cherry Hinton? roughly Labour 37% LD 30% Con 22% I'm not very confident about it. I had expected actually it would have gone Lib Dem from tactical voting (and maybe it did) but Labour's vote wasn't completely squeezed out and they wouldn't have got many votes in any of the other wards (a little in Fulbourn etc). It's incredibly difficult to calculate because it comes in from another constituency where the dynamics were totally different and local elections are a limited guide because of the different dynamics there too. Very difficult to call. Do you have any intelligence from the count? |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,251
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Post by iain on Jul 21, 2024 20:02:16 GMT
Sadly not!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 21, 2024 20:25:03 GMT
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 22, 2024 9:28:39 GMT
What did you have as the result in Cherry Hinton? roughly Labour 37% LD 30% Con 22% I'm not very confident about it. I had expected actually it would have gone Lib Dem from tactical voting (and maybe it did) but Labour's vote wasn't completely squeezed out and they wouldn't have got many votes in any of the other wards (a little in Fulbourn etc). It's incredibly difficult to calculate because it comes in from another constituency where the dynamics were totally different and local elections are a limited guide because of the different dynamics there too. Very difficult to call. Do you have any intelligence from the count? It's from a very long time ago, but I recall that in the 2010 general election the Lib Dems were third in Cherry Hinton, but within a couple of hundred votes of first (which I think was Labour, narrowly ahead of the Tories but it may have been the other way round.) And I don't think that was based off a huge amount of legwork, so the LDs certainly have more potential there than local elections show. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 22, 2024 9:34:50 GMT
It's clear now (without needing to wait for Norfolk and Suffolk) that there are wards in the Eastern region which have been won by Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Reform, Green, Workers Party and (Gaza) Independents. The West Midlands may also achieve this feat, dependent on whether Reform manage to carry any wards there (I think they probably did)
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 22, 2024 9:39:32 GMT
In Peterborough, some of those wards may have been won by almost every party on the list at some point in the past 15 years.
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 598
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Post by Ports on Jul 22, 2024 10:29:39 GMT
South East England probably has all in the above list minus the Workers Party - my guess is there will be an independent-won ward in Slough, and then it only takes one ward in Kent to go Reform - I'd say a Sheppey ward is most likely.
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Post by bjornhattan on Jul 22, 2024 11:19:38 GMT
The North West will probably be missing the Greens (though I'd not be too surprised if they narrowly won a student ward in Manchester or one of the very small new wards in Liverpool) - but other than that all of the other parties should be present. Four of them won seats, Worker's Party almost certainly had Central Rochdale and one or two other wards there, and Reform probably took one or two of the Makerfield wards as well as probably Squires Gate in Blackpool.
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 153
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Post by birkinabe on Jul 22, 2024 11:42:45 GMT
I would guess that Yorkshire and the Humber also has each of those except for the Workers Party present (and even then I wouldn't fully discount the possibility of them winning Park in Halifax, though this would have been tight).
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Post by londonseal80 on Jul 24, 2024 20:16:21 GMT
Surrey will be interesting to see if Labour did okay in some of the affluent wards in Reigate but failed to carry the counties grottiest wards in Woking and Epsom because of the tactical vote for the Lib Dem’s.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 25, 2024 17:05:35 GMT
East Anglia is fun..  2019 for comparison  |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 25, 2024 20:30:37 GMT
Surprised how few wards you've got Labour carrying in SW Norfolk. Presumably you're modelling a fairly chunky margin in Thetford?
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Post by pepperminttea on Jul 25, 2024 21:31:42 GMT
Surprised how few wards you've got Labour carrying in SW Norfolk. Presumably you're modelling a fairly chunky margin in Thetford? I imagine Truss came a poor third in Thetford (vote share collapsing to the mid teens) with Labour getting in the low 40s. Labour probably polled low 20s in the rural wards which wouldn't have been enough to win any of them, but the margin would have been quite low due to the Tory-Reform-Indy split. This along with narrowly eking out a victory in Downham Market narrowly won Labour the day. Out of any constituency Labour won, this is the main one that I can't really see any way of them holding onto next time (maybe if the Tories run Truss again next time idk haha). |
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