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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 18, 2024 22:57:13 GMT
Has the Newham Independent wave been checked? Up to this month they won both the byelections they stood in, but they fell short in all four wards in July.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 18, 2024 23:00:19 GMT
OXFORD Marston
ROBINSON, Kate Josephine (Green Party) 640
MAJEED, Nasreen (Independent Oxford Alliance) 596
VINNICOMBE, Charlotte Louise (Labour Party) 495
HATFIELD, Duncan Valentine (The Conservative Party Candidate) 70
NORMAN, Kathy (Liberal Democrat) 55
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jul 18, 2024 23:05:53 GMT
Yep, as I insinuated, we've given up on Little Ilford, so it's all hands on deck in Beckto. Well it's not as if Labour can ill afford to lose Little Ilford. I think the opposition parties will go two for two and Labour loses both, but I may be wrong on Beckton. Lol |
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pl
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Post by pl on Jul 18, 2024 23:14:36 GMT
Has the Newham Independent wave been checked? Up to this month they won both the byelections they stood in, but they fell short in all four wards in July. I imagine the general election gave Labour a boost? The by- lection postal votes would have been dropping around election day in Newham. Does that sound about right Tim? |
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jdc
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Post by jdc on Jul 18, 2024 23:22:19 GMT
OXFORD Marston ROBINSON, Kate Josephine (Green Party) 640 MAJEED, Nasreen (Independent Oxford Alliance) 596 VINNICOMBE, Charlotte Louise (Labour Party) 495 HATFIELD, Duncan Valentine (The Conservative Party Candidate) 70 NORMAN, Kathy (Liberal Democrat) 55 Actually vaguely amusing after local social media being nothing but pro-traffic sound and fury for the last fortnight
Tactically validates the Labour party tacking pro-motorist in this ward, I suspect, otherwise they'd have lost more votes to IOA than they'd gained from the Greens and probably let them through the middle. If they have to lose they'd probably prefer it that way round than the other.
Impossible situation for East Oxford Labour in general though, for the next little while local elections are going to be fought as a referendum on an issue where their stance is broadly speaking "we can see both sides and we don't take a strong view". What happens to people who stand in the middle of the road...
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Post by phil156 on Jul 18, 2024 23:31:01 GMT
Good night for the Ind all main parties failed be interesting to know the Oxford percentages
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2024 2:12:54 GMT
Little Ilford Labour 884 Conservative 104 Newham Independents 738 Green 103 Independent 163 Liberal Democrats 274 Spoils 12 Independents combined 901; Labour 884. A good result for Labour, but in part due to a split opposition of sorts. Beckton's result was a similar story but with Greens. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Jul 19, 2024 3:45:42 GMT
Good night for the Ind all main parties failed be interesting to know the Oxford percentages Green 34.5 IOA 32.1 Labour 26.7 Con 3.8 LD 3.0 |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2024 3:56:48 GMT
An excellent result for the Greens in my old seat, and I'm pleased to see them holding on despite very obviously split opposition. I think the Greens can build on that. There is some suggestion that Carlsberg will acquire Marston so I hope this result, surely beefed up by (Radcliffe) CAMRA fans, puts paid to that idea.
While in Newham we may see the tide going out vis-a-vis independents' challenges, here's percentages. Labour drops 10% on average in its East London bailiwicks.
The constituencies where these council wards are are nowadays super safe Labour too, not that that guarantees voters bequeath the party big wins locally.
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Post by batman on Jul 19, 2024 5:20:02 GMT
You do realise that Marston’s brewing empire is not the same as Marston the area of Oxford surely? They are connected only by the name.
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Post by phil156 on Jul 19, 2024 5:44:27 GMT
Good night for the Ind all main parties failed be interesting to know the Oxford percentages Green 34.5 IOA 32.1 Labour 26.7 Con 3.8 LD 3.0 Thankyou so each Ind got 30% of the vote in each ward. I await to see the comparsion from 2022 election on this |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 19, 2024 5:50:01 GMT
You do realise that Marston’s brewing empire is not the same as Marston the area of Oxford surely? They are connected only by the name. No, surely not. Marston's brewery isn't based in Marston? Whatever, next? Theakston's not based in Theakston. Foster's not based in Foster? Maybe I purchased my alumni Radcliffe CAMRA membership too hastily, perhaps. |
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Jul 19, 2024 8:23:16 GMT
I was doing some leafletting in Beckton - Labour are clearly working the ward hard based on leaflet drops (this was around Galleons Reach DLR). I had to improvise with leaflets since the Greens never responded to me (something about wanting to actually win this election and eschewing dead weights), so you get a lot of crap through the letterbox saying 'turn over a new leaf' or 'a fresh start for Beckton' etc and I've used up all my good note paper. A nice day for it, however. Yep, as I insinuated, we've given up on Little Ilford, so it's all hands on deck in Beckto. by given up, did you mean “confident we have it so safe to move” if so that is pretty accurate data and a confident agent considering how (relitively) close it was OTOH if given up meant ‘we have lost it’ your data was rubbish! |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jul 19, 2024 8:34:12 GMT
Yep, as I insinuated, we've given up on Little Ilford, so it's all hands on deck in Beckto. by given up, did you mean “confident we have it so safe to move” if so that is pretty accurate data and a confident agent considering how (relitively) close it was OTOH if given up meant ‘we have lost it’ your data was rubbish! Actually it was more my hunch, I'm from Tower Hamlets not Newham, so not intimately involved with the campaign, just came to help out on polling day. It was only my hunch as I thought Little Ilford was prime NI terrority and has similar demographics and community politics as TH and Beckton is not and therefore more winnable. |
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Post by batman on Jul 19, 2024 9:21:45 GMT
and yet the Labour majorities were pretty similar.
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jdc
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Post by jdc on Jul 19, 2024 9:26:57 GMT
Yep, as I insinuated, we've given up on Little Ilford, so it's all hands on deck in Beckto. by given up, did you mean “confident we have it so safe to move” if so that is pretty accurate data and a confident agent considering how (relitively) close it was OTOH if given up meant ‘we have lost it’ your data was rubbish! One of my first posts on a predecessor site was "Labour moving campaigners out of X as they think they can take Y".
Some people had indeed gone to Y but that was more an oversupply in X than a tactical decision.
I was mainly posting it as I knew the local Lib Dems were reading and my friend was the Labour candidate in the theoretically more winnable X.
The Lib Dems did react, or at least for whatever reason did divert people to the theoretically safer Y. Anyway in the end Labour won 2 of the 3 seats in X and all the seats in Y. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 19, 2024 9:53:39 GMT
and yet the Labour majorities were pretty similar. In fact slightly bigger in the seat that had supposedly been "given up on". Or maybe it shows the decision to prioritise Beckton on the day (assuming that is what actually happened) was in fact correct? |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jul 19, 2024 10:12:22 GMT
Kintyre and the Islands is an SNP win!
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Post by elinorhelyn on Jul 19, 2024 10:26:59 GMT
Majority in Little Illford is bigger because NI was the only clear challenger but in Beckton it was split between NI and Greens
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jul 19, 2024 10:31:05 GMT
Kintyre and the Islands. First preferences
SNP 728
Con 322
Ind 322
LD 281
FA 25
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