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Post by mattb on Jul 17, 2024 17:54:34 GMT
Peckham was the only ward where Labour exceeded 70% on my figures. The highest Conservative share was 62.8% in Stanmore (Harrow East). This is likely to be the highest share in the nation (I have worked out notionals for Hertfordshire and there are a number of wards along the Middlesex border where they scored over 60% but lower than the figure in Stanmore. The only other contender would likely be somewhere in Epping Forest (most likely Chigwell Village) where of course they may be assisted by the absence of a Reform candidate) Any chance of ward maps for Herts? |
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Jul 17, 2024 18:16:37 GMT
I'm pretty sure Andrew Feinstein carried St Pancras & Somers Town. Our canvass returns only found two Labour voters there compared to about 50 for Feinstein. I feel very uncertain that a canvass which seems to have been of less than 1% of voters in a ward can really be expected to establish such a concrete conclusion. It might just about work if the voters canvassed represented a genuinely and completely random sample of the ward's entire voting population, but the methods usually associated with a canvass seem highly unsuited to give any guarantee of this - if anything, some characteristics of those methods would seem likely to introduce a level of bias which would completely invalidate any such conclusion until and unless a far higher percentage of the ward's voters had been canvassed. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jul 17, 2024 18:27:17 GMT
I'm pretty sure Andrew Feinstein carried St Pancras & Somers Town. Our canvass returns only found two Labour voters there compared to about 50 for Feinstein. I feel very uncertain that a canvass which seems to have been of less than 1% of voters in a ward can really be expected to establish such a concrete conclusion. It might just about work if the voters canvassed represented a genuinely and completely random sample of the ward's entire voting population, but the methods usually associated with a canvass seem highly unsuited to give any guarantee of this - if anything, some characteristics of those methods would seem likely to introduce a level of bias which would completely invalidate any such conclusion until and unless a far higher percentage of the ward's voters had been canvassed. My description would be delusional. |
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Post by batman on Jul 17, 2024 18:39:22 GMT
It is inconceivable that Starmer could have lost that ward in the context of his overall result. I would almost invariably trust Pete's work on matters such as this, he is very accurate & reliable
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 17, 2024 18:48:56 GMT
Peckham was the only ward where Labour exceeded 70% on my figures. The highest Conservative share was 62.8% in Stanmore (Harrow East). This is likely to be the highest share in the nation (I have worked out notionals for Hertfordshire and there are a number of wards along the Middlesex border where they scored over 60% but lower than the figure in Stanmore. The only other contender would likely be somewhere in Epping Forest (most likely Chigwell Village) where of course they may be assisted by the absence of a Reform candidate) Any chance of ward maps for Herts? I was doing them as you spoke |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 17, 2024 18:55:31 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 17, 2024 18:56:53 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 17, 2024 19:03:10 GMT
I'm pretty sure Andrew Feinstein carried St Pancras & Somers Town. Our canvass returns only found two Labour voters there compared to about 50 for Feinstein. I feel very uncertain that a canvass which seems to have been of less than 1% of voters in a ward can really be expected to establish such a concrete conclusion. It might just about work if the voters canvassed represented a genuinely and completely random sample of the ward's entire voting population, but the methods usually associated with a canvass seem highly unsuited to give any guarantee of this - if anything, some characteristics of those methods would seem likely to introduce a level of bias which would completely invalidate any such conclusion until and unless a far higher percentage of the ward's voters had been canvassed. @weld more or less told as that he and his colleagues almost exclusively canvassed Bengali and Somalian households in the ward, in other words Muslims. It is conceivable that Feinstein did win a plurality amongst that sub-set of the electorate (I have Starmer carrying the ward by less than 2 to 1) but of course they are very far from being a majority in that ward (or even a plurality) - this is no Shadwell |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2024 19:20:29 GMT
