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Post by andrewp on Jul 19, 2024 10:37:39 GMT
An update on the statistics for the by elections held in this local electoral year, following the May 2024 local elections.
Following the 4 elections held on the 18th July, there have now been 82 ordinary by elections since 2nd May 2024.
The Conservatives have defended 21- Held 15 and lost 6- 5 to Labour and 1 to RefUK ( retention rate 71% ) and have gained 4
Labour have defended 44- held 40 and lost 4, 2 to the Greens, 1 to the Conservatives and 1 to the Liberal Democrat’s ( retention rate 91%) and have gained 7
The Lib Dem’s have defended 10, held 6 and lost 4 - 2 to Labour and 1 each to the Conservatives and SNP ( retention rate 60%) and have gained 1
The Greens have defended 2, held 2 ( retention rate 100%) and have gained 2
RefUK have gained. 1 seat
SNP have gained 1 seat
There have been 5 by elections for a seat previously won by an Independent, 3 were won by another Independent and 2 were gained by the Conservatives.
Overall totals and net changes
Con 19 (-2)
Lab 47 (+3)
LD 7 (-3)
Green 4 (+2)
Ind 3 (-2)
RefUK 1 (+1)
SNP 1 (+1)
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 19, 2024 10:56:38 GMT
Kintyre and the Islands. First preferences SNP 728 Con 322 Ind 322 LD 281 FA 25 So not just a win but quite a convincing one too. How long did the SNP's winless byelection run go back previously? |
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Post by andrewp on Jul 19, 2024 11:03:39 GMT
Kintyre and the Islands. First preferences SNP 728 Con 322 Ind 322 LD 281 FA 25 So not just a win but quite a convincing one too. How long did the SNP's winless byelection run go back previously? November 2022 I think. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 19, 2024 11:09:56 GMT
Majority in Little Illford is bigger because NI was the only clear challenger but in Beckton it was split between NI and Greens Wouldn't one expect that to work the other way round, if anything? |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jul 19, 2024 11:11:01 GMT
So not just a win but quite a convincing one too. How long did the SNP's winless byelection run go back previously? November 2022 I think. Buckie ward, Moray, 3 Nov 2022 |
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Post by stodge on Jul 19, 2024 11:40:18 GMT
I see the Newham results have been microanalysed to death before I could get to the laptop - never mind.
A little context - in Plaistow North last November, Sophia Naqvi got a 46.3% swing off Labour but as I remarked elsewhere, I thought her performance in West Ham & Beckton at the GE two weeks ago underwhelming. She got just under 20% and a 22% swing from Labour but the Green vote rose in the constituency as well which isn't a huge surprise as both Royal Albert and Royal Victoria are potential Green targets at the 2026 local election. My suspicion is Naqvi did well in Plaistow, the Greens did well in the Docks areas but Labour dominated elsewhere albeit with a substantial drop in vote share.
The Beckton by election yesterday saw the Green vote halve from the 2022 elections Beckton has a Muslim community but it's not as dominant as Plaistow or Plashet - indeed, Beckton is better known for its Lithuanian community. It's also got strong ties to the University of East London (UEL) and student accommodation. Labour will nonetheless be relieved even with barely 39% of the vote and the competition between the anti-Labour vote options clearly played to Labour's advantage.
As for Little Ilford (just across the tube lines from me), it's complicated. There are significant Hindu and MUslim communities in the area which although geographically adjacent to East Ham and Ilford is more a part of Manor Park.
The Election Maps tweet quoted by @weld is inaccurate. Mirza was the Newham Independent candidate - the other Independent was one Vijay Parthiban.
Tahir Mirza had been the GE candidate in East Ham but Little Ilford is his patch and he won nearly 20% as an Independent in the 2022 local elections. That was of course before the whole Gaza episode began and while he's built on that to an extent, this was a real opportunity but Little Ilford isn't Plaistow South - yes, it has a Muslim community but it's not as dominant as Plaistow as I've commented. Mirza hit a kind of ceiling and while we don't know my suspicion would be he didn't do quite as well in the non-Muslim community.
An okay result for the LDs in Little Ilford - Akm Mahibur was the lead candidate in 2022 and got 15% so 12% is a small step back but in a closely-fought contest probably reasonable to hold onto most of his share.
