Local Council by-elections 18th July 2024

[Tony Otim]

The first of the new parliament:

ARGYLL & BUTE UA; Kintyre & The Islands (Lib Dem died)
Candidates:
HORN, Anne (SNP)
KELLY, Donald (Independent)
MACDONALD, Douglas (Liberal Democrat)
McMANUS, Alan (Freedom Alliance)
REDMAN, Elizabeth (Conservative)

Sep 22by: Ind (Redman) 591; SNP 525; LD 265; Con 194; Grn 176; Lab 55 (Ind gain from Ind)
2022: SNP 863; INd (McAlpine) 680; LD 474; Ind (Redman) 474; Con 276; Lab 122
2017: SNP 821; Con 648; LD 626; Ind (McAlpine) 411; Lab 160; Grn 134
2012: SNP 610; Ind (McAlpine) 584; Con 553; LD 540; Lab 225; GRn 73; Ind 19
2007: LD 1131; Ind (McAlpine) 608; SNP 482; Ind 342; Con 300;

Anne Horn was the SNP councillor for the ward from 2007-2022 when she didn’t re-stand. The Independent elected in the last ny-election was the Conservative elected in 2017 (and Conservative candidate in 2012) who failed to defend his seat as an independent in 2022, having been expelled from the Tories for alleged Islamophobia. He still sits as an independent, not sure if Elizabeth Redman (Con) is any relation. Donald Kelly (Ind) is a former Conservative councillor for South Kintyre (2017-22) – he was deselected, but held his seat as an independent before resigning in August 2023 (at least, I think it’s the same Donald Kelly and his address is in that ward). Alan McManus contested that South Kintyre by-election for the Freedom Alliance.

Current Council: SNP 12; Con 9; Ind 7; LD 4; Grn 1; Ind Unionist 1; Lab 1; 1 vacancy



NEWHAM LBC; Beckton (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
ABBASI, Shahzad (Newham Independent)
ALAN-RUMSBY, James (Liberal Democrat)
CLIFFORD, Maria (Conservative)
JUSTINE, Levoir (Green)
YOUNG, Blossom (Labour)

2022: Lab 1386, 1263, 1103; Grn 873, 826, 797; Con 423, 400, 363; CPA 182, 123, 115

In 2022, James Alan-Rumsby stood for the Lib Dems in Stratford Olympic Park.


NEWHAM LBC; Little Ilford (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
ALAM, Akhtarul (Labour)
FAHEEM, Mohamadu (Conservative)
MIRZA, Tahir (Newham Independent)
OTENG, Joe (Green)
PARTHIBAN, Bijay (Independent)
RAHMAN, Akm Mahibur (Liberal Democrat)

2022: Lab 2200, 2159, 2089; Ind 667; LD 512, 384; Con 512, 373, 356; Grn 301, 291, 150; CPA 130, 123, 120

Tahir Mirza is also an independent candidate in East Ham constituency on 4th July and was also the indy here last time. Ahibur Akm (presumably the same person) was the top Lib Dem here last time.
Akhtarul Alam was the unsuccessful Labour candidate in last year’s Plaistow North by-election. Mohammed Faheem stood for the Conservatives in East Ham ward in 2022.

Current Council: Lab 56 + mayor; Newham Ind 3; Grn 2; Ind 1; 4 vacancies



OXFORD DC; Marston (Grn resigned)
Candidates:
HATFIELD, Duncan Valentine (Conservative)
MAJEED, Nasreen (Independent Oxford Alliance)
NORMAN, Kathy (Liberal Democrat)
ROBINSON, Kate Josephine (Green)
VINNICOMBE, Charlotte Louise (Labour)

2024: Lab 868; Grn 718; Con 288; LD 69
2022: Grn 1085; Lab 839; Con 309; LD 74
2021: Lab 1059, 461; Ind 921; Grn 831, 278; Con 411; LD 123, 82

Vacancy is for the 2022-26 term. The Green and Conservative candidates stood here in May (the Tory also in 2022), the Lib Dem stood in Rose Hill & Iffley and the Labour candidate in Cutteslowe & Sunnymead, but had stood here in 2022.

Current Council: Lab 20; LD 9; Grn 7; Ind Oxf All 4; Oxf Community Ind 3; Oxf Ind Grp 2; Real Ind 2; 1 vacancy

[Deleted]

Argyll & Bute (Kintyre etc) - CON gain

Newham (Beckton) - GRN gain

Newham (Little Ilford) - Newham IND gain

Oxford (Marston) - GRN hold

A good week for Greens and Independents I think. 

[jdc]

Jul 8, 2024 2:13:56 GMT @weld said:

Argyll & Bute (Kintyre etc) - CON gain

Newham (Beckton) - GRN gain

Newham (Little Ilford) - Newham IND gain

Oxford (Marston) - GRN hold

A good week for Greens and Independents I think. 

I don't fancy the Greens' chances in Marston. I'd (with regret) suggest the Independent will take it.

Reasons

1) Despite being very central Marston Ward is quite car-heavy (only about a quarter of households are car-free) and moves to reduce private motoring are the "hot topic".