I feel very uncertain that a canvass which seems to have been of less than 1% of voters in a ward can really be expected to establish such a concrete conclusion. It might just about work if the voters canvassed represented a genuinely and completely random sample of the ward's entire voting population, but the methods usually associated with a canvass seem highly unsuited to give any guarantee of this - if anything, some characteristics of those methods would seem likely to introduce a level of bias which would completely invalidate any such conclusion until and unless a far higher percentage of the ward's voters had been canvassed. @weld more or less told as that he and his colleagues almost exclusively canvassed Bengali and Somalian households in the ward, in other words Muslims. It is conceivable that Feinstein did win a plurality amongst that sub-set of the electorate (I have Starmer carrying the ward by less than 2 to 1) but of course they are very far from being a majority in that ward (or even a plurality) - this is no Shadwell We canvassed a pretty large estate in the ward, but maybe I overestimate its electoral weight. Out of interest, how did you calculate the results and if you've done them for every ward which I think you have, where did Feinstein do best? I can tell you based on canvassing returns that Primrose Hill seemed to be Feinstein's weakest area, with Regents Park and St Pancras & Somers Town the best area for him. He almost certainly won a majority of Muslim voters I think, and possibly a much higher percentage. The Muslim GOTV for Feinstein was highly organised and most mosques in the seat were very enthusiastic about him. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 17, 2024 19:31:06 GMT
@weld more or less told as that he and his colleagues almost exclusively canvassed Bengali and Somalian households in the ward, in other words Muslims. It is conceivable that Feinstein did win a plurality amongst that sub-set of the electorate (I have Starmer carrying the ward by less than 2 to 1) but of course they are very far from being a majority in that ward (or even a plurality) - this is no Shadwell We canvassed a pretty large estate in the ward, but maybe I overestimate its electoral weight. Out of interest, how did you calculate the results and if you've done them for every ward which I think you have, where did Feinstein do best? I can tell you based on canvassing returns that Primrose Hill seemed to be Feinstein's weakest area, with Regents Park and St Pancras & Somers Town the best area for him. He almost certainly won a majority of Muslim voters I think, and possibly a much higher percentage. The Muslim GOTV for Feinstein was highly organised and most mosques in the seat were very enthusiastic about him. Clearly the proportion of muslims in a ward would be the main indicator of electoral support for Feinstein therefore StP&ST is indeed the highest share at 27% followed by Regents Park 23% and Kings Cross 21%. Lowest share in Primrose Hill at 14%. It may have been a bit more polarised than that I suppose, but of course muslims live throughout the constituency. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2024 19:33:37 GMT
We canvassed a pretty large estate in the ward, but maybe I overestimate its electoral weight. Out of interest, how did you calculate the results and if you've done them for every ward which I think you have, where did Feinstein do best? I can tell you based on canvassing returns that Primrose Hill seemed to be Feinstein's weakest area, with Regents Park and St Pancras & Somers Town the best area for him. He almost certainly won a majority of Muslim voters I think, and possibly a much higher percentage. The Muslim GOTV for Feinstein was highly organised and most mosques in the seat were very enthusiastic about him. Clearly the proportion of muslims in a ward would be the main indicator of electoral support for Feinstein therefore StP&ST is indeed the highest share at 27% followed by Regents Park 23% and Kings Cross 21%. Lowest share in Primrose Hill at 14%. It may have been a bit more polarised than that I suppose, but of course muslims live throughout the constituency. SPST is extremely polarised between the new flats around the station and Somers Town which could be another country. There are £10m flats in King's Cross. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 19, 2024 16:32:20 GMT
| | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | WP | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | Hertsmere | 42.9% | 28.6% | 8.6% | 13.8% | 4.7% | | 1.0% | | | Watford | 23.8% | 36.3% | 16.9% | 10.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | | 0.4% | | Three Rivers | 33.8% | 19.9% | 25.4% | 14.0% | 5.2% | | | 1.7% | | Dacorum | 28.6% | 26.6% | 25.7% | 13.9% | 5.0% | | | 0.2% | | St Albans | 22.7% | 9.0% | 54.4% | 8.2% | 5.3% | | | 0.4% | | Welwyn Hatfield | 34.9% | 39.6% | 6.5% | 13.1% | 5.8% | | | 0.1% | | Broxbourne | 37.0% | 30.3% | 5.5% | 21.3% | 5.2% | | | 0.6% | | East Hertfordshire | 31.5% | 35.7% | 8.4% | 15.3% | 8.6% | | | 0.4% | | Stevenage | 24.4% | 43.5% | 7.7% | 18.2% | 5.9% | | | 0.3% | | North Hertfordshire | 27.7% | 40.3% | 11.4% | 14.6% | 5.8% | | | 0.2% |
| | | | | | | | | | Hertfordshire | 30.2% | 30.0% | 19.1% | 13.9% | 5.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| | | | | | | | | | Luton | 14.8% | 40.3% | 5.5% | 11.1% | 5.3% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 0.1% | | Central Bedfordshire | 33.4% | 33.8% | 9.4% | 16.8% | 5.2% | | | 1.4% | | Bedford | 30.3% | 36.5% | 10.9% | 13.4% | 5.5% | 1.3% | 2.2% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Bedfordshire | 27.9% | 36.1% | 8.8% | 14.4% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 0.7% |
Well that's a relief.. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 19, 2024 17:13:50 GMT
 | | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Harlow | 29.7% | 40.7% | 2.6% | 21.6% | 5.1% | | 0.4% | | | Epping Forest | 43.1% | 27.2% | 10.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 1.1% | | | Brentwood | 34.9% | 24.1% | 13.4% | 23.4% | 3.9% |
| 0.4% | | | Basildon | 30.8% | 29.4% | 4.8% | 28.3% | 4.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | | | Thurrock | 23.1% | 38.0% | 2.8% | 27.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% | | | Castle Point | 38.2% | 23.1% | 3.3% | 30.2% | 5.2% |
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| | | Southend on Sea | 30.5% | 37.5% | 6.1% | 17.6% | 6.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | | | Rochford | 34.7% | 26.8% | 9.5% | 22.7% | 6.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | | | Maldon | 36.5% | 22.8% | 11.3% | 23.9% | 4.9% | 0.6% |
| | | Chelmsford | 34.8% | 16.1% | 27.6% | 16.8% | 3.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | | | Uttlesford | 35.3% | 30.3% | 10.8% | 15.1% | 5.7% | 2.8% |
| | | Braintree | 35.1% | 29.0% | 5.4% | 21.7% | 6.9% | 1.9% |
| | | Colchester | 30.8% | 35.1% | 11.3% | 16.9% | 5.4% | 0.5% |
| | | Tendring | 28.8% | 22.2% | 5.4% | 38.1% | 4.8% |
| 0.7% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Essex | 32.9% | 28.7% | 9.5% | 21.9% | 5.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Jul 19, 2024 17:28:50 GMT
| | Con | Lab | LD | Ref | Grn | WP | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | Hertsmere | 42.9% | 28.6% | 8.6% | 13.8% | 4.7% | | 1.0% | | | Watford | 23.8% | 36.3% | 16.9% | 10.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | | 0.4% | | Three Rivers | 33.8% | 19.9% | 25.4% | 14.0% | 5.2% | | | 1.7% | | Dacorum | 28.6% | 26.6% | 25.7% | 13.9% | 5.0% | | | 0.2% | | St Albans | 22.7% | 9.0% | 54.4% | 8.2% | 5.3% | | | 0.4% | | Welwyn Hatfield | 34.9% | 39.6% | 6.5% | 13.1% | 5.8% | | | 0.1% | | Broxbourne | 37.0% | 30.3% | 5.5% | 21.3% | 5.2% | | | 0.6% | | East Hertfordshire | 31.5% | 35.7% | 8.4% | 15.3% | 8.6% | | | 0.4% | | Stevenage | 24.4% | 43.5% | 7.7% | 18.2% | 5.9% | | | 0.3% | | North Hertfordshire | 27.7% | 40.3% | 11.4% | 14.6% | 5.8% | | | 0.2% |
| | | | | | | | | | Hertfordshire | 30.2% | 30.0% | 19.1% | 13.9% | 5.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| | | | | | | | | | Luton | 14.8% | 40.3% | 5.5% | 11.1% | 5.3% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 0.1% | | Central Bedfordshire | 33.4% | 33.8% | 9.4% | 16.8% | 5.2% | | | 1.4% | | Bedford | 30.3% | 36.5% | 10.9% | 13.4% | 5.5% | 1.3% | 2.2% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Bedfordshire | 27.9% | 36.1% | 8.8% | 14.4% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 0.7% |