The two big losers on the night were the Greens and the Conservatives - the latter continue to slide into irrelevance in this part of London and could well be fourth in 2026 behind Labour, the Newham Independents and the Greens in terms of vote share. The Greens have been hit badly by the coming of the Newham Independents who have usurped them as the anti-Labour vote in the Muslim community. However, in areas with fewer Muslims, the Greens will continue to be a challenge and IF the Gaza issue has lost some salience in 2026, it may well be the Greens will be able to regain support in areas like Beckton.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2024 11:42:36 GMT
I see the Newham results have been microanalysed to death before I could get to the laptop - never mind. A little context - in Plaistow North last November, Sophia Naqvi got a 46.3% swing off Labour but as I remarked elsewhere, I thought her performance in West Ham & Beckton at the GE two weeks ago underwhelming. She got just under 20% and a 22% swing from Labour but the Green vote rose in the constituency as well which isn't a huge surprise as both Royal Albert and Royal Victoria are potential Green targets at the 2026 local election. My suspicion is Naqvi did well in Plaistow, the Greens did well in the Docks areas but Labour dominated elsewhere albeit with a substantial drop in vote share. The Beckton by election yesterday saw the Green vote halve from the 2022 elections Beckton has a Muslim community but it's not as dominant as Plaistow or Plashet - indeed, Beckton is better known for its Lithuanian community. It's also got strong ties to the University of East London (UEL) and student accommodation. Labour will nonetheless be relieved even with barely 39% of the vote and the competition between the anti-Labour vote options clearly played to Labour's advantage. As for Little Ilford (just across the tube lines from me), it's complicated. There are significant Hindu and MUslim communities in the area which although geographically adjacent to East Ham and Ilford is more a part of Manor Park. The Election Maps tweet quoted by @weld is inaccurate. Mirza was the Newham Independent candidate - the other Independent was one Vijay Parthiban. Tahir Mirza had been the GE candidate in East Ham but Little Ilford is his patch and he won nearly 20% as an Independent in the 2022 local elections. That was of course before the whole Gaza episode began and while he's built on that to an extent, this was a real opportunity but Little Ilford isn't Plaistow South - yes, it has a Muslim community but it's not as dominant as Plaistow as I've commented. Mirza hit a kind of ceiling and while we don't know my suspicion would be he didn't do quite as well in the non-Muslim community. An okay result for the LDs in Little Ilford - Akm Mahibur was the lead candidate in 2022 and got 15% so 12% is a small step back but in a closely-fought contest probably reasonable to hold onto most of his share. The two big losers on the night were the Greens and the Conservatives - the latter continue to slide into irrelevance in this part of London and could well be fourth in 2026 behind Labour, the Newham Independents and the Greens in terms of vote share. The Greens have been hit badly by the coming of the Newham Independents who have usurped them as the anti-Labour vote in the Muslim community. However, in areas with fewer Muslims, the Greens will continue to be a challenge and IF the Gaza issue has lost some salience in 2026, it may well be the Greens will be able to regain support in areas like Beckton. A quick whip round Beckton (you cannot get there quickly, mind you and it took me an hour with tube and DLR) shows you how offing polarised the ward is. Yikes. |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Jul 19, 2024 12:32:13 GMT
I see the Newham results have been microanalysed to death before I could get to the laptop - never mind. A little context - in Plaistow North last November, Sophia Naqvi got a 46.3% swing off Labour but as I remarked elsewhere, I thought her performance in West Ham & Beckton at the GE two weeks ago underwhelming. She got just under 20% and a 22% swing from Labour but the Green vote rose in the constituency as well which isn't a huge surprise as both Royal Albert and Royal Victoria are potential Green targets at the 2026 local election. My suspicion is Naqvi did well in Plaistow, the Greens did well in the Docks areas but Labour dominated elsewhere albeit with a substantial drop in vote share. The Beckton by election yesterday saw the Green vote halve from the 2022 elections Beckton has a Muslim community but it's not as dominant as Plaistow or Plashet - indeed, Beckton is better known for its Lithuanian community. It's also got strong ties to the University of East London (UEL) and student accommodation. Labour will nonetheless be relieved even with barely 39% of the vote and the competition between the anti-Labour vote options clearly played to Labour's advantage. As for Little Ilford (just across the tube lines from me), it's complicated. There are significant Hindu and MUslim communities in the area which although geographically adjacent to East Ham and Ilford is more a part of Manor Park. The Election Maps tweet quoted by @weld is inaccurate. Mirza was the Newham Independent candidate - the other Independent was one Vijay Parthiban. Tahir Mirza had been the GE candidate in East Ham but Little Ilford is his patch and he won nearly 20% as an Independent in the 2022 local elections. That was of course before the whole Gaza episode began and while he's built on that to an extent, this was a real opportunity but Little Ilford isn't Plaistow South - yes, it has a Muslim community but it's not as dominant as Plaistow as I've commented. Mirza hit a kind of ceiling and while we don't know my suspicion would be he didn't do quite as well in the non-Muslim community. An okay result for the LDs in Little Ilford - Akm Mahibur was the lead candidate in 2022 and got 15% so 12% is a small step back but in a closely-fought contest probably reasonable to hold onto most of his share. The two big losers on the night were the Greens and the Conservatives - the latter continue to slide into irrelevance in this part of London and could well be fourth in 2026 behind Labour, the Newham Independents and the Greens in terms of vote share. The Greens have been hit badly by the coming of the Newham Independents who have usurped them as the anti-Labour vote in the Muslim community. However, in areas with fewer Muslims, the Greens will continue to be a challenge and IF the Gaza issue has lost some salience in 2026, it may well be the Greens will be able to regain support in areas like Beckton. I understand that for personal reasons for the candidate, the Greens suspended their campaign in Beckton before the weekend. I strongly doubt it would have been a Green gain in any case, but probably made the result worse than it otherwise may have been. |
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Jul 19, 2024 12:52:40 GMT
Going quite a long way back (and boundaries may not be exactly the same of course) but Little Ilford was once the Liberal stronghold in Newham
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Post by batman on Jul 19, 2024 13:04:54 GMT
Little Ilford ward is probably recognisable enough from those days, not least because it lies right on the borough boundary.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 19, 2024 13:11:57 GMT
'Stronghold' is overstating it rather. They won it once - in 1982 - then lost it at the following election. It was a stronghold in the same way as Leigh was a Conservative stronghold..