2) Marston benefits from historic measures to reduce through traffic on residential streets, but is now facing the consequences of neighbouring areas getting those measures. Anecdotally, many Marston residents liked the arrangement where they lived in de facto cul-de-sacs but could drive through others' residential streets.

3) This might not be a majority except

    a) of the car-free households mentioned above, a large proportion and a big chunk of the Green vote are probably students, many of whom are away

    b) for reasons I don't understand fully the Lib Dem Green "pact" seems to have broken down at local election level (even as the by-election is fought as a single issue referendum on a policy they are implementing in coalition) so they are standing on basically the same platform, with no hope but potentially enough to spoil the Greens' night.

4) Labour won't give up on a ward they sometimes win (the only saving grace that might work in the Greens' favour is that they've put up a candidate who is moderately pro-motorist and thus may split the independent vote more than the Green one). [Edit - and that they're on something of a national high].

[timrollpickering]

I have just moved house and now live in Beckton. For the first time since turning 18 I have a by-election in my home ward (there was one when I was 17).

It will also be my first vote at a polling station in over twenty years as I transferred my registration too late to get a postal vote in time.

[Deleted]

Jul 13, 2024 16:42:10 GMT timrollpickering said:

I have just moved house and now live in Beckton. For the first time since turning 18 I have a by-election in my home ward (there was one when I was 17).

It will also be my first vote at a polling station in over twenty years as I transferred my registration too late to get a postal vote in time.

Vote Green to get Labour out. 

[stodge]

www.opennewham.co.uk/news/even-more-rests-on-the-by-election-results

The Open Newham take on the Beckton and Little Ilford by-elections this coming Thursday.

I was in Little Ilford this morning - the only posters I saw were for the Independent Vijay Parthiban who is an Education Consultant by trade.

[phil156]

English ones count on Thursday night, Scottish Friday morning

[John Chanin]

medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-four-council-by-elections-of-18th-july-2024-a8742fba726d

[elinorhelyn]

Will be doing GOTV today in Beckton, I've decidedly chosen to go to Beckton rather than Little Ilford

[timrollpickering]

Jul 18, 2024 9:12:39 GMT elinorhelyn said:

Will be doing GOTV today in Beckton, I've decidedly chosen to go to Beckton rather than Little Ilford

Say Hi if you see me.

[Deleted]

I was doing some leafletting in Beckton - Labour are clearly working the ward hard based on leaflet drops (this was around Galleons Reach DLR). I had to improvise with leaflets since the Greens never responded to me (something about wanting to actually win this election and eschewing dead weights), so you get a lot of crap through the letterbox saying 'turn over a new leaf' or 'a fresh start for Beckton' etc and I've used up all my good note paper. A nice day for it, however. 

[timrollpickering]

How many of us are out here?!

[john07]

Jul 18, 2024 15:40:16 GMT @weld said:

I was doing some leafletting in Beckton - Labour are clearly working the ward hard based on leaflet drops (this was around Galleons Reach DLR). I had to improvise with leaflets since the Greens never responded to me …. 

Can’t think why?

[Deleted]

Jul 18, 2024 16:31:48 GMT john07 said:

Jul 18, 2024 15:40:16 GMT @weld said:

I was doing some leafletting in Beckton - Labour are clearly working the ward hard based on leaflet drops (this was around Galleons Reach DLR). I had to improvise with leaflets since the Greens never responded to me …. 

Can’t think why?

Well let's see how they do.

[elinorhelyn]

Jul 18, 2024 15:40:16 GMT @weld said:

I was doing some leafletting in Beckton - Labour are clearly working the ward hard based on leaflet drops (this was around Galleons Reach DLR). I had to improvise with leaflets since the Greens never responded to me (something about wanting to actually win this election and eschewing dead weights), so you get a lot of crap through the letterbox saying 'turn over a new leaf' or 'a fresh start for Beckton' etc and I've used up all my good note paper. A nice day for it, however. 

Yep, as I insinuated, we've given up on Little Ilford, so it's all hands on deck in Beckto.

[Deleted]

Jul 18, 2024 17:52:56 GMT elinorhelyn said:

Jul 18, 2024 15:40:16 GMT @weld said:

I was doing some leafletting in Beckton - Labour are clearly working the ward hard based on leaflet drops (this was around Galleons Reach DLR). I had to improvise with leaflets since the Greens never responded to me (something about wanting to actually win this election and eschewing dead weights), so you get a lot of crap through the letterbox saying 'turn over a new leaf' or 'a fresh start for Beckton' etc and I've used up all my good note paper. A nice day for it, however. 

Yep, as I insinuated, we've given up on Little Ilford, so it's all hands on deck in Beckto.

Well it's not as if Labour can ill afford to lose Little Ilford. I think the opposition parties will go two for two and Labour loses both, but I may be wrong on Beckton. 

[timrollpickering]

Beckton turnout 1552 13.55%

[timrollpickering]

Little Ilford turnout 2277 18.13%

[timrollpickering]

Beckton

Newham Independents 476
Liberal Democrats 96
Conservative 144
Green 228
Labour 597

Spoils 11

[timrollpickering]

Little Ilford

Labour 884
Conservative 104
Newham Independents 738
Green 103
Independent 163
Liberal Democrats 274

Spoils 12