Prediction Competition - April 2024

[iainbhx]

Apr 18, 2024 20:52:19 GMT casualobserver said:

Very surprised to see the clumping of predictions for East Cambs around a substantial LD hold.

Perhaps you should join in and bring your substantial experience to beat us all.

[Robert Waller]

Awaiting official results, of course, but I think that despite the late faults rightleaning may have won the week!

Well done.

[The Bishop]

Apr 18, 2024 20:52:19 GMT casualobserver said:

Given the political impact we’ve seen (especially in by-elections) over the last couple of years in and around Cambridge from the proposed Cambridge Congestion charge (hastily abandoned by Labour and the LibDems when they saw how electorally unpopular it was) along with other anti-car measures, I’d have thought that at least one punter may have gone for a Conservative victory there.

As it turned out, no prediction actually doing so was quite sensible.

[batman]

maybe his observations have been too casual.

[casualobserver]

Apr 19, 2024 11:54:20 GMT The Bishop said:

Apr 18, 2024 20:52:19 GMT casualobserver said:

Given the political impact we’ve seen (especially in by-elections) over the last couple of years in and around Cambridge from the proposed Cambridge Congestion charge (hastily abandoned by Labour and the LibDems when they saw how electorally unpopular it was) along with other anti-car measures, I’d have thought that at least one punter may have gone for a Conservative victory there.

As it turned out, no prediction actually doing so was quite sensible.

I hadn’t realised that Ely was quite so far from Cambridge where there had been such a backlash against introduction of a congestion charge.

Nevertheless I note that every single entrant in the competition underestimated the level of Conservative support.

[batman]

ANGUS, Arbroath W., Letham & Friockheim : C 45 SNP 33 Lab 11 LD 7 Green 4. C win on transfers

CARDIFF, Grangetown : Lab 42 PC/Green/CG 23 C 13 LD 8 Propel 6 Ind Abdi Samater 5 Ind Hovord 3

[kevinf]

Angus
SNP 35, Con 29, Lab 14, LD 12, Green 10. Con win.
Cardiff
Lab 39, PCetc 24, LD 12, Con 10, Ind Hovord 7, Ind Abdi 4, Propel 4

[Tony Otim]

Angus: Con 38.3; SNP 38.1; Lab 11.0; LD 7.9; Grn 4.7
Cardiff: Lab 53.5; PC etc 24.9; Con 7.4; LD 5.6; Samater 5.3; Propel 2.9; Hovord 0.4

[Robert Waller]

Angus: Con 40; SNP 36.5; Lab 10.5; LD 8; Grn 5. Con to win after transfers.


Cardiff: Lab 52; PC etc 27; Con 7; LD 6; Samater 4; Propel 3; Hovord 1

[andrewp]

Angus. Con 42 SNP 35 Lab 11 LD 7 Green 5 . Con win

Cardiff. Lab 55 PC et al 24 Con 7 LD 5 Samater 5 Prop 2 Hovord 2

[carolus]

Angus, "Arbroath West, Letham & Friockheim":
Con 40, SNP 30, Lab 15, LD 8, Green 7. Con win.

Cardiff, Grangetown:
Lab 55, Con 10, PCG 25, LD 5, Propel 2, Ind (Abdi Samater) 2, Ind (Hovord) 1

[corradino]

Angus, Arbrouth West etc: SNP 38, Con 34, Lab 11, LD 9, Green 8. Con win in transfers.

Cardiff, Grangetown: Lab 48, PC etc 30, Con 8, LD 4, Abdi Samater 4, Propel 3, Hovord 3.

[rightleaning]

Angus, Arbrouth West etc: Con 38, SNP 36, LD 11, Lab 8, Green 7. Con win in transfers.
Cardiff, Grangetown: Lab 50, PC etc 28, Con 10, LD 5, Abdi Samater 3, Propel 2, Hovord 2.

[iainbhx]

ANGUS UA: Arbroath West, Letham & Friockheim: Con 36 SNP 34 LDm 15 Lab 10 Grn 5 Con win on transfers
CARDIFF UA: Grangetown: Lab 45 PC/Grn 32 Ind Abdi Samater 9 LDm 7 Con 5 Propel 1.5 Ind Hovord 0.5

[robbienicoll]

9 entries to close the month, with no johnloony, manchesterman or peterl. Otherwise all on time and correct.

Arbroath West, Letham and Friockheim, Angus: 100% Conservative gain from Independent after transfers, with 7 Conservative ahead on first preferences and corradino and kevinf SNP ahead on first preferences.

Grangetown, Cardiff: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 13% (iainbhx) to 31% (andrewp).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mwAD7Lxy-uZljLEklIMEuRDpqFxJMxVL714QKKbrGaA/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!