batman
Labour
Posts: 12,361 
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on May 28, 2024 7:45:14 GMT
SDP - you got no seats at all. Not a sausage. Bugger all. Are you at all disappointed by this performance?
|
|
|
|
Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on May 28, 2024 7:51:23 GMT
SDP - you got no seats at all. Not a sausage. Bugger all. Are you at all disappointed by this performance?
Serenely Dictated Positivity: It wasn't the Wurst result we've ever had, votes are up.
|
|
|
|
Post by froome on May 28, 2024 12:08:01 GMT
SDP 631 All other parties 0 I might revise my prediction before July 4th.  |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
|
Post by The Bishop on May 28, 2024 12:51:05 GMT
ALL FURTHER PREDICTIONS NOT USING THE 10 CATOGORIES MENTIONED IN THE RULES WILL NOT BE ACCEPTED! no need to shout OH YES THERE IS!! Says Brian Blessed  |
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
|
Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 28, 2024 13:03:06 GMT
OH YES THERE IS!! Says Brian Blessed Will you be giving us your seat total verdict on this thread? |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
|
Post by The Bishop on May 28, 2024 13:04:28 GMT
Soz but I don't do betting or predictions. Just let the chips fall down where they may.
|
|
|
|
Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on May 28, 2024 13:06:22 GMT
Soz but I don't do betting or predictions. Just let the chips fall down where they may. That's usually down the side of the cooker. |
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
|
Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 28, 2024 13:12:20 GMT
Soz but I don't do betting or predictions. Just let the chips fall down where they may. I never predict anything, and I never will. Paul Gascoigne |
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 12,361
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on May 28, 2024 17:26:21 GMT
OH YES THERE IS!! Says Brian Blessed HE'S BACKING THE LIB DEMS |
|
haroldthepolitician
Labour
'You can be just what you want to be, Just as long as you don't try and compete with me' - Jarvis
Posts: 216
|
Post by haroldthepolitician on May 28, 2024 19:34:36 GMT
28 MAY PREDICTION
Conservatives - 135
Labour - 421
SNP - 18
Liberal Democrats - 50
Plaid Cymru - 4
Green - 2
Reform - 0
Workers Party - 0
SDP - 0
OTHERS - 1 (Corbyn in Islington North)
|
|
|
|
Post by islington on May 30, 2024 9:53:25 GMT
Soz but I don't do betting or predictions. Just let the chips fall down where they may. I never predict anything, and I never will. Paul Gascoigne But that's not a prediction - it's a statement of intent.
If it had been a prediction, then a man like Mr Gascoigne, notoriously punctilious about the finer points of English grammar, would have said 'shall' instead of 'will'.
|
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
|
Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 30, 2024 9:55:55 GMT
I never predict anything, and I never will. Paul Gascoigne But that's not a prediction - it's a statement of intent.
If it had been a prediction, then a man like Mr Gascoigne, notoriously punctilious about the finer points of English grammar, would have said 'shall' instead of 'will'.
|
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on May 30, 2024 10:22:23 GMT
In a similar vein, this reminds me of the Ron Atkinson quote which went along the lines of.. "I promised never to comment on referees and I wont make an exception for that prick!"  |
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on May 30, 2024 21:35:42 GMT
For the purposes of the illogical and impertinent demands of the rules of the competition, my prediction (as of 30th May) is as follows:
Con 215
Lab 360
SNP 23
LD 30
PC 2
Green 1
Reform 0
WPB 0
SDP 0
Others 0
For the purposes of the vast majority of ordinary normal decent psephologists who understand how elections work, my prediction is as follows:
Labour 360
Conservative 215
Lib Dem 30
Green 1 (Brighton Pavilion, not Bristol Central)
Plaid Cymru 2
SNP 23
Speaker 1
DUP 7
Sinn Fein 7
SDLP 2
Alliance 2 (Down North, Belfast East)
This prediction was based on
(a) using the Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll (sample size 12,000), particularly for the purposes of regional swing variations
(b) going through all the constituencies’ notional results from 2019, individually
(c) assuming a national total of vote share of approximately Labour 39% Conservative 27%
(d) assuming that the Reform Party isn’t going to come anywhere near winning seats, albeit probably getting a few second places (in other words, the net swing from Conservative to Labour is the important factor, without needing to worry about the size of the Reform vote share)
As I was going through the constituencies - particularly in southern England - I was struck by the relatively large number of constituencies in which the swings required would make it a three-way marginal, with some doubt over the direction of the swing or tactical voting according to local circumstances. I was also slightly bewildered by the unusual range of safe Conservative seats which would become vulnerable - and I had to remind myself that the same thing happened already in 1997. I also realised that I was being overly cautious in reducing the swings slightly from the raw figures of my calculations.