No party was highlighted as having topped the poll in St Albans district, so I tried to fix it. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 20, 2024 6:01:40 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 20, 2024 6:26:55 GMT
Peckham was the only ward where Labour exceeded 70% on my figures. The highest Conservative share was 62.8% in Stanmore (Harrow East). This is likely to be the highest share in the nation (I have worked out notionals for Hertfordshire and there are a number of wards along the Middlesex border where they scored over 60% but lower than the figure in Stanmore. The only other contender would likely be somewhere in Epping Forest (most likely Chigwell Village) where of course they may be assisted by the absence of a Reform candidate) Chigwell Row 61.2% So I've identified seven wards so far where the Conservatives exceeded 60%: Stanmore (Harrow East) 62.8% Moor Park & Eastbury (SW Herts) 62.1% Chigwell Row (Epping Forest) 61.2% Canons (Harrow East) 60.9% Aldenham East (Hertsmere) 60.8% Northaw & Cuffley (Hertsmere) 60.6% Bushey Heath (Hertsmere) 60.4% It is possible I suppose that these may be exceeded by wards in Richmond Yorks or in Gavin Williamson's weird Staffordshire seat, but both of these tend to be more politically uniform so I doubt it. |
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Post by aargauer on Jul 20, 2024 6:34:56 GMT
Peckham was the only ward where Labour exceeded 70% on my figures. The highest Conservative share was 62.8% in Stanmore (Harrow East). This is likely to be the highest share in the nation (I have worked out notionals for Hertfordshire and there are a number of wards along the Middlesex border where they scored over 60% but lower than the figure in Stanmore. The only other contender would likely be somewhere in Epping Forest (most likely Chigwell Village) where of course they may be assisted by the absence of a Reform candidate) Chigwell Row 61.2% So I've identified seven wards so far where the Conservatives exceeded 60%: Stanmore (Harrow East) 62.8% Moor Park & Eastbury (SW Herts) 62.1% Chigwell Row (Epping Forest) 61.2% Canons (Harrow East) 60.9% Aldenham East (Hertsmere) 60.8% Northaw & Cuffley (Hertsmere) 60.6% Bushey Heath (Hertsmere) 60.4% It is possible I suppose that these may be exceeded by wards in Richmond Yorks or in Gavin Williamson's weird Staffordshire seat, but both of these tend to be more politically uniform so I doubt it. Little Aston and Stonall? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 20, 2024 6:57:57 GMT
Chigwell Row 61.2% So I've identified seven wards so far where the Conservatives exceeded 60%: Stanmore (Harrow East) 62.8% Moor Park & Eastbury (SW Herts) 62.1% Chigwell Row (Epping Forest) 61.2% Canons (Harrow East) 60.9% Aldenham East (Hertsmere) 60.8% Northaw & Cuffley (Hertsmere) 60.6% Bushey Heath (Hertsmere) 60.4% It is possible I suppose that these may be exceeded by wards in Richmond Yorks or in Gavin Williamson's weird Staffordshire seat, but both of these tend to be more politically uniform so I doubt it. Little Aston and Stonall? doubtful I think given the Tories only got 32% in Tamworth and there's a few other solid Tory wards in the Lichfield district part of the seat. The Labour vote has been creeping up a bit in Little Aston anyway as it's got more Asian. Still very Tory of course, but not quite as monolithic as it once was |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 20, 2024 8:27:38 GMT
It's notable that the Conservative vote has held up much better in the likes of Hertsmere and Broxbourne than in places like East Hertfordshire and North Hertfordshire which were traditionally just as safe if not safer.
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 20, 2024 8:29:29 GMT
Little Aston and Stonall? doubtful I think given the Tories only got 32% in Tamworth and there's a few other solid Tory wards in the Lichfield district part of the seat. The Labour vote has been creeping up a bit in Little Aston anyway as it's got more Asian. Still very Tory of course, but not quite as monolithic as it once was Eastcote or Northwood wards in Ruislip Northwood Pinner perhaps? |
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