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jul 19, 2024 13:32:59 GMT
Little Ilford ward is probably recognisable enough from those days, not least because it lies right on the borough boundary. The current Little Ilford is a big different from the historical one. The historical one was extending further west and did not include anything south of the Gospel Oak to Barking line. |
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Post by stodge on Jul 19, 2024 13:57:41 GMT
Little Ilford ward is probably recognisable enough from those days, not least because it lies right on the borough boundary. The current Little Ilford is a big different from the historical one. The historical one was extending further west and did not include anything south of the Gospel Oak to Barking line. I found this on the Newham website: www.newham.gov.uk/downloads/file/3484/new-ward-map-2022The Little Ilford Estate has been cut along, I would guess, Fourth Avenue with the western section in Manor Park. To the north, the Ward now includes land which is part of the City of London Cemetery and Crematorium (a huge place - Mrs Stodge's grandparents are buried there). To the south, the border crosses the Gospel Oak-Barking line and follows Browning Road (the route of the 147 bus) down to Sibley Grove (the other side is Plashet) and then east to the footbridge over the tube lines which, if you cross it, takes you into Wall End. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 19, 2024 17:06:45 GMT
Kintyre and the Islands. First preferences SNP 728 Con 322 Ind 322 LD 281 FA 25 So not just a win but quite a convincing one too. How long did the SNP's winless byelection run go back previously? though of course forgetting about that pesky little "by" the run ended two weeks ago when they held several seats and even notionally gained one already |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jul 19, 2024 17:13:34 GMT
Count 2
SNP 731 (+3)
Kelly 327 (+5)
Con 326 (+4)
Lib Dem 286 (+5) out
Count 3
SNP 793 (+62)
Kelly 397 (+70)
Con 369 (+43) out
in fact the SNP victory is already certain at this point
Count 4
SNP 832 (+39)
Kelly 531 (+134)
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Post by phil156 on Jul 19, 2024 17:21:17 GMT
Kintyre and the Islands. First preferences SNP 728 Con 322 Ind 322 LD 281 FA 25 Andrew you dont happen to have the percentages comparisons from last time at all? Cheers if you do |
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Post by andrewp on Jul 19, 2024 17:36:37 GMT
Kintyre and the Islands. First preferences SNP 728 Con 322 Ind 322 LD 281 FA 25 Andrew you dont happen to have the percentages comparisons from last time at all? Cheers if you do This is not very neat because of different candidate patterns but SNP 43.4% ( + 13.5 from May 2022, +14.3 from Sep 22 BE) Con 19.2% ( +9.6 from May 2022, +8.5 from Sep 22) Ind 19.2% ( new Ind) LD 16.7% (+0.3 from May 2022, + 2 from Sep 22) FA 1.5% ( new) No Ind and Lab from May 2022, no Green or Lab from Sep 22) |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jul 20, 2024 9:47:04 GMT
GWBWI
SNP +43
Grn +31
Lab +16
LDm -11
Con -16
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 20, 2024 9:50:19 GMT
Maybe the first time the SNP have topped your table?
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Post by timrollpickering on Jul 20, 2024 11:02:31 GMT
I imagine the general election gave Labour a boost? The by- lection postal votes would have been dropping around election day in Newham. Does that sound about right Tim? Trying to remember but a mixture of moving, campaigning, not being the agent myself and not having a postal vote in the by-election myself means it's hard to remember the exact date. |
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