This is very much a provisional temporary prediction, pending adjustments according to what happens in the rest of the campaign. I probably didn’t allow for enough variation according to whether the main challenger is Labour or Lib Dem. Also I will want to adjust some of my predictions according to what the SOPNs say (particularly in Northern Ireland).
|
|
nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,447
|
Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 30, 2024 21:40:11 GMT
For the purposes of the illogical and impertinent demands of the rules of the competition, my prediction (as of 30th May) is as follows: Con 215 Lab 360 SNP 23 LD 20 PC 2 Green 1 Reform 0 WPB 0 SDP 0 Others 0 For the purposes of the vast majority of ordinary normal decent psephologists who understand how elections work, my prediction is as follows: Labour 360 Conservative 215 Lib Dem 30 Green 1 (Brighton Pavilion, not Bristol Central) Plaid Cymru 2 SNP 23 Speaker 1 DUP 7 Sinn Fein 7 SDLP 2 Alliance 2 (Down North, Belfast East) This prediction was based on (a) using the Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll (sample size 12,000), particularly for the purposes of regional swing variations (b) going through all the constituencies’ notional results from 2019, individually (c) assuming a national total of vote share of approximately Labour 39% Conservative 27% (d) assuming that the Reform Party isn’t going to come anywhere near winning seats, albeit probably getting a few second places (in other words, the net swing from Conservative to Labour is the important factor, without needing to worry about the size of the Reform vote share) As I was going through the constituencies - particularly in southern England - I was struck by the relatively large number of constituencies in which the swings required would make it a three-way marginal, with some doubt over the direction of the swing or tactical voting according to local circumstances. I was also slightly bewildered by the unusual range of safe Conservative seats which would become vulnerable - and I had to remind myself that the same thing happened already in 1997. I also realised that I was being overly cautious in reducing the swings slightly from the raw figures of my calculations. This is very much a provisional temporary prediction, pending adjustments according to what happens in the rest of the campaign. I probably didn’t allow for enough variation according to whether the main challenger is Labour or Lib Dem. Also I will want to adjust some of my predictions according to what the SOPNs say (particularly in Northern Ireland). well done that man for showing his 'working out' |
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on May 31, 2024 5:04:06 GMT
For the purposes of the illogical and impertinent demands of the rules of the competition, my prediction (as of 30th May) is as follows: Con 215 Lab 360 SNP 23 LD 20 PC 2 Green 1 Reform 0 WPB 0 SDP 0 Others 0 For the purposes of the vast majority of ordinary normal decent psephologists who understand how elections work, my prediction is as follows: Labour 360 Conservative 215 Lib Dem 30 Green 1 (Brighton Pavilion, not Bristol Central) Plaid Cymru 2 SNP 23 Speaker 1 DUP 7 Sinn Fein 7 SDLP 2 Alliance 2 (Down North, Belfast East) This prediction was based on (a) using the Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll (sample size 12,000), particularly for the purposes of regional swing variations (b) going through all the constituencies’ notional results from 2019, individually (c) assuming a national total of vote share of approximately Labour 39% Conservative 27% (d) assuming that the Reform Party isn’t going to come anywhere near winning seats, albeit probably getting a few second places (in other words, the net swing from Conservative to Labour is the important factor, without needing to worry about the size of the Reform vote share) As I was going through the constituencies - particularly in southern England - I was struck by the relatively large number of constituencies in which the swings required would make it a three-way marginal, with some doubt over the direction of the swing or tactical voting according to local circumstances. I was also slightly bewildered by the unusual range of safe Conservative seats which would become vulnerable - and I had to remind myself that the same thing happened already in 1997. I also realised that I was being overly cautious in reducing the swings slightly from the raw figures of my calculations. This is very much a provisional temporary prediction, pending adjustments according to what happens in the rest of the campaign. I probably didn’t allow for enough variation according to whether the main challenger is Labour or Lib Dem. Also I will want to adjust some of my predictions according to what the SOPNs say (particularly in Northern Ireland). well done that man for showing his 'working out' But he may need to explain how he comes to lose 10 LibDem seats between the two sets of predictions? |
|
|
|
Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on May 31, 2024 5:24:28 GMT
well done that man for showing his 'working out' But he may need to explain how he comes to lose 10 LibDem seats between the two sets of predictions?
The Hippos ate them.
|
|
|
|
Post by johnloony on May 31, 2024 7:44:40 GMT
Oh poo. I blame Jeremy Corbyn for distracting my fingers.
The correct figures are:
For the purposes of the illogical and impertinent demands of the rules of the competition, my prediction (as of 30th May) is as follows:
Con 215
Lab 360
SNP 23
LD 30
PC 2
Green 1
Reform 0
WPB 0
SDP 0
Others 0
I have edited my original post to put in the correct number, but because of the tyrannical obstinacy of the competition Dictator / Tsar it was necessary for me to clutter up the thread with another post.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on May 31, 2024 8:00:15 GMT
Oh poo. I blame Jeremy Corbyn for distracting my fingers. The correct figures are: For the purposes of the illogical and impertinent demands of the rules of the competition, my prediction (as of 30th May) is as follows: Con 215 Lab 360 SNP 23 LD 30 PC 2 Green 1 Reform 0 WPB 0 SDP 0 Others 0 I have edited my original post to put in the correct number, but because of the tyrannical obstinacy of the competition Dictator / Tsar it was necessary for me to clutter up the thread with another post. To be fair if you're going to have to plot potentially dozens of predictions on a spreadsheet, it makes sense to have them all submitted with the same parties in the same order. The inclusion of the SDP in the list of parties is eccentric though.. |
|
batman
Labour
Posts: 12,361
Member is Online
|
Post by batman on May 31, 2024 8:14:40 GMT
extremely eccentric. I am considering not bothering with this format
|
|
